Alert archive / Washington / River Flood Warnings in 2019

River Flood Warning 2, NWS Seattle, WA

January 3, 2019Mason County, Washington

NWS Seattle, WA issued this river flood warning at Jan 3, 2019, 9:11 AM PST for Mason County, Washington. It took effect at Jan 3, 2019, 4:29 PM PST. It was in force for 65 hr.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued: Jan 3, 2019, 9:11 AM PST (17:11 UTC)
In effect from: Jan 3, 2019, 4:29 PM PST
Expired: Jan 6, 2019, 9:42 AM PST
In force: 65 hr
Issued by: NWS Seattle, WA
Area: Storm-based polygon
Flood severity: Moderate

County Mason County, WA

The radar

The Langley Hill radar (KLGX), 72 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 17:12 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The river

Written for the forecast point Skokomish River near Potlatch (SRPW1). The gauge peaked at 17.62 ft at Jan 4, 2019, 3:00 AM PST.

Action stage: 15 ft
Minor stage: 16.5 ft
Moderate stage: 17.5 ft
Major stage: 18 ft

This gauge today: stage, forecast and historic crests

Stage from the USGS instantaneous record for site 12061500, one reading an hour, from a day before the product to a day after it ended. Flood stages are today's.

The text

As transmitted.

237 
WGUS46 KSEW 031711
FLWSEW
BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Flood Warning
National Weather Service Seattle WA
911 AM PST Thu Jan 3 2019

...The National Weather Service in Seattle has issued a flood warning
for the following rivers in Washington...

  Bogachiel River near La Push affecting Clallam County.
  Skokomish River near Potlatch affecting Mason County.

.Flood Bulletin No. 1

Moderate to heavy rainfall over the Olypics last night and into this
morning is expected to continue. These rains will allow for river levels
on both the Skokomish and the Bogachiel rivers to rise above flood stage
this afternoon. The Bogachiel is expected to see levels recede tonight
while the Skokomish is expected to remain in flood stage into Friday.


PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Do not drive cars...vans...or trucks through flooded areas...this is 
the cause of most flood related deaths in Washington. Be alert for 
rapid changes and monitor developments by listening to NOAA Weather 
radio or other local media.


&&

WAC009-040211-
/O.NEW.KSEW.FL.W.0001.190103T2323Z-190104T1035Z/
/BOGW1.1.ER.190103T2323Z.190104T0000Z.190104T0135Z.NO/
911 AM PST Thu Jan 3 2019

The National Weather Service in Seattle has issued a 

* Flood Warning for 
  The Bogachiel River near La Push
* from this afternoon to late tonight.
* At  8:30 AM Thursday the stage was 32.3 feet.
* Flood stage is 37.0 feet.
* Minor flooding is forecast.
* Forecast...The river will rise above flood stage around 3 PM 
  Thursday and crest near 37.5 feet around 4 PM Thursday. The river 
  will fall below flood stage this evening.
* Impact...At 37.0 feet, the Bogachiel River will cause flooding of 
  State Highway 110 near the Bogachiel bridge...closing the road.

&&

LAT...LON 4789 12440 4789 12453 4789 12463 4795 12467 4796 12455
      4798 12443       

$$

WAC045-040211-
/O.NEW.KSEW.FL.W.0002.190104T0029Z-190105T1344Z/
/SRPW1.2.ER.190104T0029Z.190104T1200Z.190105T0444Z.NR/
911 AM PST Thu Jan 3 2019

The National Weather Service in Seattle has issued a 

* Flood Warning for 
  The Skokomish River near Potlatch
* from this afternoon to late Friday night.
* At  8:30 AM Thursday the stage was 15.5 feet.
* Flood stage is 16.5 feet.
* Moderate flooding is forecast.
* Forecast...The river will rise above flood stage around 4 PM 
  Thursday and crest near 17.6 feet around 4 AM Friday. The river 
  will fall below flood stage Friday night.
* Impact...At 17.5 feet, the Skokomish River will cause moderate 
  flooding, with deep and quick flood waters inundating some 
  residential areas, many roads, and much of the farm land in the 
  Skokomish Valley. Inundated roads include the Skokomish Valley 
  road, Bourgault Road West, Purdy Cutoff Road, and Highway 106.

&&

LAT...LON 4744 12326 4733 12321 4736 12317 4733 12308 4721 12321
      4738 12340       

$$

10 follow-up statements

454
WGUS86 KSEW 040213
FLSSEW
Flood Statement
National Weather Service Seattle WA
613 PM PST Thu Jan 3 2019

...The Flood Warning has ended for the following rivers in
Washington...

Bogachiel River near La Push affecting Clallam County.

...The Flood Warning continues for the following rivers in
Washington...
Skokomish River near Potlatch affecting Mason County.

.Flood Bulletin No. 7

Olympic Peninsula Region

The Skokomish River near Potlatch will remain above flood stage. The Bogachiel River will likely remain below flood stage but will be monitored.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Do not drive cars...vans...or trucks through flooded areas...this is
the cause of most flood related deaths in Washington. Be alert for
rapid changes and monitor developments by listening to NOAA Weather
radio or other local media.

WAC009-040243-
/O.CAN.KSEW.FL.W.0001.000000T0000Z-190104T1035Z/
/BOGW1.N.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.NO/
613 PM PST Thu Jan 3 2019

The Flood Warning is cancelled for
The Bogachiel River near La Push
* At 5:30 PM Thursday the stage was 34.8 feet.
* Flood stage is 37 feet.

LAT...LON 4789 12440 4789 12453 4789 12463 4795 12467 4796 12455
4798 12443

WAC045-041112-
/O.CON.KSEW.FL.W.0002.000000T0000Z-190105T1344Z/
/SRPW1.2.ER.190103T2237Z.190104T1200Z.190105T0444Z.NR/
613 PM PST Thu Jan 3 2019

The Flood Warning continues for
The Skokomish River near Potlatch
* Until late Friday night.
* At 5:45 PM Thursday the stage was 17 feet.
* Flood stage is 16.5 feet.
* Minor flooding is occurring and Moderate flooding is forecast.
* Forecast...The river will continue to rise and crest near 17.6 feet
around 4 AM Friday. The river will fall below flood stage Friday
night.
* Impact...At 17.5 feet, the Skokomish River will cause moderate
flooding, with deep and quick flood waters inundating some
residential areas, many roads, and much of the farm land in the
Skokomish Valley. Inundated roads include the Skokomish Valley
road, Bourgault Road West, Purdy Cutoff Road, and Highway 106.

LAT...LON 4744 12326 4733 12321 4736 12317 4733 12308 4721 12321
4738 12340

386 
WGUS86 KSEW 041121
FLSSEW
Flood Statement
National Weather Service Seattle WA
321 AM PST Fri Jan 4 2019

...The Flood Warning continues for the following rivers in 
Washington...
  Skokomish River near Potlatch affecting Mason County.

.Flood Bulletin No. 9

                Olympic Peninsula Region

Heavy rain over the Olympics on Thursday drove the Skokomish 
River near Potlatch above flood stage. The river has crested 
and will recede below flood stage tonight.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Do not drive cars...vans...or trucks through flooded areas...this is 
the cause of most flood related deaths in Washington. Be alert for 
rapid changes and monitor developments by listening to NOAA Weather 
radio or other local media.

&&

WAC045-042022-
/O.CON.KSEW.FL.W.0002.000000T0000Z-190105T1344Z/
/SRPW1.2.ER.190103T2237Z.190104T1100Z.190105T0444Z.NR/
321 AM PST Fri Jan 4 2019

The Flood Warning continues for
  The Skokomish River near Potlatch
* Until late tonight.
* At  3:00 AM Friday the stage was 17.6 feet.
* Flood stage is 16.5 feet.
* Moderate flooding is occurring and Moderate flooding is forecast.
* Forecast...The river crested at 17.6 feet at 3 AM Friday and will 
  continue to fall to below flood stage tonight.
* Impact...At 17.5 feet, the Skokomish River will cause moderate 
  flooding, with deep and quick flood waters inundating some 
  residential areas, many roads, and much of the farm land in the 
  Skokomish Valley. Inundated roads include the Skokomish Valley 
  road, Bourgault Road West, Purdy Cutoff Road, and Highway 106.

&&

LAT...LON 4744 12326 4733 12321 4736 12317 4733 12308 4721 12321
      4738 12340       

$$

883 
WGUS86 KSEW 041704
FLSSEW
Flood Statement
National Weather Service Seattle WA
904 AM PST Fri Jan 4 2019

...The Flood Warning continues for the following rivers in 
Washington...

  Skokomish River near Potlatch affecting Mason County.

.Flood Bulletin No. 11

                Olympic Peninsula Region

Heavy rain over the Olympics on Thursday drove the Skokomish 
River near Potlatch above flood stage. The river has crested 
and will continue to recede.


PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Do not drive cars...vans...or trucks through flooded areas...this is 
the cause of most flood related deaths in Washington. Be alert for 
rapid changes and monitor developments by listening to NOAA Weather 
radio or other local media.


&&

WAC045-050204-
/O.EXT.KSEW.FL.W.0002.000000T0000Z-190107T0356Z/
/SRPW1.2.ER.190103T2237Z.190104T1100Z.190106T1856Z.NR/
904 AM PST Fri Jan 4 2019

...Flood Warning extended until Sunday evening...

The Flood Warning continues for
  The Skokomish River near Potlatch
* Until Sunday evening.
* At  8:45 AM Friday the stage was 17.6 feet.
* Flood stage is 16.5 feet.
* Moderate flooding is occurring and Moderate flooding is forecast.
* Forecast...The river crested at 17.6 feet at 3 AM Friday and will 
  continue to fall to below flood stage late Sunday morning.
* Impact...At 17.5 feet, the Skokomish River will cause moderate 
  flooding, with deep and quick flood waters inundating some 
  residential areas, many roads, and much of the farm land in the 
  Skokomish Valley. Inundated roads include the Skokomish Valley 
  road, Bourgault Road West, Purdy Cutoff Road, and Highway 106.

&&

LAT...LON 4744 12326 4733 12321 4736 12317 4733 12308 4721 12321
      4738 12340       

$$

670 
WGUS86 KSEW 042234
FLSSEW
Flood Statement
National Weather Service Seattle WA
234 PM PST Fri Jan 4 2019

...The Flood Warning continues for the following rivers in 
Washington...

  Skokomish River near Potlatch affecting Mason County.

.Flood Bulletin No. 12

                Olympic Peninsula Region

Heavy rain over the Olympics on Thursday drove the Skokomish 
River near Potlatch above flood stage. The river has crested 
and will continue to recede.


PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Do not drive cars...vans...or trucks through flooded areas...this is 
the cause of most flood related deaths in Washington. Be alert for 
rapid changes and monitor developments by listening to NOAA Weather 
radio or other local media.


&&

WAC045-050734-
/O.EXT.KSEW.FL.W.0002.000000T0000Z-190107T2155Z/
/SRPW1.2.ER.190103T2237Z.190104T1100Z.190107T1255Z.NR/
234 PM PST Fri Jan 4 2019

...Flood Warning extended until Monday afternoon...

The Flood Warning continues for
  The Skokomish River near Potlatch
* Until Monday afternoon.
* At  2:15 PM Friday the stage was 17.5 feet.
* Flood stage is 16.5 feet.
* Moderate flooding is occurring and Minor flooding is forecast.
* Forecast...The river crested at 17.6 feet at 3 AM Friday and will 
  continue to fall to below flood stage early Monday morning.
* Impact...At 17.5 feet, the Skokomish River will cause moderate 
  flooding, with deep and quick flood waters inundating some 
  residential areas, many roads, and much of the farm land in the 
  Skokomish Valley. Inundated roads include the Skokomish Valley 
  road, Bourgault Road West, Purdy Cutoff Road, and Highway 106.

&&

LAT...LON 4744 12326 4733 12321 4736 12317 4733 12308 4721 12321
      4738 12340       

$$

881 
WGUS86 KSEW 050734
FLSSEW
Flood Statement
National Weather Service Seattle WA
1134 PM PST Fri Jan 4 2019

...The Flood Warning continues for the following rivers in 
Washington...
  Skokomish River near Potlatch affecting Mason County.

.Flood Bulletin No. 13

                Olympic Peninsula Region

Heavy rain over the Olympics on Thursday drove the Skokomish 
River near Potlatch above flood stage. The river has crested 
and will continue to recede.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Do not drive cars...vans...or trucks through flooded areas...this is 
the cause of most flood related deaths in Washington. Be alert for 
rapid changes and monitor developments by listening to NOAA Weather 
radio or other local media.


&&

WAC045-051634-
/O.CON.KSEW.FL.W.0002.000000T0000Z-190107T2155Z/
/SRPW1.2.ER.190103T2237Z.190104T1100Z.190107T1255Z.NR/
1134 PM PST Fri Jan 4 2019

The Flood Warning continues for
  The Skokomish River near Potlatch
* Until Monday afternoon.
* At 11:15 PM Friday the stage was 17.3 feet.
* Flood stage is 16.5 feet.
* Minor flooding is occurring and Minor flooding is forecast.
* Forecast...The river has crested and will continue to fall to below
  flood stage early Monday morning.
* Impact...At 16.5 feet, the Skokomish River will cause widespread 
  flooding of pasture lands, with water flowing quickly over West 
  Bourgault Road and Skokomish Valley Road. The evacuation route will
  be opened to the west end of the Skokomish Valley Road.

&&

LAT...LON 4744 12326 4733 12321 4736 12317 4733 12308 4721 12321
      4738 12340       

$$

238 
WGUS86 KSEW 051551
FLSSEW
Flood Statement
National Weather Service Seattle WA
751 AM PST Sat Jan 5 2019

...The Flood Warning continues for the following rivers in 
Washington...

  Skokomish River near Potlatch affecting Mason County.

.Flood Bulletin No. 14

                Olympic Peninsula Region

Heavy rain over the Olympics on Thursday drove the Skokomish 
River near Potlatch above flood stage. The river has crested 
and will continue to recede today. A slight rise is possible Sunday 
with light additionial rainfall. The river is expected to fall below 
flood stage early next week. 



PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Do not drive cars...vans...or trucks through flooded areas...this is 
the cause of most flood related deaths in Washington. Be alert for 
rapid changes and monitor developments by listening to NOAA Weather 
radio or other local media.


&&

WAC045-060050-
/O.EXT.KSEW.FL.W.0002.000000T0000Z-190108T0512Z/
/SRPW1.2.ER.190103T2237Z.190104T1100Z.190107T2012Z.NR/
751 AM PST Sat Jan 5 2019

...Flood Warning extended until Monday evening...

The Flood Warning continues for
  The Skokomish River near Potlatch
* Until Monday evening.
* At  7:30 AM Saturday the stage was 16.9 feet.
* Flood stage is 16.5 feet.
* Minor flooding is occurring and Minor flooding is forecast.
* Forecast...The river has crested and will continue to fall 
  today. A slight rise is possible Sunday with light additional 
  rainfall. The river will fall below flood stage Monday early 
  afternoon.
* Impact...At 16.5 feet, the Skokomish River will cause widespread 
  flooding of pasture lands, with water flowing quickly over West 
  Bourgault Road and Skokomish Valley Road. The evacuation route will
  be opened to the west end of the Skokomish Valley Road.

&&

LAT...LON 4744 12326 4733 12321 4736 12317 4733 12308 4721 12321
      4738 12340       

$$

848 
WGUS86 KSEW 052153
FLSSEW
Flood Statement
National Weather Service Seattle WA
153 PM PST Sat Jan 5 2019

...The Flood Warning continues for the following rivers in 
Washington...

  Skokomish River near Potlatch affecting Mason County.

.Flood Bulletin No. 15

                Olympic Peninsula Region

Heavy rain over the Olympics on Thursday drove the Skokomish 
River near Potlatch above flood stage. The river has crested 
and will continue to recede today. A slight rise is possible Sunday 
with light additionial rainfall. The river is expected to fall below 
flood stage early next week. 



PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Do not drive cars...vans...or trucks through flooded areas...this is 
the cause of most flood related deaths in Washington. Be alert for 
rapid changes and monitor developments by listening to NOAA Weather 
radio or other local media.


&&

WAC045-060652-
/O.EXT.KSEW.FL.W.0002.000000T0000Z-190107T1816Z/
/SRPW1.2.ER.190103T2237Z.190104T1100Z.190107T0916Z.NR/
153 PM PST Sat Jan 5 2019

The Flood Warning continues for
  The Skokomish River near Potlatch
* Until Monday morning.
* At  1:45 PM Saturday the stage was 16.6 feet.
* Flood stage is 16.5 feet.
* Minor flooding is occurring and Minor flooding is forecast.
* Forecast...The river has crested and will continue to fall 
  today. A slight rise is possible Sunday with light additional 
  rainfall. The river will fall below flood stage early Monday 
  morning.
* Impact...At 16.5 feet, the Skokomish River will cause widespread 
  flooding of pasture lands, with water flowing quickly over West 
  Bourgault Road and Skokomish Valley Road. The evacuation route will
  be opened to the west end of the Skokomish Valley Road.

&&

LAT...LON 4744 12326 4733 12321 4736 12317 4733 12308 4721 12321
      4738 12340       

$$

508 
WGUS86 KSEW 060625
FLSSEW
Flood Statement
National Weather Service Seattle WA
1025 PM PST Sat Jan 5 2019

...The Flood Warning continues for the following rivers in 
Washington...
  Skokomish River near Potlatch affecting Mason County.

.Flood Bulletin No. 16

                Olympic Peninsula Region

Heavy rain over the Olympics on Thursday drove the Skokomish 
River near Potlatch above flood stage. The river crested  on Friday 
and has been redceding and fell slightly below flood stage this 
evening. A frontal system moving through the area tonight will bring 
another round of rain which could push the river to minor flood stage 
again Sunday morning. The river is expected to fall below flood 
stage again early next week. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Do not drive cars...vans...or trucks through flooded areas...this is 
the cause of most flood related deaths in Washington. Be alert for 
rapid changes and monitor developments by listening to NOAA Weather 
radio or other local media.


&&

WAC045-061525-
/O.CON.KSEW.FL.W.0002.000000T0000Z-190107T1816Z/
/SRPW1.2.ER.190103T2237Z.190104T1100Z.190107T0916Z.NR/
1025 PM PST Sat Jan 5 2019

The Flood Warning continues for
  The Skokomish River near Potlatch
* From 3 PM Thursday until Monday morning.
* At 10:00 PM Saturday the stage was 16.4 feet.
* Flood stage is 16.5 feet.
* Minor flooding is forecast.
* Forecast...A slight rise to just over flood stage is possible 
  Sunday morning with light additional rainfall. The river will fall
  below flood stage early Monday morning.
* Impact...At 16.5 feet, the Skokomish River will cause widespread 
  flooding of pasture lands, with water flowing quickly over West 
  Bourgault Road and Skokomish Valley Road. The evacuation route will
  be opened to the west end of the Skokomish Valley Road.

&&

LAT...LON 4744 12326 4733 12321 4736 12317 4733 12308 4721 12321
      4738 12340       

$$

445 
WGUS86 KSEW 061442
FLSSEW
Flood Statement
National Weather Service Seattle WA
642 AM PST Sun Jan 6 2019

...The Flood Warning continues for the following rivers in 
Washington...
  Skokomish River near Potlatch affecting Mason County.

.Flood Bulletin No. 17

                Olympic Peninsula Region

The Skokomish river fell slightly below flood stage Saturday 
evening. Rain last night and this morning could push the river 
slightly above flood stage again later today. The river is expected 
to fall below flood stage again Monay morning.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Do not drive cars...vans...or trucks through flooded areas...this is 
the cause of most flood related deaths in Washington. Be alert for 
rapid changes and monitor developments by listening to NOAA Weather 
radio or other local media.

&&

WAC045-062341-
/O.CON.KSEW.FL.W.0002.000000T0000Z-190107T1816Z/
/SRPW1.2.ER.190103T2237Z.190104T1100Z.190107T0916Z.NR/
642 AM PST Sun Jan 6 2019

The Flood Warning continues for
  The Skokomish River near Potlatch
* From 3 PM Thursday until Monday morning.
* At  6:15 AM Sunday the stage was 16.4 feet.
* Flood stage is 16.5 feet.
* Minor flooding is forecast.
* Forecast...A slight rise to just over flood stage is possible 
  later today with light additional rainfall. The river will 
  fall below flood stage early Monday morning.
* Impact...At 16.5 feet, the Skokomish River will cause widespread 
  flooding of pasture lands, with water flowing quickly over West 
  Bourgault Road and Skokomish Valley Road. The evacuation route will
  be opened to the west end of the Skokomish Valley Road.

&&

LAT...LON 4744 12326 4733 12321 4736 12317 4733 12308 4721 12321
      4738 12340       

$$

199 
WGUS86 KSEW 061742
FLSSEW
Flood Statement
National Weather Service Seattle WA
942 AM PST Sun Jan 6 2019

...The Flood Warning has ended for the following rivers in 
Washington...

  Skokomish River near Potlatch affecting Mason County.

.Flood Bulletin No. 18

                Olympic Peninsula Region

The Skokomish river fell below flood stage yesterday evening. 
Overnight rain caused a slight rise again but the river has 
crested this morning and remains below flood stage.


PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Do not drive cars...vans...or trucks through flooded areas...this is 
the cause of most flood related deaths in Washington. Be alert for 
rapid changes and monitor developments by listening to NOAA Weather 
radio or other local media.


&&

WAC045-061812-
/O.CAN.KSEW.FL.W.0002.000000T0000Z-190107T1816Z/
/SRPW1.2.ER.190103T2237Z.190104T1100Z.000000T0000Z.NR/
942 AM PST Sun Jan 6 2019

The Flood Warning has ended for
  The Skokomish River near Potlatch
* At  9:30 AM Sunday the stage was 16.4 feet.
* Flood stage is 16.5 feet.
* The river fell below flood stage Saturday evening.
* Impact...At 16.0 feet, the Skokomish River will locally spill over 
  its banks into low-lying areas of the Skokomish Valley.

&&

LAT...LON 4744 12326 4733 12321 4736 12317 4733 12308 4721 12321
      4738 12340       

$$

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before this river flood warning went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Seattle, WA wrote its last area forecast discussion before this river flood warning went out at Jan 3, 8:57 AM PST, 14 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, Jan 3, 8:57 AM PST, 14 minutes before

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Seattle WA
857 AM PST Thu Jan 3 2019

.SYNOPSIS...A frontal system will bring rain, mountain snow, and
wind at times through early Friday. An upper trough will maintain
somewhat unsettled weather through the weekend. Another wet
system may arrive the first part of next week.

&&

.UPDATE / TODAY /...Current forecast in pretty good shape this
morning. Did up precipitation amounts for the Olympic Peninsula
and north Cascades for next 8-12 hours as latest hi-res guidance
has trended upward. Deep moisture fetch off the eastern Pacific
is leading to steady, heavy rainfall rates around 0.5in/hour
which should continue through most of the day until the cold front
swings through later tonight. Will continue to monitor rivers
feeding off the Olympics and north Cascades for flooding
concerns. See Hydrology discussion below for the latest. Wind
gusts of 30-40 mph continue along the Pacific coastline and north
interior and will pick up a bit during the day with gusts to 50
mph possible, peaking this afternoon and evening. Elsewhere
breezy conditions with gusts in the 20-40 mph range. With
saturated soil, this may still be enough for some localized tree
damage and power outages. Previous discussion follows. CEO

.SHORT TERM / THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY /...Little change in the
forecast today with the warm front remaining over the northern
portion of the area. Rain will spread south covering the entire
area this morning with the exception of the favored rain shadow
area at the east end of the Strait of Juan de Fuca. Winds
increasing during the day as a cold front approaching the coast
increases the surface gradients. Wind advisories will remain in
effect for the Northwest Interior, Admiralty Inlet and coastal
zones for southerly winds 20 to 35 mph with gusts 45-50 mph. Snow
levels rising this morning to at least around 5000 feet. A small
pocket of cool air trapped in Snoqualmie pass early will mix out
this morning. Highs today will be in the upper 40s to mid 50s.

Warm front lifting north with the cold front stalling over the
area tonight as an upper level trough back out near 138w digs
south. With the front stalling have extended the wind advisory
along the coast until 10 pm this evening. As the cold front starts
to sag south cooler air will move into the North Cascades this
evening with snow levels lowering to around 3500 feet. Will
convert the winter storm watch to a warning for the North Cascades
tonight into Friday. Slower transition to the lower snow levels
over the remainder of the Cascades along with decreasing
precipitation rates. Will only go for an advisory for the central
and southern Cascades. Windy conditions tonight with the winds
easing overnight as the cold front slowly moves south. Lows
tonight will be in the lower to mid 40s.

Cold front moving south of the area Friday morning with the steady
rain changing to showers. Winds easing slowly during the day with
the model surface gradients putting the KOLM-KBLI gradient below 3
mb by 00z Saturday. Snowfall rates will decrease in the Cascades
but will still be high enough to keep the winter storm warning for
the North Cascades going throughout the day. The winter weather
advisory for the Central and Southern Cascades will come to an
end by afternoon. Snow levels will remain around 3500 feet. Highs
on Friday will be near 50.

A little bit of a break in the action Friday night as the
precipitation dries up over Western Washington. Weak upper level
low approaching the Northern California coast with the flow aloft
over Western Washington becoming southwesterly. Moisture streaming
northeast out of the low approaching Western Washington by 12z
Saturday. Lows Saturday morning will be in the mid 30s to lower
40s.

Moisture associated with the weakening upper level low continuing
to stream into the area on Saturday with most of the precipitation
remaining south and west of the area. Model solutions have been
having trouble latching on to a consistent solution for Saturday
and wit with the current solutions bringing rain close to the
area will go with a chance of rain on Saturday for most of Western
Washington. The best chance for a dry day will be in the north.
Highs on Saturday will be in the mid 40s to lower 50s. Felton

.LONG TERM...Extended models in pretty good agreement with a weak
frontal system followed by an upper level trough moving through the
area Saturday night into Sunday. Models having trouble with the
timing of the next system, a warm front moving up from the south.
The ECMWF moves this feature over the area on Monday while the GFS
is 18-24 hours slower bringing the system in on Tuesday. More
inconsistency Tuesday night and Wednesday with the ECMWF bringing
a cold front through while the cold front on the GFS gets torn
apart as it moves into the area on Wednesday. With the lack of
model consistency will go with a broad brush rain likely forecast
for most of the Monday through Wednesday time frame. Felton

&&

.AVIATION...Moist westerly flow will continue today with rain
across Western WA. The air mass is stable. Ceilings are mostly in
MVFR to IFR range this morning with low-end VFR cigs possible this
afternoon (ceilings near 3000 feet). In addition, expect gusty S
wind to 20-30 kt at most terminals through early this evening.
The cold front will push SE through the region tonight with
showers tapering off after midnight. Onshore flow will keep the
low level air mass moist for MVFR conditions. 33

KSEA...Rain with MVFR to IFR cigs this morning. May see brief
improvement this afternoon as ceilings rise to around 3000 feet.
S winds at the surface gusting to 20-30 kt. Winds at 2000 feet
near 40 kt. Expect showers with the cold front this evening,
tapering off after midnight tonight. MVFR cigs likely through
Friday morning. 33

&&

.MARINE...Gales are likely over most waters today as a strong
Pacific frontal system moves in. Winds will ease tonight behind a
cold front, but will likely still remain within Small Craft
Advisory range. Onshore flow will prevail on Friday with post-
frontal westerly wind.

A swell train will reach the WA coast Friday morning and
afternoon with seas building to 20-23 feet - a High Surf Advisory
is in effect. Seas will subside under 20 feet Friday night.

The flow will turn offshore on Saturday as the next system moves
into northern California. Onshore flow will return on Sunday as
this system moves inland. A strong Pacific system may impact the
region early next week. 33

&&

.HYDROLOGY...QPF forecasts look to be a little more and a little
faster than previous runs...with rivers of concern...most notably
the Skokomish and the Bogachiel...reacting a bit faster than
previously forecast. However...models for the Bogachiel look to be
seriously overdone as the model calls for levels to rise to
slightly over major flood stage while internal models/guidance
shows significantly lower but still shows the river entering into
minor flood stage this evening. All that being said...will likely
issue flood warnings attached to these two rivers before the
afternoon forecast package and discussion.

As for rivers in the Cascades...will continue to monitor and revisit
for afternoon discussion.

The flood watch remains effect for rivers flowing off the Olympics
and North Cascades through Saturday.

The system for the first part of next week also has the potential to
cause minor flooding problems for the rivers flowing off the
Olympics. SMR/Felton

&&

.SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...Winter Weather Advisory from 10 PM this evening to noon PST
     Friday for Cascades of Pierce and Lewis Counties-Cascades
     of Snohomish and King Counties.

     Flood Watch through Saturday morning for Admiralty Inlet Area-
     Bellevue and Vicinity-Cascades of Snohomish and King
     Counties-Cascades of Whatcom and Skagit Counties-Central
     Coast-East Puget Sound Lowlands-Eastern Strait of Juan de
     Fuca-Everett and Vicinity-Hood Canal Area-Lower Chehalis
     Valley Area-North Coast-Olympics-Western Skagit County-
     Western Strait of Juan De Fuca-Western Whatcom County.

     Winter Storm Warning from 10 PM this evening to 6 PM PST Friday
     for Cascades of Whatcom and Skagit Counties.

     Wind Advisory until 7 PM PST this evening for Admiralty Inlet
     Area-San Juan County-Western Skagit County-Western Whatcom
     County.

     Wind Advisory until 10 PM PST this evening for Central Coast-
     North Coast.

     High Surf Advisory from 7 AM to 4 PM PST Friday for Central
     Coast-North Coast.

PZ...Small Craft Advisory for rough bar until 4 PM PST Friday for
     Grays Harbor Bar.

     Small Craft Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 4 PM PST Friday
     for Coastal Waters From Cape Flattery To James Island 10 To
     60 Nm-Coastal Waters From Cape Flattery To James Island Out
     10 Nm-Coastal Waters From James Island To Point Grenville
     10 To 60 Nm-Coastal Waters From James Island To Point
     Grenville Out 10 Nm-Coastal Waters From Point Grenville To
     Cape Shoalwater 10 To 60 Nm-Coastal Waters From Point
     Grenville To Cape Shoalwater Out 10 Nm-West Entrance U.S.
     Waters Strait Of Juan De Fuca.

     Gale Warning until 7 PM PST this evening for Coastal Waters From
     Cape Flattery To James Island 10 To 60 Nm-Coastal Waters
     From Cape Flattery To James Island Out 10 Nm-Coastal Waters
     From James Island To Point Grenville 10 To 60 Nm-Coastal
     Waters From James Island To Point Grenville Out 10 Nm-
     Coastal Waters From Point Grenville To Cape Shoalwater 10
     To 60 Nm-Coastal Waters From Point Grenville To Cape
     Shoalwater Out 10 Nm-West Entrance U.S. Waters Strait Of
     Juan De Fuca.

     Small Craft Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 4 PM PST Friday
     for Admiralty Inlet-East Entrance U.S. Waters Strait Of
     Juan De Fuca-Northern Inland Waters Including The San Juan
     Islands.

     Gale Warning until 10 PM PST this evening for Admiralty Inlet-
     East Entrance U.S. Waters Strait Of Juan De Fuca-Northern
     Inland Waters Including The San Juan Islands.

     Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM PST Friday for Central U.S.
     Waters Strait Of Juan De Fuca.

     Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM PST Friday for Puget Sound and
     Hood Canal.

&&

www.weather.gov/seattle

The office that day

Everything else NWS Seattle, WA issued on the same UTC day.

Issued	Product	Office	Counties	Lasted
Jan 3, 2:57 AM PST	Small Craft Advisory	SEW		60 hr
Jan 3, 4:13 AM PST	Winter Storm Warning	SEW		24 hr
Jan 3, 4:13 AM PST	Winter Weather Advisory	SEW		24 hr
Jan 3, 7:38 AM PST	High Surf Advisory	SEW		35 hr
Jan 3, 9:11 AM PST	River Flood Warning	SEW	Clallam	17 hr

Nearby

River Flood Warnings in Washington, 2019 Every river flood warning in 2019

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive; the gauge from the NWS water service and the USGS.