Severe Thunderstorm Warning 202, NWS Springfield, MO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
343 PM CDT Sat Jun 1 2019

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Sunday)
Issued at 300 PM CDT Sat Jun 1 2019

Isolated showers/tstms have popped up over the past hour east of
KSGF. Updrafts so far haven't been sustained, and we have only
seen a few isolated lightning strikes. Believe this activity will
be diurnally driven with continued chances for a few storms this
afternoon. Shear supports multicell/pulse type convection with
gusty winds/small hail.

Overall better chances for scattered storms will be tied to a cold
front that now extends from eastern IA-northern MO into northeast
KS. Seeing some pockets of cu develop and isolated tstms along
the front attm. Most high res short term guidance does eventually
break out scattered convection in the frontal zone to varying
degrees as it moves southeast into central and southern MO. Strong
instability with mlcapes close to 2500-3500 j/kg into the early
evening along with 0-6km bulk shear increasing to 30-40kts will
support large hail/damaging winds (dcapes 1000-1200 j/kg) with
isolated storms. Storms will move south into our cwfa during the
evening hours then gradually weaken and/or shift southeast of the
area after 06z.

Weak high pressure will move into southern IA/northern MO by
Sunday afternoon with the remains of the sfc front extending from
southeast KS in far sw MO and northern AR. Some diurnally driven
convection will be possible in those areas.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 300 PM CDT Sat Jun 1 2019

Scattered convection will be possible on an almost daily basis
through this period. Mid level heights will build somewhat
Monday/Tuesday with more limited chances. The ridge will shift
east and weaken as a shortwave moves into the central/southern
Plains Wednesday/Thursday with overall better chances for
showers/thunderstorms. Will need to watch for some heavier
rainfall potential during this time. Guidance varies by Friday and
Saturday on the eastward progress of the upper system. Rain
chances may linger into Friday/Saturday favoring the eastern cwfa,
but confidence by this time is lower than normal.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Sunday afternoon)
Issued at 338 PM CDT Sat Jun 1 2019

KSGF/KJLN/KBBG tafs: VFR early with scattered thunderstorms
possible by 03z-07z with a frontal passage. Brief IFR
visibilities will occur with heavier showers. Weak high pressure
will build into northern MO late in the period behind the front.
and will watch trends for lowering ceilings after the fropa.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...DSA
LONG TERM...DSA
AVIATION...DSA

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Springfield MO
409 PM CDT Sat Jun 1 2019

KSZ073-097-101-MOZ055>058-066>071-077>083-088>098-101>106-022115-
Bourbon-Crawford-Cherokee-Benton-Morgan-Miller-Maries-Vernon-
St. Clair-Hickory-Camden-Pulaski-Phelps-Barton-Cedar-Polk-Dallas-
Laclede-Texas-Dent-Jasper-Dade-Greene-Webster-Wright-Newton-
Lawrence-Christian-Douglas-Howell-Shannon-McDonald-Barry-Stone-
Taney-Ozark-Oregon-
409 PM CDT Sat Jun 1 2019

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of the Missouri
Ozarks and extreme southeast Kansas.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight.

Weather hazards expected...

  Limited tornado risk.
  Elevated hail risk.
  Elevated thunderstorm wind damage risk.
  Limited lightning risk.

DISCUSSION...

Scattered thunderstorms will affect the region, mainly this
evening.

One area of storms over south central Missouri will produce wind
gusts of up to 50 mph and dime sized hail with isolated stronger
storms through 8 pm.

Scattered storms will also occur with a front that will move
south into the outlook area tonight. Stronger instability and
vertical wind shear will support a few strong to severe storms
with hail up to two inches in diameter and wind gusts of 60 mph.
This activity will weaken toward midnight as it begins to shift
south and east of the area.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday.

Periodic thunderstorms are expected across the outlook area for
much of next week. While it is too early to tell precisely where
thunderstorms will track, a renewed risk for flooding may
materialize over parts of the outlook area. The best chances for
heavier rain appears to be Wednesday and Thursday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed in the next three hours for
central Missouri.

&&

More detailed information can be accessed at:
http://www.weather.gov/sgf/sitrep

This product in graphical format...along with other weather...
hydrological and climate information...at
http://www.weather.gov/sgf

DSA

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Springfield MO
400 PM CDT Sat Jun 1 2019

MOZ106-012145-
Oregon MO-
400 PM CDT Sat Jun 1 2019

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHWESTERN OREGON COUNTY UNTIL
445 PM CDT...

At 400 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 12
miles west of Alton, or 13 miles east of West Plains, moving south at
20 mph.

Penny size hail and wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Grand Gulf State Park...          Thayer...
Koshkonong...                     Rover...
Couch...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

&&

LAT...LON 3676 9167 3679 9148 3650 9132 3650 9167
TIME...MOT...LOC 2100Z 337DEG 19KT 3672 9161

Wise