Flash Flood Watch 1, NWS Springfield, MO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
1223 AM CDT Thu Apr 18 2019

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 225 PM CDT Wed Apr 17 2019

Visible satellite and observations continue to show a stratus layer
across the area and special 18z SGF sounding continues to show EML
above the stratus deck. Cold front stretched from western Iowa
into northeast KS and into the TX panhandle. Regional radar
was showing most of the convection at this point associated with
the low in Iowa and Minnesota, although some storms have started
to now form in the Texas panhandle. Most of the region still had a
thermal cap in place and should prevent convection from developing
until very late afternoon or early evening along the cold front.
The storms will be the main focus in the short term.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Thursday)
Issued at 225 PM CDT Wed Apr 17 2019

As mentioned in the synopsis, 18z soundings from SGF into the
southern plains showed a thermal cap in place which will likely
hold until this evening when convection should start to develop
along the front. The front will gradually work southeast into the
area this evening with strong to severe storms. By this time, we
are expecting most of the convection to become linear with the
frontal boundary with the main risk being damaging straight line
winds and some hail. If any bowing line segments can develop
towards the northeast, there could be a chance for a spin-up
tornado within the line segment. Most of the area will have a time
frame from mid-evening into the overnight hours for the severe
potential. Don't see much of a flooding risk, given the green-up
taking place and the progressive nature of the front, although
heavy rain is expected with the convection.

The convection will linger into Thursday morning over the eastern
Ozarks, but should come to an end during the afternoon hours. If
there is enough instability, then some strong to severe storms
will remain possible.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday Night through Wednesday)
Issued at 225 PM CDT Wed Apr 17 2019

Cooler temperatures will linger into Friday as the back side of
the upper low continues to push through. Highs will be from the
upper 50s to mid 60s.

We should begin to warm back up over the weekend, into the 70s as
an upper ridge builds in behind the upper trough. Models do show
some differences with the strength and timing of the next energy
on Sunday, but both have some showers/thunderstorms possible by
late in the day into Sunday night.

It looks to remain unsettled through the remainder of the long
term period with a slow moving upper trough and low closing off
over the region by the middle to later part of next week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Thursday night)
Issued at 1208 AM CDT Thu Apr 18 2019

Storms are headed toward the terminals early in the forecast
period ahead of a cold front moving toward the region. Expect
ceilings to vary between MVFR and IFR through mid morning with
winds shifting to the west and northwest over the next several
hours. By 15-18Z most areas should see VFR ceilings and some gusty
north winds.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

SYNOPSIS...Lindenberg
SHORT TERM...Lindenberg
LONG TERM...Lindenberg
AVIATION...Terry

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Springfield MO
1134 PM CDT Wed Apr 17 2019

KSZ073-097-101-MOZ055>058-066>071-077>083-088>098-101>106-190445-
Bourbon-Crawford-Cherokee-Benton-Morgan-Miller-Maries-Vernon-
St. Clair-Hickory-Camden-Pulaski-Phelps-Barton-Cedar-Polk-Dallas-
Laclede-Texas-Dent-Jasper-Dade-Greene-Webster-Wright-Newton-
Lawrence-Christian-Douglas-Howell-Shannon-McDonald-Barry-Stone-
Taney-Ozark-Oregon-
1134 PM CDT Wed Apr 17 2019

...Strong to Severe Storms Tonight...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of the Missouri
Ozarks and extreme southeast Kansas.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Weather hazards expected...

  Limited tornado risk.
  Elevated hail risk.
  Elevated thunderstorm wind damage risk.
  Limited flooding risk.
  Significant lightning risk.
  Limited non thunderstorm wind risk.

DISCUSSION...

 Strong to severe thunderstorms developing over southeast Kansas
 and northeast Oklahoma will spread eastward into southeast
 Kansas and the Missouri Ozarks through the overnight hours.

 Thunderstorm wind gusts in excess of 60 mph will be the main
 threat. Hail up to half dollar size will also be possible. A
 limited tornado risk is confined mainly to areas along and west
 of an Osage Beach to Cassville line.

 Localized flooding will also be possible mainly over west
 central Missouri if storms develop repeatedly along the
 approaching cold front.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.

  Strong to severe thunderstorms could be ongoing over portions
  of south central Missouri Thursday morning. This activity is
  expected to exit the region by late morning or mid day
  Thursday.

  An unsettled period is expected from late Sunday into the
  middle portion of next week. Several chances for thunderstorms
  will exist during the period.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

 Spotter activation may be needed in the next three hours for
 southeast Kansas and much of the Missouri Ozarks.

&&

More detailed information can be accessed at:
http://www.weather.gov/sgf/sitrep

This product in graphical format...along with other weather...
hydrological and climate information...at
http://www.weather.gov/sgf

Terry

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1253 AM CDT THU APR 18 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1244 AM     TSTM WND DMG     2 N CARL JUNCTION       37.20N 94.56W
04/18/2019                   JASPER             MO   EMERGENCY MNGR

            TREES BLOWN DOWN ON AND ALONG HIGHWAY 171.

1225 AM     HAIL             1 NE JOPLIN             37.09N 94.50W
04/18/2019  E1.75 INCH       JASPER             MO   PUBLIC

            GOLFBALL SIZE HAIL AND 6-INCH DIAMETER TREE
            LIMBS BLOWN DOWN.

&&

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
116 AM CDT THU APR 18 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1235 AM     TSTM WND DMG     1 SSE JASPER            37.33N 94.29W
04/18/2019                   JASPER             MO   EMERGENCY MNGR

            MULTIPLE POWER LINES DOWN.

&&

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
119 AM CDT THU APR 18 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1227 AM     TSTM WND DMG     NECK CITY               37.26N 94.44W
04/18/2019                   JASPER             MO   FIRE DEPT/RESCUE

            MULTIPLE POWERLINES DOWN IN THE NECK CITY
            AREA.

&&

CKR

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
123 AM CDT THU APR 18 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1157 PM     TSTM WND DMG     2 SE FAULKNER           37.08N 94.99W
04/17/2019                   CHEROKEE           KS   PUBLIC

            SEVERAL LARGE LIMBS, ONE LARGE TREE DOWN,
            AND SIDING DAMAGE TO A HOUSE.

&&

CKR

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
136 AM CDT THU APR 18 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1233 AM     TSTM WND DMG     2 SSW JASPER            37.31N 94.32W
04/18/2019                   JASPER             MO   EMERGENCY MNGR

            2 LARGE MACHINE SHEDS DAMAGED NEAR
            INTERSECTION OF COUNTY RD 150 AND REDBUD RD
            AND 2 LARGE TRANSMISSION LINES BLOWN DOWN AT
            COUNTY RD 160 AND REDBUD RD. TIME ESTIMATED
            FROM RADAR.

&&

CKR

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