Flash Flood Warning 10, NWS Springfield, MO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
624 PM CDT Tue Apr 30 2019

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 305 PM CDT Tue Apr 30 2019

Rather active pattern setting up across the area at mid afternoon.
Several supercells have initiated over NE OK and have moved into
the area. The RUC is indicating that instability as well as the h8
winds will continue to increase from late this afternoon into this
evening. With 0-6km bulk shear values around 50 kts at this
time...all modes of severe weather will be possible.

Surface front is currently situated from about Ft. Scott KS to
Rolla. The warm front will lift northward overnight as a surface
wave moves up the front...however...the cold front will remain
anchored over southeast Kansas as the wave moves up the front.
This will create a heavy rain scenario over southeast Kansas and
western Missouri as cells will continue to train along the front.

As the night progresses...models are hinting at the supercells
eventually evolving into a more linear mode of convection during
the overnight hours. This will increase the damaging wind and
QLCS tornado threat as well. As the line moves through...it should
stabilize the atmosphere into the morning but with the heating of
the day...could see another round of severe weather developing
tomorrow afternoon.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday Night through Tuesday)
Issued at 305 PM CDT Tue Apr 30 2019

As the main upper level wave begins to eject into the Plains on
Thursday...the surface front will begin to make some eastward
progress. The front should push through the region Thursday night
into Friday. However...it may be Saturday morning before the rain
finally pushes completely out of the area.

We then have about a 24-hr break before the pattern repeats itself
once again. A surface front moves southward into the region on
Sunday...stalls...and meanders across the region through the
remainder of the forecast period. An upper low digs into the
longwave trough over southern California and puts us back into
southwest flow.

Temperatures for the most part will hold fairly steady with highs
in the 70s and lows in the 50s. Day-to-day variations will be
dependent upon cloud cover and rainfall.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Wednesday evening)
Issued at 612 PM CDT Tue Apr 30 2019

Convection continuing across the forecast area at this time. Most
areas outside of the convection are either VFR or MVFR with MVFR
to IFR conditions within the convection. The exception to this is
over west central Missouri and extreme southeast Kansas where most
areas are MVFR to IFR.

The low level jet will increase over night keeping winds up and
occasionally especially on the Ozark Plateau. Could also see some
LLWS between 03-09z across the area. Periods of convective
activity are expected through the forecast area.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...Flash Flood Watch through Thursday morning for MOZ055>058-
     066>071-077>083-088>098-101>106.

KS...Flash Flood Watch through Thursday morning for KSZ073-097-101.

&&

SHORT TERM...Gaede
LONG TERM...Gaede
AVIATION...Gaede

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Springfield MO
409 PM CDT Tue Apr 30 2019

KSZ073-097-101-MOZ055>058-066>071-077>083-088>098-101>106-012115-
Bourbon-Crawford-Cherokee-Benton-Morgan-Miller-Maries-Vernon-
St. Clair-Hickory-Camden-Pulaski-Phelps-Barton-Cedar-Polk-Dallas-
Laclede-Texas-Dent-Jasper-Dade-Greene-Webster-Wright-Newton-
Lawrence-Christian-Douglas-Howell-Shannon-McDonald-Barry-Stone-
Taney-Ozark-Oregon-
409 PM CDT Tue Apr 30 2019

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of the Missouri
Ozarks and extreme southeast Kansas.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Weather hazards expected...

  Elevated tornado risk.
  Elevated hail risk.
  Elevated thunderstorm wind damage risk.
  Elevated flooding risk.
  Significant lightning risk.
  Limited non thunderstorm wind risk.

DISCUSSION...

Numerous showers and thunderstorms will continue to move
northeast into the outlook area late this afternoon into tonight.
Supercell thunderstorms are expected with tornadoes, large hail,
and damaging winds all possible.

The thunderstorms are then expected to develop into a squall line
this evening and push eastward across the area tonight. This will
include a threat for damaging winds to 70 mph and tornadoes.
Portions of the squall line which bow out towards the northeast
will have an enhanced tornado threat.

An elevated threat for flash flooding exists for today and
tonight as multiple rounds of heavy rainfall are expected.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday.

The potential for severe thunderstorms and flooding will then
continue from Wednesday afternoon into Wednesday night. This
includes the potential for large hail, damaging winds, and
isolated tornadoes.

The risk for thunderstorms will then persist into Thursday and
Friday. The potential for severe storms and flooding is unclear
at this time. There are then limited chances for thunderstorms
early next week.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

 Spotter activation may be needed later today or tonight over the
entire area.

&&

More detailed information can be accessed at:
http://www.weather.gov/sgf/sitrep

This product in graphical format...along with other weather...
hydrological and climate information...at
http://www.weather.gov/sgf

Gaede

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
656 PM CDT TUE APR 30 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0650 PM     TORNADO          3 SE EXETER             36.65N 93.91W
04/30/2019                   BARRY              MO   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            BRIEF TOUCHDOWN.

&&

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
714 PM CDT TUE APR 30 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0659 PM     TSTM WND DMG     SQUIRES                 36.85N 92.62W
04/30/2019                   DOUGLAS            MO   FIRE DEPT/RESCUE

            TREES DOWN ALONG HIGHWAY JJ SOUTHWEST OF
            SQUIRES. DAMAGE WAS COINCIDENT WITH AN
            POSSIBLE TORNADO SIGNATURE FROM DOPPLER
            RADAR.

&&

SR

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
715 PM CDT TUE APR 30 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0615 PM     TSTM WND DMG     FRONTENAC               37.46N 94.69W
04/30/2019                   CRAWFORD           KS   FIRE DEPT/RESCUE

            SEVERAL POWER POLES DOWN RANDOMLY THROUGHOUT
            FRONTENAC AND EASTERN CRAWFORD COUNTY.

&&

DSA

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
721 PM CDT TUE APR 30 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0659 PM     TSTM WND DMG     SQUIRES                 36.85N 92.62W
04/30/2019                   DOUGLAS            MO   FIRE DEPT/RESCUE

            TREES DOWN ALONG HIGHWAY JJ SOUTHWEST OF
            SQUIRES. SUBSEQUENT REPORTS OF A BARN
            DESTROYED AND POWER LINES DOWN AS WELL.
            DAMAGE WAS COINCIDENT WITH AN POSSIBLE
            TORNADO SIGNATURE FROM DOPPLER RADAR.

&&

SR

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
736 PM CDT TUE APR 30 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0700 PM     FLASH FLOOD      CARTHAGE                37.18N 94.32W
04/30/2019                   JASPER             MO   PUBLIC

            MEDIA PARTNER REPORTS MULTIPLE VEHICLES
            STALLED DUE TO FLOODED ROADWAYS, ESPECIALLY
            ON CENTRAL AVE (HWY 96).

&&

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
759 PM CDT TUE APR 30 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0758 PM     FLASH FLOOD      1 W STOCKTON            37.70N 93.82W
04/30/2019                   CEDAR              MO   EMERGENCY MNGR

            PORTIONS OF HWY 32 EASTBOUND INTO STOCKTON
            ARE IMPASSABLE DUE TO FLASH FLOODING. THERE
            ARE ALSO SEVERAL COUNTY ROADS AND A FEW CITY
            STREETS FLOODED.

&&