Alert archive / Virginia / Special Weather Statements in 2019

Special Weather Statement, NWS Blacksburg, VA

August 1, 2019City of Lynchburg, Virginia

NWS Blacksburg, VA issued this special weather statement at Aug 1, 2019, 8:45 PM EDT for City of Lynchburg, Virginia. It was in force for 30 min. No storm report in the archive falls inside the area while it was in force.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued: Aug 1, 2019, 8:45 PM EDT (00:45 UTC)
Expired: Aug 1, 2019, 9:15 PM EDT
In force: 30 min
Issued by: NWS Blacksburg, VA

County City of Lynchburg, VA

The radar

The Roanoke radar (KFCX), 91 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 00:46 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The nearest sounding before it

Roanoke, VA (KRNK), launched 00:00Z, 0.8 hours before the alert went out and 21 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-p

Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.

Hodograph

The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.

Mixed-layer CAPE: 176 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN: -130 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL: 1312 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear: 19 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity: 11 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity: 9 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter: 0.0
Supercell composite: 0.0

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted.

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What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before this special weather statement went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Blacksburg, VA wrote its last area forecast discussion before this special weather statement went out at Aug 1, 7:04 PM EDT, 1 hour 41 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, Aug 1, 7:04 PM EDT, 1 hour 41 minutes before

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Blacksburg VA
704 PM EDT Thu Aug 1 2019

.SYNOPSIS...
Little change in the weather pattern is expected through
Saturday, as an old frontal boundary will combine with upper
level disturbances to keep showers and thunderstorms across the
Appalachians and central mid Atlantic region into the weekend.
The boundary will continue to weaken and erode Sunday through
Tuesday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 205 PM EDT Thursday...

In similar fashion to the last several days, scattered
thunderstorms have developed early this afternoon. Not a lot
of dynamic support for widespread organized convection, but
outflow boundary interaction, moderate instability, and elevated
DCAPE values will help storms produce strong gusty winds. Heavy
rainfall is also possible with the stronger storms, and while
precipitable water values are a bit lower today slow storm
motion and training cells will create some localized hydro
issues.

Expect a diurnal trend to convection, though there are indications
that boundary interactions will keep showers/storms going east
of the Blue Ridge a bit deeper into the night. There will also
be some fog, especially in the valleys west of the Blue Ridge.

With little change in the overall pattern and a steady supply of
subtle short waves, expect another round of showers/thunder on
Thursday with a continued localized severe/hydro threat.

Temperatures tonight will be mild with readings in the 60s.
Highs tomorrow will be cooler with readings generally in the
lower 80s east of the Ridge, mid/upper 70s to the west.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
As of 205 PM EDT Thursday...

Weak frontal boundary should linger across the region into Saturday
night, shifting south Sunday. Airmass remains unstable/moist during
this time, though best coverage for storms will be Friday evening
and Saturday, with a bit of lull Sat night/early Sunday.

Will see best coverage closer to the front Sunday in the southern
forecast area. Temps will run close to seasonal normals for highs
and lows.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 205 PM EDT Thursday...

Models stay fairly consistent this period with a broad trough across
the Great Lakes into the Tennessee Valley. One shortwave moves
across Monday into early Tuesday, the another arrives by Thursday.
Adjusted pops based on the blend of the ECMWF and GFS allowing for
more coverage Monday ahead of the shortwave, with more diurnal/less
coverage Tuesday-Wednesday, the better chances for Thursday.

The airmass maintains the humidity and close to seasonal normals for
early August through the period.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 700 PM EDT Thursday...

Bands/clusters of thunderstorms continue to linger across the
south and west where instability is also being undercut via
outflow from earlier convection. Expect a diurnal trend to
convection again this evening, though there are some
indications that boundary interactions will keep showers/storms
going east of the Blue Ridge a bit deeper into the night but
iffy. Some storms will produce heavy rainfall and reduce flight
categories to MVFR/IFR. To cover the situation will continue the
use of VCTS, with an early tempo especially along/west of the
Blue Ridge, and amend as necessary. Also expect some fog
overnight, especially west of the Blue Ridge, with some
locations trending down to IFR/LIFR. Convection will fire once
again on Friday with VCSH early on followed by prevailing tsra
in spots Friday afternoon.

Winds near thunderstorms will be variable and gusty. Winds
outside of storms will generally be light.

.Extended Aviation Discussion...

A weak boundary will remain close to the region through
Saturday. Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms with
periods of sub-VFR ceilings can be expected through Sunday or
Monday with coverage becoming less by Tuesday. This pattern
will also result in MVFR or lower clouds and MVFR fog due to
moist low levels, especially at night.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...None.
NC...None.
WV...None.

&&

SYNOPSIS...MBS
NEAR TERM...MBS
SHORT TERM...DS
LONG TERM...RAB
AVIATION...AMS/JH/MBS

Hazardous weather outlook, Aug 1, 4:56 AM EDT, 15 hours 49 minutes before

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Blacksburg VA
456 AM EDT Thu Aug 1 2019

NCZ001>006-018>020-VAZ007-009>020-022>024-032>035-043>047-058-059-
WVZ042>044-507-508-020900-
Ashe-Alleghany NC-Surry-Stokes-Rockingham-Caswell-Watauga-Wilkes-
Yadkin-Tazewell-Smyth-Bland-Giles-Wythe-Pulaski-Montgomery-Grayson-
Carroll-Floyd-Craig-Alleghany VA-Bath-Roanoke-Botetourt-Rockbridge-
Patrick-Franklin-Bedford-Amherst-Henry-Pittsylvania-Campbell-
Appomattox-Buckingham-Halifax-Charlotte-Mercer-Summers-Monroe-
Eastern Greenbrier-Western Greenbrier-
456 AM EDT Thu Aug 1 2019

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for north central North Carolina,
northwest North Carolina, central Virginia, south central Virginia,
southwest Virginia, west central Virginia and southeast West
Virginia.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms may produce locally
heavy rainfall this afternoon until late this evening. Localized
flooding is possible. A few of the more intense storms may be strong
to severe, with the primary threat damaging wind.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms are expected both
Friday and Saturday. The main hazard will be locally heavy rainfall.
The repeated may result in localized flooding. A few storms could
also be strong to severe, with the primary threat damaging wind.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

In the hours before

Local storm report, Aug 1, 8:09 PM EDT, 36 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
809 PM EDT THU AUG 1 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0508 PM     TSTM WND DMG     4 ENE SINKING CREEK     37.44N 80.22W
08/01/2019                   CRAIG              VA   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            A FEW TREES DOWN NEAR THE INTERSECTION OF
            CUMBERLAND GAP ROAD AND MOUNTAIN SIDE DRIVE.
            TIME ESTIMATED FROM RADAR.

&&

VFJ

Local storm report, Aug 1, 8:13 PM EDT, 32 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
813 PM EDT THU AUG 1 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0406 PM     TSTM WND DMG     2 N INDIAN VALLEY       36.94N 80.55W
08/01/2019                   FLOYD              VA   911 CALL CENTER

            TREE DOWN AT INTERSECTION OF INDIAN CREEK
            ROAD AND INDIAN VALLEY ROAD. TIME ESTIMATED
            FROM RADAR.

&&

VFJ

Local storm report, Aug 1, 8:15 PM EDT, 30 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
815 PM EDT THU AUG 1 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0406 PM     TSTM WND DMG     2 N INDIAN VALLEY       36.94N 80.55W
08/01/2019                   FLOYD              VA   911 CALL CENTER

            CORRECTS PREVIOUS TSTM WND DMG REPORT FROM 2
            N INDIAN VALLEY. TREE DOWN ON DUNCAN VALLEY
            ROAD. TIME ESTIMATED FROM RADAR.

&&

VFJ

Local storm report, Aug 1, 8:16 PM EDT, 29 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
816 PM EDT THU AUG 1 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0403 PM     TSTM WND DMG     1 NE INDIAN VALLEY      36.93N 80.53W
08/01/2019                   FLOYD              VA   911 CALL CENTER

            TREE DOWN AT THE INTERSECTION OF INDIAN
            CREEK ROAD AND INDIAN VALLEY ROAD. TIME
            ESTIMATED FROM RADAR.

&&

VFJ

Local storm report, Aug 1, 8:43 PM EDT, 2 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
843 PM EDT THU AUG 1 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0736 PM     TSTM WND DMG     1 SE LEXINGTON          37.78N 79.44W
08/01/2019                   CITY OF LEXINGTON  VA   PUBLIC

            MULTIPLE LARGE BRANCHES DOWN IN THE 300
            BLOCK OF SUMMIT STREET.

&&

VFJ

Special weather statement, Aug 1, 8:45 PM EDT, 0 minutes before

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service BLACKSBURG VA
845 PM EDT Thu Aug 1 2019

VAZ034-020115-
Bedford-
845 PM EDT Thu Aug 1 2019

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT NORTHEASTERN BEDFORD...

Until 915 PM EDT.

At 844 PM EDT, a strong thunderstorm was located over Forest, moving
south at 5 mph.

Winds in excess of 40 mph and pea size hail are possible with this
storm.

Locations impacted include...
Forest...
Goode...
and Timberlake.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may cause
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

LAT...LON 3725 7932 3727 7944 3746 7938 3743 7926
      3735 7926
TIME...MOT...LOC 0044Z 002DEG 6KT 3737 7932

RS

The office that day

Everything else NWS Blacksburg, VA issued on the same UTC day.

Issued	Product	Office	Counties	Lasted
Aug 1, 8:25 PM EDT	Areal Flood Advisory	RNK	City of Lynchburg	43 min
Aug 1, 8:25 PM EDT	Areal Flood Advisory	RNK	Smyth	3 hr
Aug 1, 9:02 PM EDT	Flash Flood Warning	RNK	Amherst, Bedford, City of Lynchburg	4 hr
Aug 1, 9:14 PM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	RNK	Campbell	61 min
Aug 1, 10:45 PM EDT	Special Weather Statement	RNK	Charlotte	60 min
Aug 1, 11:06 PM EDT	Areal Flood Advisory	RNK	Appomattox, Campbell, Charlotte	4 hr
Aug 1, 11:37 PM EDT	Special Weather Statement	RNK	Halifax	53 min
Aug 2, 12:38 AM EDT	Special Weather Statement	RNK	Halifax	22 min
Aug 2, 1:17 AM EDT	Areal Flood Warning	RNK	Amherst, Bedford, City of Lynchburg	118 min
Aug 2, 12:47 PM EDT	Special Weather Statement	RNK	Grayson	28 min
Aug 2, 1:29 PM EDT	Areal Flood Advisory	RNK	Grayson, Smyth	3 hr
Aug 2, 1:56 PM EDT	Special Weather Statement	RNK	Smyth, Wythe	34 min
Aug 2, 2:32 PM EDT	Special Weather Statement	RNK	Grayson	43 min
Aug 2, 4:36 PM EDT	Special Weather Statement	RNK	Charlotte	39 min
Aug 2, 1:13 PM EDT	Special Weather Statement	RNK	Ashe	47 min
Aug 2, 3:36 PM EDT	Special Weather Statement	RNK	Alleghany	54 min
Aug 2, 3:49 PM EDT	Special Weather Statement	RNK	Watauga	41 min

Nearby

Special Weather Statements in Virginia, 2019 Every special weather statement in 2019

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.