Wind Advisory 4, NWS Blacksburg, VA

339 
WWUS71 KRNK 210909
NPWRNK

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Blacksburg VA
409 AM EST Mon Jan 21 2019

...Winds will continue to diminish through the morning and
afternoon...

NCZ001-002-018-VAZ015-211015-
/O.CAN.KRNK.HW.W.0003.000000T0000Z-190121T1200Z/
Ashe-Alleghany NC-Watauga-Grayson-
Including the cities of West Jefferson, Sparta, Boone, 
Independence, Whitetop, Troutdale, and Volney
409 AM EST Mon Jan 21 2019

...HIGH WIND WARNING IS CANCELLED...

The National Weather Service in Blacksburg has cancelled the High
Wind Warning.

Gusty winds will continue into the afternoon, before diminishing
during the evening. The combination of cold air and gusty winds 
will result in dangerously low wind chills.

$$

VAZ016-017-022-211015-
/O.CAN.KRNK.WI.Y.0004.000000T0000Z-190121T1200Z/
Carroll-Floyd-Roanoke-
Including the cities of Galax, Floyd, Roanoke, and Salem
409 AM EST Mon Jan 21 2019

...WIND ADVISORY IS CANCELLED...

The National Weather Service in Blacksburg has cancelled the Wind
Advisory.

Gusty winds will continue into the afternoon, before diminishing
during the evening. The combination of cold air and gusty winds 
will result in dangerously low wind chills.

$$

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Blacksburg VA
613 PM EST Sun Jan 20 2019

.SYNOPSIS...
Strong northwest winds are expected tonight between a deep low
pressure system off the New England coast and high pressure over
the upper Mississippi Valley. The high moves east Monday and
Monday night and will be centered over the Mid Atlantic region
on Tuesday morning. After a brief warm up, another front and low
pressure system will cross the region Wednesday and Thursday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
As of 300 PM EST Sunday...

Winter Weather Advisories, High Wind Warning, Wind Chill Advisories
and Wind Advisory remain in effect.

Short wave seen over southern Ohio and trailing back into Iowa will
move across the Appalachians tonight. Cold air advection continue
through 12Z/7AM strongest pressure rises, around +6mb/3hr have
shifted into northern Virginia to southern Pennsylvania. Low level
jet remains 45 to 55 knots from the northwest through Monday
morning. All these factors continue to support winter and high wind
headline through Monday morning.

Timing is similar in the HiRes and NAMnest guidance with the
erosion of the low level moisture and for the winds diminishing
on Monday. Still some gusts of 15 to 25 mph expected until
sunset but overall pressure gradient is weakening. Will stay on
the below guidance for maximum temperatures on Monday.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 300 PM EST Sunday...

Monday night through Tuesday will likely be the driest portion of
the forecast through the next seven days. First, surface high
pressure will settle over the region Monday night. On Tuesday, this
surface high shifts east, but an upper level shortwave trough passes
over and east of the region by Tuesday evening. Along with the dry
weather, we will see a warm-up that takes place just about as
quickly as this weekend's cool-down took place. While Monday night
we can expected lows well below normal again, single digits west
around ten in the east, temperatures will start to moderate on
Tuesday with temperatures rebounding about thirty degrees during the
day as southwest flow on the backside of the upper ridge increases
across the area.

Our next weather maker is expected to arrive late Tuesday night into
Wednesday. Warm air advection in advance of the upper trough will
continue the trend of warmer air returning the the area with highs
expected to be about five degrees above normal.  However, as
precipitation arrives late Tuesday night into early Wednesday
morning, we will have the potential for a wintry mix over parts of
the area as sub-freezing temperatures will exist at the surface and
the boundary layer, with above freezing temperatures above that. To
keep the forecast simple, have gone with a rain versus freezing rain
scenario. Reality may be a morning with rain, freezing rain, sleet
and some snow depending upon just how the low level profile presents
itself at the onset of the precipitation.

The warm air advection continues into Wednesday night with
temperatures continuing to rise through the evening, with the
potential for some locally heavy rain just in advance of the
approaching cold front. The front is expected to cross the area
around or a little after midnight. Look for a transition in the west
from all rain showers to some of the higher locations of southeast
West Virginia seeing some light measurable snowfall by the early
morning hours of Thursday.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 1225 PM EST Sunday...

The system from Wednesday will make a quick exit out of the region
on Thursday, but not before the westward flank of it allows for some
morning rain showers across central and eastern parts of the area.
By the afternoon, increasing northwest flow across western parts of
the area yield some upslope scattered snow showers. Cold air
advection will be strong on Thursday such that temperatures will
trend colder as the day progresses. High temperatures are expected
in the morning ranging from the mid 30s in the west to around 50
across the east, with readings some 5 to 10 degrees colder by the
afternoon across the entire area. These upslope snow showers will
continue into Thursday evening before ending around midnight.

Another fast moving clipper system is expected to race through the
Ohio Valley late Thursday night and Friday. This feature is expected
to bring additional light snow showers to mainly the areas along and
west of the crest of the Blue Ridge, with the best potential for
light measurable snow in areas along and north of the Interstate-64
corridor.

Reinforcing colder air will follow the Friday system such that we
can expect a return of a mix of single digits and teens for low
temperatures across the area on Friday night.

After only another brief break from light precipitation, yet another
clipper system is poised to enter the region either Saturday night
on Sunday, and again bring scattered snow showers to mainly the
western sections.

Temperatures during this portion of the forecast will start near
near normal on Thursday but trend colder through Saturday such that
readings then will average about twenty degrees below normal. While
Sunday is expected to be warmer than Saturday, readings still are
forecast to be below normal by about ten degrees.

Confidence in this portion of the forecast is moderate.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 61 PM EST Sunday...

MVFR cigs with a period of snow showers at KBLF/KLWB and
through midnight, then gradually improving toward 12z Mon
VFR elsewhere.

Winds will continue out of the northwest with gusts from 30 to
45kts, especially at the higher ridge airports like GEV/TNB/HSP.
Higher gusts are likely along the southern Blue Ridge into
northwest North Carolina into this evening. Winds will begin to
slacken late tonight and on Monday as the pressure gradient
loosens.

Confidence is above average for all elements.

Extended Aviation Discussion...

Winds will diminish Monday night into Tuesday under clearing
skies including a return to VFR underneath strong subsidence
from high pressure passing overhead.

Surface front enters by Tue night-Wednesday with an increasing
chance of widespread precip with sub-VFR returning. Front may
slow down Wednesday night into Thursday with potential to see
MVFR/IFR linger within precip and low ceilings. Another blast
of Arctic air comes in for Friday so upslope MVFR clouds and
snow showers are possible.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...Wind Chill Advisory until noon EST Monday for VAZ010>014-
     018>020-023-024-032>035-043>047.
     High Wind Warning until 7 AM EST Monday for VAZ015>017-022.
     Winter Weather Advisory until noon EST Monday for VAZ007-009.
     Wind Advisory until 7 AM EST Monday for VAZ058-059.
NC...High Wind Warning until 7 AM EST Monday for NCZ001-002-018.
     Wind Advisory until 7 AM EST Monday for NCZ003>006-019-020.
WV...Wind Chill Advisory until noon EST Monday for WVZ044-507.
     Winter Weather Advisory until noon EST Monday for WVZ042-043-
     508.

&&

SYNOPSIS...AMS
NEAR TERM...AMS
SHORT TERM...DS
LONG TERM...DS
AVIATION...AMS/JH/WP

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Blacksburg VA
343 PM EST Sun Jan 20 2019

VAZ010>014-018>020-023-024-032>035-043>047-WVZ044-507-211200-
Bland-Giles-Wythe-Pulaski-Montgomery-Craig-Alleghany VA-Bath-
Botetourt-Rockbridge-Patrick-Franklin-Bedford-Amherst-Henry-
Pittsylvania-Campbell-Appomattox-Buckingham-Monroe-
Eastern Greenbrier-
343 PM EST Sun Jan 20 2019

...WIND CHILL ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON EST MONDAY...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central Virginia, south
central Virginia, southwest Virginia, west central Virginia and
southeast West Virginia.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Wind Chill Advisory.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Wind Chill Advisory.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

VAZ007-009-WVZ042-043-508-211200-
Tazewell-Smyth-Mercer-Summers-Western Greenbrier-
343 PM EST Sun Jan 20 2019

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON EST MONDAY...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for southwest Virginia and
southeast West Virginia.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Winter Weather Advisory.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Winter Weather Advisory.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

NCZ001-002-018-VAZ015>017-022-211200-
Ashe-Alleghany NC-Watauga-Grayson-Carroll-Floyd-Roanoke-
343 PM EST Sun Jan 20 2019

...HIGH WIND WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 AM EST MONDAY...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for northwest North Carolina,
southwest Virginia and west central Virginia.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   High Wind Warning.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   High Wind Warning.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

NCZ003>006-019-020-VAZ058-059-211200-
Surry-Stokes-Rockingham-Caswell-Wilkes-Yadkin-Halifax-Charlotte-
343 PM EST Sun Jan 20 2019

...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 AM EST MONDAY...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for north central North Carolina,
northwest North Carolina and south central Virginia.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Wind Advisory.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Wind Advisory.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.