Severe Thunderstorm Warning 108, NWS Springfield, MO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
1237 PM CDT Sat May 18 2019

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)

We certainly have a very difficult forecast ahead of us today as
moisture and instability continues to increase within the Ozarks
airmass. An upper level speed max will approach the region from
the west, and force showers and thunderstorms.

Given moisture levels that are two standard deviations above
normal combined with synoptic large scale lift, I'm expecting
rainfall rates to be tremendous in some of these storms today. Any
locations that experiences a prolonged period of storms will need
to be closely monitored for a flash flood risk.

We will not be issuing a flood watch, since trying to pinpoint
any areas that will receive excessive rain is proving to be
difficult at this time. Therefore we utilized a super blend
approach in populating the rainfall forecasts. However, I will say
there are multiple models picking up on high rainfall rates,
suggesting that localized amounts of over 3 inches will be
possible through tonight.

There will also be a risk for severe weather, with all modes
possible. Utilizing a RAP environment/HRRR convective prog
statistical approach in forecasting short term severe weather, we
could receive a very busy episode of severe storms this afternoon.
The longer the storms arrive, the more unstable we get, which
will create a more volatile environment.

It's quite possible that a 2nd round of storms develops across
the region later tonight that will be associated with the main
upper level cold core. As a matter of fact, we think it's highly
likely, and a few of these storms could become organized as well.

It's possible that we have some lingering rainfall across central
Missouri early Sunday morning, however, most of the deep
convection will have exited the Ozarks by Sunday morning.
Overnight lows tonight will cool into the upper 50s to lower 60s.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Friday)

Other than some lingering showers in central Missouri Sunday
morning, almost all locations will remain dry on Sunday. A drier
continental airmass will spread across the region, bringing more
comfortable weather. Highs on Sunday will warm into the 70s.
Chilly conditions will follow Sunday night with lows ranging from
the upper 40s to lower 50s.

Another nice day is expected Monday, however, precipitation
chances will increase Monday evening into Monday night as another
storm system will be churning out west. It's possible that
excessive rain will occur over the Osage Plains of southeast
Kansas and west central Missouri, as many models are pinpointing
the eastern Plains as an area that could receive five to seven
inches of rain. WPC has a day 2 moderate risk area outlined over
the eastern Plains.

Medium range models sweep the main belt of forcing with this
system through the rest of southern Missouri on Tuesday, which
could force another episode of severe storms.

Models have been persistent with developing a summertime high over
the southeast region of the United States, with a left over
baroclinic zone shaping up somewhere across the nations
midsection. This could keep active weather alive across the Ozarks
through the rest of next work week. I'm thinking we will see more
changes in the models, so we won't get too confident in any
particular solution at this point.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Sunday afternoon)
Issued at 1229 PM CDT Sat May 18 2019

Line of convection currently approaching the area. Expect MVFR to
occasional IFR conditions within the strongest convective cells
and VFR conditions outside of the convective areas. Storms along
the initial front of the line could be severe with large hail and
strong winds possible.

Storms are expected to move through the terminal areas by 01z and
through the entire area by 03z. However...multiple rounds of
showers and thunderstorms will be possible into the overnight
period until the surface front moves through the area on Sunday
morning. With the frontal passage...winds will gradually veer to
a westerly direction and conditions will improve to VFR.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...Cramer
LONG TERM...Cramer
AVIATION...Gaede

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
143 PM CDT SAT MAY 18 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0141 PM     TSTM WND DMG     2 SE PITTSBURG          37.39N 94.68W
05/18/2019                   CRAWFORD           KS   FIRE DEPT/RESCUE

            POWER LINES DOWN 2 MILES SE OF PITTSBURG,
            KS.

&&

CKR

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