Severe Thunderstorm Warning 43, NWS Blacksburg, VA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Blacksburg VA
Issued by National Weather Service Raleigh NC
416 PM EDT Fri May 3 2019

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front will approach the region tonight and cross our
area Saturday afternoon and evening. Drier high pressure will
filter into the region late Sunday and remain over the area
through Wednesday. Our next weather system will move through the
central Appalachians and the mid-Atlantic region Wednesday
night into Friday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
As of 245 PM EDT Friday...

A cold front was situated from northwest Pennsylvania southwest
into central Tennessee. A disturbance in advance of this front
will continue to be responsible for triggering showers and
thunderstorms across the region the remainder of this afternoon
and this evening. Coverage will be greatest across the mountains
with the potential for some of these storms to be on the strong
to severe side, especially over southeast West Virginia. A
Severe Thunderstorm Watch continues for this area until 1000 PM
EDT. Damaging wind gusts are the greatest threat from any storm
that strengthen to severe levels in this area, with large hail a
secondary threat.

The activity will progress eastward through the night and
transition to isolated to scattered showers after midnight. With
plenty of surface moisture, patchy fog will again be possible
late tonight into early Saturday morning, especially those areas
that are impacted the most this evening and tonight by heavy
rains. Once skies trend mostly cloudy to cloudy this evening,
they will remain that way through the night.

Low temperatures overnight will range from the mid to upper 50s
across the mountains to the low to mid 60s across the Piedmont.

On Saturday, the cold front to our west will approach and move
about half-way across the area by sunset. The result will be
another day with scattered showers and storms with the best
potential for strong to severe storm across the southern and
southwestern sections of the area, altough, all parts of the
forecast area will have a potential. If severe weather occurs,
the greatest threats will be damaging winds and equally, large
hail. Thanks to greater coverage of precipitation and cloudy
skies to start the day, high temperatures on an average will be
slightly cooler than readings of today. Highs on Saturday will
range from the upper 60s to lower 70s across the mountains with
values of around 80 to the lower 80s across the Piedmont.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
As of 330 PM EDT Friday...

Frontal showers are expected to become more more prolific
Saturday evening into Saturday night as combination of Surface
front and an upper level disturbance crosses the region. The
actual surface front is not expected to cross the forecast area
until Sunday, so opportunity will exist for showers into the day
Sunday, although with the expectation for things to dry out
from west to east during the day Sunday.

Similar to Saturday, there will be an opportunity for Strong
to Severe storms Saturday evening with enhanced wind flow aloft
raising potential for strong surface wind gusts associated with
any storms that develop. This zone of enhanced wind and
associated instability is expected to wane after midnight with
general but widespread shower threat continuing until the
front clears the forecast area Sunday.

Temperatures until Sunday's frontal passage are expected to
remain mild, readings remaining elevated due to the high
moisture content of the airmass.

The upper trough will slide east Sunday allowing the flow to
become more zonal. This will give the surface front a nudge to
the south and east, High pressure building southeast across our
area, associated with a dry airmass for Monday. Temperatures
will return closer to the seasonal norm, although still favoring
the warmer side of climatology by about 5 degrees.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 345 PM EDT Friday...

Zonal flow will be quick to recycle weather systems from the
central and western CONUS. This suggests a high likelihood for
showers and storms to return to the forecast for the middle and
end of next week.

High pressure will slide east into Tuesday, return flow
bringing moisture and increasing dewpoints back to the forecast
area. Another frontal boundary is expected to sink southward
from the northern U.S. by Wednesday. This feature is expected to
stall and become the focus for multiple waves of low pressure
from Wednesday through Friday.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 145 PM EDT Friday...

Isolated showers and storms are beginning to fire along and west
of KTNB-KLWB line. Coverage is expected to increase through the
afternoon and early evening and extend east to the crest of the
Blue Ridge. While VFR conditions will be the norm through the
afternoon, brief, localized sub-VFR conditions will exist under
the heaviest showers and storms. Overnight, a shortwave trough
will move into the region and flight categories will trend into
MVFR then IFR levels across most of the mountains and eventually
into the Piedmont. Obstructions, will be due a combination of the
showers and storms and light fog that will develop.

Saturday morning, while most of the precipitation will have
exited the area, fog will remain an issue for many locations,
especially those impacted the greatest by the precipitation this
afternoon through tonight. While there will be a gradual
improvement in ceiling heights through the morning, most areas
will not be any better than MVFR at the conclusion of the valid
TAF period, 18Z/2PM Saturday.

Our next round of showers will advance into the far western
portion of the forecast area late in the valid TAF period.

Forecast confidence in the above portion of the aviation
discussion is moderate. While the overall synoptic trends are of
moderate to high confidence, details in the specific locations
with the worst flight conditions are low to moderate.

EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

Flight conditions will continue sub-VFR Saturday afternoon and
evening with the arrival and passage of a cold front.

Expect improving flight conditions late Saturday night into early
Sunday as the last of the showers exit the region and drier air
works its way into the area.

Primarily VFR conditions will exist Sunday through Tuesday as
high pressure dominates our weather pattern. The exception will be
the potential for some late night/early morning fog within the
river and mountain valleys.

A warm front will lift through the area on Wednesday. While
conditions will still primarily be VFR, a return of showers to
mainly the western half to the region will increase our chances of
some patchy sub-VFR conditions.

Forecast confidence in the above portion of the aviation
discussion is moderate.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...None.
NC...None.
WV...None.

&&

SYNOPSIS...DS
NEAR TERM...DS
SHORT TERM...KK/PM
LONG TERM...KK/PM
AVIATION...DS/JH/RAB

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Blacksburg VA
Issued by National Weather Service Raleigh NC
229 PM EDT Fri May 3 2019

NCZ001>003-018-019-VAZ007-009>020-022>024-032>035-041830-
Ashe-Alleghany NC-Surry-Watauga-Wilkes-Tazewell-Smyth-Bland-Giles-
Wythe-Pulaski-Montgomery-Grayson-Carroll-Floyd-Craig-Alleghany VA-
Bath-Roanoke-Botetourt-Rockbridge-Patrick-Franklin-Bedford-Amherst-
229 PM EDT Fri May 3 2019

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for north central North Carolina,
northwest North Carolina, central Virginia, south central Virginia,
southwest Virginia and west central Virginia.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

Scattered to numerous thunderstorms are expected through this
evening. A few of these could become strong to severe, with quarter
to half-dollar sized hail, damaging wind gusts, and heavy rainfall
leading to localized flooding.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday.

Scattered to numerous thunderstorms are expected again Saturday and
Saturday evening. A few of these thunderstorms could become strong
to severe producing quarter to half-dollar sized hail, damaging
wind gusts, and heavy rainfall leading to localized flooding.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

NCZ004>006-020-VAZ043>047-058-059-041830-
Stokes-Rockingham-Caswell-Yadkin-Henry-Pittsylvania-Campbell-
Appomattox-Buckingham-Halifax-Charlotte-
229 PM EDT Fri May 3 2019

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for north central North Carolina,
northwest North Carolina, central Virginia and south central
Virginia.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

Scattered thunderstorms are expected through this evening. One or
two of these could become strong to severe producing quarter- sized
hail and damaging wind gusts. The strongest storms will also produce
heavy rainfall which could lead to localized flooding.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday.

Scattered to numerous thunderstorms are expected Saturday and
Saturday evening. A few of these thunderstorms could become strong
to severe producing quarter to half-dollar sized hail, damaging
wind gusts, and heavy rainfall leading to localized flooding.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

WVZ042>044-507-508-041830-
Mercer-Summers-Monroe-Eastern Greenbrier-Western Greenbrier-
229 PM EDT Fri May 3 2019

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 125 IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for southeast West Virginia.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Severe Thunderstorm Watch.

Scattered to numerous thunderstorms are expected through this
evening. A few of these could become strong to severe, with quarter
to half-dollar sized hail, damaging wind gusts, and heavy rainfall
leading to localized flooding.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday.

Scattered to numerous thunderstorms are expected again Saturday and
Saturday evening. A few of these thunderstorms could become strong
to severe producing quarter to half-dollar sized hail, damaging
wind gusts, and heavy rainfall leading to localized flooding.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed.

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