Severe Thunderstorm Warning 197, NWS Springfield, MO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
108 PM CDT Wed May 29 2019

...AVIATION UPDATE...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 332 AM CDT Wed May 29 2019

An upper level low is currently located across Nebraska early
this morning. The low level jet has increased across the region
ahead of the low. Convection has developed across eastern Oklahoma
into western Arkansas in the low level jet axis. Some weak echos
have recently started developing on radar across southern
Missouri, indicating convection trying to develop. Instability
continues to increase across the area as the cap weakens. Expect
scattered convection to start developing across southern Missouri
early this morning. There could be some strong to marginally
severe storms with this activity, with hail to the size of
quarters the main risk mainly along and southeast of a Cassville
to Salem Missouri line through the morning hours.

Instability should increase across the area today, will have to
watch the convection this morning, as if it blows up too much
could have an impact on instability later today. But it should
move out of the area this morning and with southerly flow and a
moist air mass spreading north recovering should be able to occur.
Deep level shear will remain strong enough to support organized
convection. Instability will also increase with over 3000 J/kg of
MLCAPE possible. The cap should weakening as shortwave energy
moves over the area. This should result in bands of convection
developing that will move northeast across the area, w/best
potential generally along and southeast of the I-44 corridor.
With expected lift and weakening of the cap there should be good
coverage in storm development this afternoon into the evening
hours. Storms will come in clusters or rounds with short breaks
between them. There will be the potential for severe storms today,
with large hail to two inches in size and damaging wind gusts to
70mph the main risk with the stronger storms. Low level wind shear
will be on the weaker side for much of the day, so the overall
tornado risk will be low. Low level wind shear does increase
slightly this evening, but models are showing surface winds
staying more veered so its more an isolated risk today. With
clusters of storms, there could be boundaries around and that
could also support a brief spin ups if storms are able to ride the
boundaries.

Storms may linger into the early Thursday as the low
tracks east. Given the expected coverage, storms may track over
the same locations of previous storms this afternoon into tonight
leading to the potential for additional flooding, mainly across
southern Missouri. These locations have not received the heaviest
rains of late, but still are above normal on rainfall this year.
Will keep the flash flood watch going as is through tonight.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday)
Issued at 332 AM CDT Wed May 29 2019

A few showers and maybe a storm or two will remain possible across
the eastern Ozarks Thursday morning. Cooler conditions will occur
Thursday as highs only warm into the low-mid 70s, and wouldn't be
totally surprised if a few places only warm into the upper 60s.
Lows will drop into the 50s Thursday night. Friday will warm into
the upper 70s to the lower 80s with highs in the low to mid 80s
this weekend into early next week. An upper ridge will remain west
of the area this weekend into early next week. This will leave
the area in an upper level northwest flow pattern aloft. Some
upper level disturbances will track through the flow at times,
and will bring the potential for additional showers and storms at
times. The more precise timing and locations affected will be more
of a short term forecast issue.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Thursday afternoon)

Pilots flying in and out of the southwest Missouri airports will
need to monitor radar trends through the rest of the afternoon and
evening.

Thunderstorms have developed, and will be impacting a large
section of the Missouri Ozarks this afternoon. The heaviest and
most persistent thunderstorms will occur over the Branson airport,
where severe weather and flash flooding will be possible in this
region. Airfield directly impacted by storms will experience a
reduction in ceilings and visibilities.

Storms are expected to shift east of the area by this evening or
overnight.

Safe Travels.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...Flash Flood Watch through Thursday morning for MOZ082-083-
     090>098-101>106.

KS...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...Wise
LONG TERM...Wise
AVIATION...Cramer

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Springfield MO
1244 PM CDT Wed May 29 2019

KSZ073-097-101-MOZ055>058-066>071-077>083-088>098-101>106-301745-
Bourbon-Crawford-Cherokee-Benton-Morgan-Miller-Maries-Vernon-
St. Clair-Hickory-Camden-Pulaski-Phelps-Barton-Cedar-Polk-Dallas-
Laclede-Texas-Dent-Jasper-Dade-Greene-Webster-Wright-Newton-
Lawrence-Christian-Douglas-Howell-Shannon-McDonald-Barry-Stone-
Taney-Ozark-Oregon-
1244 PM CDT Wed May 29 2019

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of the Missouri
Ozarks and extreme southeast Kansas.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight.

Weather hazards expected...

  Limited tornado risk.
  Elevated hail risk.
  Elevated thunderstorm wind damage risk.
  Elevated flooding risk.
  Significant lightning risk.

DISCUSSION...

Numerous thunderstorms will impact portions of extreme southeast
Kansas and the Missouri Ozarks this afternoon and evening. Some of
the more intense storms could produce hail up to two inches in
diameter and damaging wind gusts up to 70 mph. There is a very
limited risk for a weak tornado or two. Locations south of
Interstate 44 will have the greatest risk for severe weather
today.

These storms will contain very high rainfall rates. Therefore, any
locations that receive training thunderstorms will experience a
risk for dangerous flash flooding.

Thunderstorms are expected to exit the Ozarks late this evening or
overnight.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.

Scattered storms may be possible at times this weekend into early
next week.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

 Spotter activation may be needed later today or tonight for areas
across southern Missouri.

&&

More detailed information can be accessed at:
http://www.weather.gov/sgf/sitrep

This product in graphical format...along with other weather...
hydrological and climate information...at
http://www.weather.gov/sgf

Cramer

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