Flash Flood Warning 61, NWS Springfield, MO

937 
WGUS73 KSGF 121325
FFSSGF

Flash Flood Statement
National Weather Service Springfield MO
825 AM CDT Wed Jun 12 2019

MOC131-130115-
/O.CON.KSGF.FF.W.0061.000000T0000Z-190613T0115Z/
/00000.0.DR.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
MILLER MO-
825 AM CDT Wed Jun 12 2019

...A FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR A DAM FLOODGATE RELEASE REMAINS IN
EFFECT UNTIL 815 PM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR MILLER COUNTY...

At 823 AM CDT dam operators reported the floodgates on Bagnell Dam 
will be opened to 60,000 cubic feet per second at 830 AM. This will 
cause flash flooding downstream of the dam on the Osage River. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Turn around, don't drown when encountering flooded roads. Most flood
deaths occur in vehicles.

A Flash Flood Warning means that flooding is imminent or occurring.
If you are in the warned area move to higher ground immediately.
Residents living along streams and creeks should take immediate
precautions to protect life and property.

&&

LAT...LON 3832 9224 3821 9229 3822 9238 3817 9245
      3815 9252 3819 9263 3822 9262 3826 9259
      3824 9251 3831 9239 3829 9234 3834 9232

$$

Terry

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
556 AM CDT Wed Jun 12 2019

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 230 AM CDT Wed Jun 12 2019

100 KT Upper level jet was diving south across the northern and
central high plains early this morning and carving out an upper
level trough over the upper and middle Mississippi valley region.
As a result of the approaching trough some showers were occuring
across southeast Kansas and far western MO. A few thunderstorms
were occurring further west, closer to the front and in an area
with some elevated instability. This instability diminishes to
nothing fairly quickly to the east over our forecast area which is
why there is no thunder going on yet.

The main short term focus will be with this upper trough and
associated surface cold front as it pushes through the area today
and the resultant showers and thunderstorms, including severe
weather chances.

Focus for the long term will be hydro related as a series of upper
disturbances move through and interact with quite a bit of Gulf
moisture over the area this weekend into early next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 230 AM CDT Wed Jun 12 2019

For the remainder of the overnight, showers will continue to
spread into the area from the west ahead of the upper trough.
Instability is expected to increase as the trough moves closer
ahead of the surface front, although Gulf moisture never really
makes it in here. There should be enough instability by mid
morning for some thunderstorms and the potential for some stronger
storms with hail to the size of quarters and 60 mph wind gusts
will be possible. Even behind the surface front, there should be
enough mid/upper level lifting for some scattered storms during
the afternoon into the mid evening hours, but should diminish by
mid to late evening with waning instability and the trough
shifting east of the area. We are not expecting any convection to
linger past 10-11 pm. Cooler temperatures will move in behind the
front with lows tonight in the upper 40s to low 50s.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday)
Issued at 230 AM CDT Wed Jun 12 2019

The cooler air will continue on Thursday with surface high
pressure moving across the region. Highs will be in the low to mid
70s. By Thursday night, will start to see some pretty strong warm
air advection in the western CWA. The eastern CWA will remain more
influenced by the departing high pressure system and lows will
range from the upper 40s east to the upper 50s west. There are
some low end precipitation chances late Thursday night in the west
as the low level jet cranks up in the plains, however most of the
precipitation is expected to remain west of the forecast area.

The upper ridge which has brought some record heat to parts of the
western U.S. will begin to break down late this week as quite a
bit of energy moves inland. The flow aloft will become more zonal
over the CONUS with embedded shortwave energy affecting the area
from this weekend from Friday through at least the middle of next
week. A strong influx of Gulf moisture is expected beginning
Friday with dewpoints by Saturday in the upper 60s to low 70s and
PW values from Saturday into the middle of next week from 1.5 to
1.9 in. There will be PLENTY of instability with temperatures
warming back into the 80s as well. This is starting to look more
and more like a hydro problem setting up for this weekend into
next week with already saturated ground and high water tables
across the area. QPF's are from around 2.5 to 4.5 inches from
Friday through Tuesday of next week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Thursday morning)
Issued at 549 AM CDT Wed Jun 12 2019

Main band of showers/thunderstorms were starting to swing east
into far western MO as of 1050z and should affect the terminals
between the 12z onset and around 15z. Additional more
scattered/widely scattered showers and storms will be possible
behind a cold front (which will move through this morning) during
the late morning and afternoon hours. Gusty northwest winds are
expected behind the front for the late morning and afternoon, but
should diminish after sunset.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

SYNOPSIS...Lindenberg
SHORT TERM...Lindenberg
LONG TERM...Lindenberg
AVIATION...Lindenberg

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Springfield MO
423 AM CDT Wed Jun 12 2019

KSZ073-097-101-MOZ055>058-066>071-077>083-088>098-101>106-130930-
Bourbon-Crawford-Cherokee-Benton-Morgan-Miller-Maries-Vernon-
St. Clair-Hickory-Camden-Pulaski-Phelps-Barton-Cedar-Polk-Dallas-
Laclede-Texas-Dent-Jasper-Dade-Greene-Webster-Wright-Newton-
Lawrence-Christian-Douglas-Howell-Shannon-McDonald-Barry-Stone-
Taney-Ozark-Oregon-
423 AM CDT Wed Jun 12 2019

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of the Missouri
Ozarks and extreme southeast Kansas.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight.

Weather hazards expected...

  Limited hail risk.
  Limited thunderstorm wind damage risk.
  Elevated lightning risk.

DISCUSSION...

  Thunderstorms will be possible this morning into the mid
  evening. Some of the stronger storms will be capable of
  producing hail to the size of quarters and wind gusts up to 60
  mph.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.

  More thunderstorms will be possible from late Friday through
  Tuesday, with heavy rain possible.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

  Spotter activation will not be needed through tonight.

&&

More detailed information can be accessed at:
http://www.weather.gov/sgf/sitrep

This product in graphical format...along with other weather...
hydrological and climate information...at
http://www.weather.gov/sgf

Lindenberg