Flash Flood Warning 117, NWS Springfield, MO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
1237 AM CDT Sun Sep 29 2019

.SHORT TERM...(This afternoon through Tonight)
Issued at 252 PM CDT Sat Sep 28 2019

Scattered showers and storms continue to occur across portions of
central and south central Missouri this afternoon and could
continue into the early evening hours, especially across south
central Missouri. Cloud to ground lightning and briefing heavy
rainfall will be the main risk with this activity.

A shortwave trough is tracking east across Kansas this afternoon.
Instability and deep layer shear are increasing ahead of the
trough, with the cap weakening. Storms are starting to develop
across eastern Kansas this afternoon and will track north east
into the area late this afternoon into this evening, mainly this
evening. This activity will mainly remain north of the I-44
corridor. The deep layer shear and instability will support the
risk for a few strong to severe storms, with hail up to the size
of ping pong balls and localized damaging wind gusts with a few
of the strongest storms. These storms will be more scattered in
nature and the better chances across the area will be this
evening north of I-44. Locally heavy rainfall will be possible
with the storms, but with the scattered nature, the flash flood
risk is low.

As the trough moves across the area late this evening into tonight
additional showers and storms will be possible overnight, again
mainly along and north of I-44. A few strong storms will be
possible, but the overall severe risk will be lower overnight than
this afternoon and evening.

Highs today will be a little trickier with clouds and scattered
storms over the area. A warm air mass is still in place across the
area. Where some breaks in the clouds occur highs in the mid to
upper 80s will be possible with low 80s expected where more
clouds occur. Lows tonight will be in the upper 60s to the lower
70s.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Saturday)
Issued at 252 PM CDT Sat Sep 28 2019

Upper level ridge will build over the region Sunday and remain in
place through early next week. This will continue the well above
normal temperatures across the area. Highs in the upper 80s to
the lower 90s will occur each day.

An upper level trough will move across the region during the
middle to the end of next week. This will flatten the ridge and
allow a front to move through the region. Showers and storms will
occur with passage of the front and trough. A cooler air mass will
also move into the area behind the front. Highs in the upper 60s
and 70s with lows in the upper 40 and 50s are expected late next
week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Sunday night)
Issued at 1233 AM CDT Sun Sep 29 2019

With VFR conditions expected through the TAF period, the main
thing to note with this forecast is the gusty southerly winds
expected Sunday.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...Wise
LONG TERM...Wise
AVIATION...Titus

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Springfield MO
707 PM CDT Sat Sep 28 2019

KSZ073-097-101-MOZ055>058-066>071-077>083-088>098-101>106-300015-
Bourbon-Crawford-Cherokee-Benton-Morgan-Miller-Maries-Vernon-
St. Clair-Hickory-Camden-Pulaski-Phelps-Barton-Cedar-Polk-Dallas-
Laclede-Texas-Dent-Jasper-Dade-Greene-Webster-Wright-Newton-
Lawrence-Christian-Douglas-Howell-Shannon-McDonald-Barry-Stone-
Taney-Ozark-Oregon-
707 PM CDT Sat Sep 28 2019

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of the Missouri
Ozarks and extreme southeast Kansas.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Weather hazards expected...

  Limited hail risk.
  Limited thunderstorm wind damage risk.
  Limited flooding risk.
  Elevated lightning risk.

DISCUSSION...

Strong to severe thunderstorms will be possible tonight across
areas along and north of a line from Lamar to Rolla. Large hail up
to the size of quarters, and wind gusts in excess of 60 mph will
be possible with the most intense storms.

Localized flash flooding can not be ruled out over locations that
experience slow moving or training thunderstorms.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday.

Additional storms will then be possible during the middle of next
week. Warm conditions will continue through Wednesday afternoon
with afternoon heat indices in the lower to middle 90s.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed in the next six hours for areas
along and north of a line from Lamar to Rolla Missouri.

&&

More detailed information can be accessed at:
http://www.weather.gov/sgf/sitrep

This product in graphical format...along with other weather...
hydrological and climate information...at
http://www.weather.gov/sgf

Cramer

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Springfield MO
806 PM CDT Sat Sep 28 2019

MOZ055-056-067-290145-
Benton MO-Morgan MO-St. Clair MO-
806 PM CDT Sat Sep 28 2019

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHERN BENTON...NORTHEASTERN
ST. CLAIR AND NORTHWESTERN MORGAN COUNTIES UNTIL 845 PM CDT...

At 806 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Lowry City, or 12 miles south of Clinton, moving northeast at 20 mph.

Wind gusts of 50 to 55 mph will be possible with this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Truman State Park...              Truman Lake...
Lincoln...                        Cole Camp...
Lowry City...                     Syracuse...
Palo Pinto...                     Racket...
Mora...                           Florence...
Brandon...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

&&

LAT...LON 3868 9284 3865 9284 3820 9350 3811 9373
      3821 9385 3821 9353 3851 9351 3851 9330
      3854 9329 3853 9307 3869 9306
TIME...MOT...LOC 0106Z 229DEG 17KT 3820 9372

Albano

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
940 PM CDT SAT SEP 28 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0907 PM     HAIL             2 N IANTHA              37.55N 94.40W
09/28/2019  E1.00 INCH       BARTON             MO   EMERGENCY MNGR

            TIME ESTIMATED FROM RADAR.

&&

JIT

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
942 PM CDT SAT SEP 28 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0925 PM     HAIL             3 S IRWIN               37.55N 94.28W
09/28/2019  E1.00 INCH       BARTON             MO   EMERGENCY MNGR

            TIME ESTIMATED FROM RADAR.

&&

JIT

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1049 PM CDT SAT SEP 28 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0842 PM     TSTM WND DMG     MULBERRY                37.56N 94.62W
09/28/2019                   CRAWFORD           KS   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS DAMAGED 9 OUTBUILDINGS ON
            THE SOUTH SIDE OF MULBERRY.

&&

DCRAMER