River Flood Warning 63, NWS Springfield, MO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
725 PM CDT Fri May 24 2019

...Mesoscale Discussion and Update to Aviation...

.MESOSCALE DISCUSSION...
Issued at 705 PM CDT Fri May 24 2019

Convection continues early this evening along the I-35 corridor
across Kansas and Oklahoma. For the most part, the convection has
grown upscale into clusters and line segments, however a few
supercell structures remain.

As we head into later this evening and the overnight period, this
activity should begin to shift to the east and northeast as cold
pools conglomerate and interact with a developing low level jet.
A few of these storms may still be severe as they move into
portions of extreme southeastern Kansas and west-central
Missouri.

Damaging wind gusts and hail up to the size of golf
balls would be the primary hazards, with the larger hail threat
being for any remaining supercells. There is a limited tornado
threat as low level wind shear will increase after dark. If any
tornadoes do occur, the atmosphere is not supportive of strong
tornadoes like we saw a few evenings ago.

We will also be keeping close tabs on the hydro situation. These
storms will be very efficient rainfall producers. If these storms
take on true upwind propagating characteristics, Corfidi vectors
are orientated towards the southeast at only around 15 knots.
Thus, we could see an elevated to locally significant flash
flooding potential develop over parts of southeastern Kansas and
west-central Missouri. The going Flash Flood Watch covers this
well.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 236 PM CDT Fri May 24 2019

Storms redeveloped earlier this afternoon along an outflow remnant
from last nights convection over west central MO and extreme
southeast KS. Since then, the outflow convection has become more
diffuse while the convection further west ahead of a frontal
boundary has become more robust with a couple of warnings near the
Wichita area. We earlier issued a flash flood watch for 5 counties
in the western CWA to account for 1) the initial convection along
the outflow and 2) the convection out west eventually shifting
into the western CWA later tonight. Area out there can absolutely
not take anymore heavy rain before it quickly runs off as flash
flooding.  There is also a slight risk of severe with this
activity through tonight, with hail and high winds the main risks.

Main focus with this forecast package with be with the convection
this afternoon and tonight, the severe and flooding chances.
Additional convection expected Saturday into Sunday and then again
Tuesday into Wednesday.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Saturday)
Issued at 236 PM CDT Fri May 24 2019

For this afternoon and tonight, CAMS models have come into better
agreement with more or less the dissipation of the outflow
convection currently over the area and the main concentration of
convection just to the west of the CWA this afternoon and tonight.
Forecast will depict this, however we have extended lower end pops
to the southeast, mainly northwest of the I-44 corridor. Flash
flood watch is for the 5 counties in the far western CWA. If some
of these storms can move into the area, then there will also be a
risk of large hail and damaging wind. There is a small tornado
risk, but this would mainly be northwest of the area. The storms
should lift northeast of the area on Saturday, which may affect
parts of southeast Kansas into central MO. Very moist conditions
will continue tonight which will keep lows in the mid 60s to low
70s. Highs on Saturday should range from around 80 in west central
MO to the mid 80s in south central MO.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday Night through Friday)
Issued at 236 PM CDT Fri May 24 2019

Convection on Saturday afternoon will once again be mainly to the
west of the area and may shift across more of the CWA late
Saturday night into Sunday as an upper level shortwave tracks
east across northern MO. Some ridging builds back into the area on
Sunday night into Monday, but by Tuesday we will see a strong
upper level system track across the northern into central plains
with a cold front moving into the area late Tuesday into Tuesday
night. This will bring the next best chance of strong to severe
storms across the northwest half of the area.

A Canadian air mass is progged to make it into the area on
Wednesday night into Thursday which will bring cooler and drier
air into the region.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Saturday evening)
Issued at 705 PM CDT Fri May 24 2019

Prevailing VFR conditions are expected through Saturday. A few
thunderstorms will be possible late tonight and early Saturday
morning, mainly around Joplin. MVFR and brief IFR will be
possible with any storms.

Surface winds will remain rather brisk out of the south with gusts
over 20 knots from late morning through the afternoon.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...Flash Flood Watch until 7 AM CDT Saturday for MOZ066-077.

KS...Flash Flood Watch until 7 AM CDT Saturday for KSZ073-097-101.

&&

MESOSCALE...Schaumann
SYNOPSIS...Lindenberg
SHORT TERM...Lindenberg
LONG TERM...Lindenberg
AVIATION...Schaumann

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Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Springfield MO
919 PM CDT Fri May 24 2019

KSZ073-250300-
Bourbon KS-
919 PM CDT Fri May 24 2019

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR BOURBON COUNTY UNTIL 1000 PM
CDT...

At 919 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from near Blue Mound to 8 miles north of Erie.
Movement was east at 40 mph.

Wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with these storms.

Locations impacted include...
Fort Scott...                     Marmaton...
Bronson...                        Uniontown...
Fulton...                         Redfield...
Mapleton...                       Harding...
Pawnee Station...                 Hiattville...
Petersburg...                     Hammond...
Devon...                          Garland...
Porterville...                    Xenia...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with these storms, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

&&

A Tornado Watch remains in effect until midnight CDT for southeastern
Kansas...and west central Missouri.

LAT...LON 3803 9508 3803 9461 3768 9462 3768 9508
TIME...MOT...LOC 0219Z 253DEG 34KT 3805 9507 3770 9525

Raberding

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Springfield MO
958 PM CDT Fri May 24 2019

KSZ073-097-101-250400-
Cherokee KS-Bourbon KS-Crawford KS-
958 PM CDT Fri May 24 2019

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR BOURBON...CHEROKEE AND CRAWFORD
COUNTIES UNTIL 1100 PM CDT...

At 958 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from Fulton to near Walnut to 7 miles southeast of
Edna. Movement was northeast at 50 mph.

Wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with these storms.

Locations impacted include...
Pittsburg...                      Fort Scott...
Baxter Springs...                 Frontenac...
Columbus...                       Galena...
Girard...                         Arma...
Marmaton...                       Cherokee...
Weir...                           Lowell...
Sherman...                        Mulberry...
Scammon...                        Chicopee...
Mccune...                         Franklin...
Bronson...                        Arcadia...

This includes Interstate 44 near mile marker 0.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with these storms, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

&&

A Tornado Watch remains in effect until midnight CDT for southeastern
Kansas.

LAT...LON 3803 9508 3804 9462 3700 9462 3700 9507
TIME...MOT...LOC 0258Z 242DEG 44KT 3803 9472 3753 9506 3701 9523

Raberding