Flash Flood Warning 83, NWS Springfield, MO

464 
WGUS73 KSGF 172242
FFSSGF

Flash Flood Statement
National Weather Service Springfield MO
542 PM CDT Wed Jul 17 2019

MOC065-203-180330-
/O.CON.KSGF.FF.W.0083.000000T0000Z-190718T0330Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Shannon MO-Dent MO-
542 PM CDT Wed Jul 17 2019

...THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1030 PM CDT FOR
NORTHERN SHANNON AND SOUTHERN DENT COUNTIES...

At 540 PM CDT, Doppler radar indicated that light to moderate rain 
continued across the area. Two to four inches of rain have already 
fallen. Flash flooding is likely ongoing.

Creeks, streams, and low water crossings will be especially
susceptible to the dangers of flash flooding.
Locations in the warning include...
Echo Bluff State Park...          Current River State Park...
Montauk State Park...             Ozark National Scenic Riverways...
Eminence...                       Bunker...
Jadwin...                         Midridge...
Darien...                         Round Spring...
Akers...                          Gladden...

This warning includes but is not limited to the following low water
crossings...
Route KK at Gladden Creek just north of Akers.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

In hilly terrain there are hundreds of low water crossings which are
potentially dangerous in heavy rain. Do not attempt to cross flooded
roads. Find an alternate route.

&&

LAT...LON 3716 9146 3724 9151 3733 9158 3740 9163
      3742 9164 3743 9167 3751 9172 3753 9154
      3749 9121 3742 9121 3736 9120 3726 9118
      3716 9112

$$

Schaumann

385 
WGUS73 KSGF 180323
FFSSGF

Flash Flood Statement
National Weather Service Springfield MO
1023 PM CDT Wed Jul 17 2019

MOC065-203-180331-
/O.EXP.KSGF.FF.W.0083.000000T0000Z-190718T0330Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Shannon MO-Dent MO-
1023 PM CDT Wed Jul 17 2019

...THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR NORTHERN SHANNON AND SOUTHERN DENT
COUNTIES WILL EXPIRE AT 1030 PM CDT...

The heavy rain has ended. Flash flooding is no longer expected to
pose a threat to life or property. Please continue to heed any
remaining road closures. 

LAT...LON 3716 9146 3724 9151 3733 9158 3740 9163
      3742 9164 3743 9167 3751 9172 3753 9154
      3749 9121 3742 9121 3736 9120 3726 9118
      3716 9112

$$

Hatch

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
242 PM CDT Wed Jul 17 2019

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Thursday)
Issued at 200 PM CDT Wed Jul 17 2019

A mid level shortwave trough over south central IA will move ese-
se into western IL/east central MO by 00z/7pm. Most high res
guidance has convection developing in varying degrees over our
eastern cwfa. HRRR might have the best depiction of the evolution
of the convection (maybe). In general best setup for lift from
the wave will be late this afternoon and early this evening, 3pm-
7pm. Have seen some updrafts to our east struggle early this
afternoon, but it looks like stronger convection may have a better
chance during this time. Uncapped high cape/unstable atmosphere.
Despite high pwats/moisture, some dry air aloft will be able to
support stronger downdrafts/localized downburst with stronger
convection if it develops.

Don't plan on any changes to the excessive heat headlines with the
possible exception of south central MO. Heat index values 100-110
are common at reliable observation sites.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday Night through Wednesday)
Issued at 200 PM CDT Wed Jul 17 2019

No big changes planned. Might make some adjustments/upgrades to
some south central MO counties for excessive heat headlines where
dewpoints are progged to be somewhat higher. In any case, will
continue heat headlines through Saturday.

A pattern change is still expected next week with a strong upper
ridge progged to build over the western CONUS. This will put our
area in northwest flow aloft and it should support an eventual
cold frontal passage with a drier and cooler air mass moving in late
in the period. We may have to continue the heat headlines for
some areas into Sunday, but in general cloud cover and eventually
some showers/storms with the front should cool things down.

Blended model guidance appears to be under doing rain chances
late Sunday into Monday. Will watch fcst trends, but believe
there will be fairly good, albeit short lived chances for precip
during that time. Global models are more bullish with rain chances
versus the fcst model blend in our database.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Thursday afternoon)
Issued at 1218 PM CDT Wed Jul 17 2019

KSGF/KJLN/KBBG tafs: VFR. Sfc high pressure shifting off to the
east will keep very warm/humid conditions in place with moderate south
to southwest wind gusts at times. Scattered showers/tstms will be
possible east of KBBG and KSGF through 18/00z.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT Saturday for MOZ082-083-090>092-
     094>098-101>106.

     Excessive Heat Warning until 8 PM CDT Saturday for MOZ055>058-
     066>071-077>081-088-089-093.

KS...Excessive Heat Warning until 8 PM CDT Saturday for KSZ073-097-
     101.

&&

SHORT TERM...DSA
LONG TERM...DSA
AVIATION...DSA

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Springfield MO
911 AM CDT Wed Jul 17 2019

KSZ073-097-101-MOZ055>058-066>071-077>083-088>098-101>106-181415-
Bourbon-Crawford-Cherokee-Benton-Morgan-Miller-Maries-Vernon-
St. Clair-Hickory-Camden-Pulaski-Phelps-Barton-Cedar-Polk-Dallas-
Laclede-Texas-Dent-Jasper-Dade-Greene-Webster-Wright-Newton-
Lawrence-Christian-Douglas-Howell-Shannon-McDonald-Barry-Stone-
Taney-Ozark-Oregon-
911 AM CDT Wed Jul 17 2019

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of the Missouri
Ozarks and extreme southeast Kansas.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight.

Weather hazards expected...

  Limited hail risk.
  Limited thunderstorm wind damage risk.
  Limited lightning risk.
  Significant excessive heat risk.

DISCUSSION...

Scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected this afternoon,
mainly along and east of US Highway 65. While cloud to ground
lightning and locally heavy rainfall are the main threats, a few
stronger storms may produce hail to the size of quarters and
damaging winds in excess of 60 mph. Thunderstorms will dissipate
after sunset.

Heat index values from 100 to 108 degrees are likely from
afternoon into early evening.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.

Afternoon and early evening heat index values from 100 to 108
degrees are likely from Thursday into the weekend.

There is a chance for thunderstorms Sunday afternoon through
Monday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

  Spotter activation will not be needed through tonight.

&&

More detailed information can be accessed at:
http://www.weather.gov/sgf/sitrep

This product in graphical format...along with other weather...
hydrological and climate information...at
http://www.weather.gov/sgf

DSA