Severe Thunderstorm Warning 115, NWS Springfield, MO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
1132 PM CDT Sat May 18 2019

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Sunday)
Issued at 357 PM CDT Sat May 18 2019

An upper level impulse was making its way across the Rockies into
the Southern Plains at mid afternoon. A line of strong to severe
thunderstorms was currently making its way across the region in
advance of this system. The main severe threat will be with the
passage of this line from late afternoon into this evening. Expect
stratiform rain to continue for 2-3 hours after passage of the
initial line.

Showers and thunderstorms are currently redeveloping over western
Kansas and CAMS models are indicating that this activity should
hold together and move through during the late evening into the
overnight hours. Looking for anywhere from one-half inch to 1.5
inches of additional rainfall overnight. If training cells should
develop...amounts could be higher.

The surface should make its way across the region during the
morning bringing the rain to an end. Overnight lows should be in
the upper 50s to lower 60s with highs Sunday in the 70s.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday Night through Saturday)
Issued at 357 PM CDT Sat May 18 2019

Sunday afternoon into Monday morning should be relatively quiet as
the next trough within the upper level flow begins to make its way
across the Rockies. From Monday afternoon through the remainder of
the forecast period will be unsettled. A negatively tilted trough
lifts out of the Rockies into the Plains. As it does...it will
bring a warm front across the region Tuesday morning. This will
put the area within the warm sector and set the region up once
again for another severe weather episode Tuesday afternoon and
evening.

As this is happening...the upper level subtropical ridge begins to
build over the southeastern states which will allow the surface
front to stall and meander across the Mid-Mississippi Valley. This
will keep the Gulf open and continue to allow warm moist air to
permeate the region. Will need to monitor the situation closely as
the potential for excessive rainfall will exist during this
period.

Temperatures will be close to seasonal normals through Tuesday
will once again warm to daytime highs in the 80s and overnight
lows in the 60s as the Gulf airmass returns to the region.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Sunday night)
Issued at 1130 PM CDT Sat May 18 2019

An upper level trough is currently located across the Plains and
will track across the area overnight. Thunderstorms have developed
in Oklahoma and Kansas and will move east into portions of the
area overnight. Generally locations along and north of Hwy 60 will
have the better chances of seeing any storms. A few strong storms
with gusty winds and small hail will be possible. IFR conditions
will be possible with any storms.

Otherwise winds will be out of the south early in the TAF period
and will swing to the west overnight then to the north west on
Sunday morning behind a frontal passage. Ceilings should gradually
improve during the afternoon hours. Some drizzle may be possible
in the morning hours.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...Gaede
LONG TERM...Gaede
AVIATION...Wise

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Springfield MO
754 PM CDT Sat May 18 2019

KSZ073-097-101-MOZ055>058-066>071-077>083-088>098-101>106-200100-
Bourbon-Crawford-Cherokee-Benton-Morgan-Miller-Maries-Vernon-
St. Clair-Hickory-Camden-Pulaski-Phelps-Barton-Cedar-Polk-Dallas-
Laclede-Texas-Dent-Jasper-Dade-Greene-Webster-Wright-Newton-
Lawrence-Christian-Douglas-Howell-Shannon-McDonald-Barry-Stone-
Taney-Ozark-Oregon-
754 PM CDT Sat May 18 2019

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of the Missouri
Ozarks and extreme southeast Kansas.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Weather hazards expected...

  Limited hail risk.
  Limited thunderstorm wind damage risk.
  Limited lightning risk.
  Limited non thunderstorm wind risk.

DISCUSSION...

Wind gusts to around 30 mph will remain possible this evening
across portions of southwestern Missouri.

A few storms will be possible late this evening into the overnight
hours. Cloud to ground lightning will be the main risk. Hail to
the size of pennies and gusty winds could also be possible with a
few of the strongest storms.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday.

Another round of strong to severe thunderstorms may affect the
region on Tuesday. There will also be some potential for
flooding,mainly along and west of a line from Joplin to Osceola.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

  Spotter activation will not be needed through tonight.

&&

More detailed information can be accessed at:
http://www.weather.gov/sgf/sitrep

This product in graphical format...along with other weather...
hydrological and climate information...at
http://www.weather.gov/sgf

Wise

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