Severe Thunderstorm Warning 40, NWS Blacksburg, VA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Blacksburg VA
323 PM EDT Thu May 2 2019

.SYNOPSIS...
The area will remain in a warm and humid air mass with scattered
showers and storms across the region until a cold front crosses the
region late Saturday into Saturday night. High pressure will start
to build into the region, and be in place across the region through
at least Wednesday. The chance of showers and storms will start to
increase again Thursday into Friday with the approach of another
cold front.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 300 PM EDT Thursday...

Scattered showers and storms will continue the remainder of the
afternoon hours and into the early evening hours across the same
general region as they exist currently. The bulk of the activity was
along and perhaps one tier of counties east of the crest of the Blue
Ridge. Another cluster of showers and storms were generally along
and south of Route 460 between Blacksburg and Bluefield and points
south. Additional migration of the activity farther east into the VA
and NC Piedmont region is also expected. Limited if any showers and
storms are expected in the Danville, VA area and points south and
east of there.

This activity was situated within a warm and humid airmass in
advance of an approaching shortwave trough. This feature is expected
to sharpen in amplitude heading through tonight and into Friday.
This translation will have the effect of creating a temporary
shortwave ridge across our region later tonight into at least the
first half of Friday. This will place the region within a less
favorable regime for shower and storm development on Friday morning.
However, development is expected Friday afternoon in advance of
the approaching cold front, however, coverage will be focused
more across the southwestern and western sections of the area as
compared to today's activity. As evening approaches the
activity will be heading eastward through the area in advance of
the associated front.

The Storm Prediction Center has placed roughly the western half of
the region tomorrow and tomorrow night with a Marginal risk of
severe weather. Damaging winds are the greatest threat.

Temperatures will remain on the mild side. Low temperatures tonight
will range from the mid to upper 50s across the mountains with
readings around 60 to the lower 60s across the Piedmont. High
temperatures on Friday will range from the upper 70s to around 80
across the mountains with low to mid 80s across the Piedmont.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
As of 254 PM EDT Thursday...

Generally should be unsettled most of this period as slow moving
front edges east and southeast from the mid-Atlantic to central MS
Valley Friday evening to east of the piedmont by Sunday evening.

Several waves of low pressure and upper vorts will bring periodic
episodes of showers and thunderstorms. The models are showing better
clustering toward high pops in the mountains Friday evening, the
somewhat drier late Friday night into early Saturday morning, as one
vort axis moves east of the piedmont by 8am Sat. The next arrives
across the mountains by midday, with a better shortwave along the
front moving across the Ohio Valley into PA by Sat afternoon. Some
upper divergence and stronger low level forcing. Mid level lapse
rates are not overly impressive, but low level lapse rates should be
fairly steep Saturday afternoon especially along/east of the Blue
Ridge. SBCapes will be around 1000 or more in the piedmont, and
marginal risk per SPC looks fine for now, so expect some gusty winds
and marginally severe hail potential east of the Blue Ridge Sat
afternoon.

Surface wave along the front will slide into northern VA by Sunday
morning with continued high pops into Sat night/Sunday morning, with
drier air starting to work into the mountains late in the day,
though upper trough axis may stay west of the area into Sunday
night, the deeper moisture should be east of us.

Temps will stay above normal through the period, though lows may
close in toward normal Sunday night.

Confidence is good for shower and storm chances through the period,
with Saturday looking like the more active day.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 125 PM EDT Thursday...

High pressure settles over the area Monday into Tuesday with
building 5h heights. Ridge breaks down midweek with approach of a
front and strong trough in the middle of the country. Will see pops
increasing but temps will stay above normal.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 130 PM EDT Thursday...

Mainly VFR conditions prevail across the region. Isolated to
scattered showers and storms have developed across the area, and
are expected to continue doing so through the afternoon. The
greatest concentration will be along and just east of the crest
of the Blue Ridge. Patchy MVFR conditions are possible for
ceilings across the mountains, and for brief, isolated sub-VFR
conditions for areas under the heavier showers and storms.

As we head through the evening hours, showers and storms will
gradually dissipate from southeast to northwest. Patchy sub-VFR
ceilings will linger across the mountains.

Showers and storms will be at a minimum through the morning and
early afternoon. A best isolated showers are possible along and
west of a KLWB-KTNB line. Most ceilings through the morning will
be low end VFR with patchy MVFR conditions, especially across
the mountains. Winds through the forecast period will be light
from the south or southwest during the daylight hours and light
and variable overnight.

METAR observations are not available in our system for any of
our ASOS terminal sites. Until they return, will maintain a "AMD
NOT SKED" remark at the impacted TAF forecast locations.

EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

A weak cold front will cross the area Friday evening and night.
Look for increased coverage of showers and storms with localized
sub-VFR conditions with the associated cloud cover, showers and
storms.

A stronger cold front will cross the region Saturday night.
Anticipate another round of showers and storms with a greater
coverage of sub-VFR conditions.

Sunday, winds will be gusty from the northwest behind the
exiting cold front, and most locations will return to VFR. The
exception of will be some upslope clouds/scattered showers
across the southeast West Va mountains.

Monday and Tuesday VFR conditions and lighter and variable
winds are expected as high pressure builds into the area. Late
in the day Tuesday, winds will start to increase from the south
as the center of the high shifts east.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...None.
NC...None.
WV...None.

&&

SYNOPSIS...DS
NEAR TERM...DS
SHORT TERM...WP
LONG TERM...WP
AVIATION...DS

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Blacksburg VA
333 PM EDT Thu May 2 2019

NCZ005-006-VAZ058-059-031945-
Rockingham-Caswell-Halifax-Charlotte-
333 PM EDT Thu May 2 2019

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for north central North Carolina
and south central Virginia.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

There is a low probability for widespread hazardous weather.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

There is a low probability for widespread hazardous weather.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

NCZ001>003-018-019-VAZ007-009>020-022>024-032>035-WVZ042>044-507-508-
031945-
Ashe-Alleghany NC-Surry-Watauga-Wilkes-Tazewell-Smyth-Bland-Giles-
Wythe-Pulaski-Montgomery-Grayson-Carroll-Floyd-Craig-Alleghany VA-
Bath-Roanoke-Botetourt-Rockbridge-Patrick-Franklin-Bedford-Amherst-
Mercer-Summers-Monroe-Eastern Greenbrier-Western Greenbrier-
333 PM EDT Thu May 2 2019

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for north central North Carolina,
northwest North Carolina, central Virginia, south central Virginia,
southwest Virginia, west central Virginia and southeast West
Virginia.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

Scattered showers and thunderstorms will continue into the evening
hours. A few of the storms may produce winds with gusts around 40
mph, small hail, and locally heavy rainfall.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

Scattered thunderstorms are expected Friday afternoon and evening.
Some of these storms could be on the strong side, with damaging winds
the greatest severe threat.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

NCZ004-020-VAZ043>047-031945-
Stokes-Yadkin-Henry-Pittsylvania-Campbell-Appomattox-Buckingham-
333 PM EDT Thu May 2 2019

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for north central North Carolina,
northwest North Carolina, central Virginia and south central
Virginia.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

Scattered showers and thunderstorms will continue into the evening
hours. A few of the storms may produce winds with gusts around 40
mph, small hail, and locally heavy rainfall.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

There is a low probability for widespread hazardous weather.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service BLACKSBURG VA
356 PM EDT Thu May 2 2019

VAZ023-034-022045-
Botetourt-Bedford-
356 PM EDT Thu May 2 2019

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT PORTIONS OF BEDFORD AND
BOTETOURT COUNTIES...

Until 445 PM EDT.

At 355 PM EDT, strong thunderstorms extending from near Daleville to
Peaks Of Otter Recreation Area. Movement was northeast at 10 mph.

Wind gusts up to 50 mph and nickel size hail are possible with these
storms.

Locations impacted include...
Buchanan...
Troutville...
Fincastle...
Nace...
and Arcadia.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with these storms, and may
cause localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

These storms may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

LAT...LON 3755 7952 3753 7950 3754 7948 3754 7938
      3740 7959 3742 7998 3756 7982
TIME...MOT...LOC 1955Z 230DEG 10KT 3745 7990 3745 7962

MBS

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service BLACKSBURG VA
404 PM EDT Thu May 2 2019

VAZ010-011-022045-
Giles-Bland-
404 PM EDT Thu May 2 2019

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT Bland and Western Giles
Counties...

Until 445 PM EDT.

At 403 PM EDT, a strong thunderstorm was located over Bastian, moving
northeast at 20 mph.

Winds in excess of 40 mph and half inch hail are possible with this
storm.

Locations impacted include...
Bland...
Narrows...
Peterstown...
Rocky Gap...
and Bastian.

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

LAT...LON 3730 8099 3729 8097 3731 8090 3735 8085
      3737 8087 3740 8080 3720 8074 3706 8118
      3718 8123
TIME...MOT...LOC 2003Z 240DEG 18KT 3716 8113

SK

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
405 PM EDT THU MAY 2 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0310 PM     TSTM WND DMG     ROCKY MOUNT             37.00N 79.89W
05/02/2019                   FRANKLIN           VA   911 CALL CENTER

            TREE DOWN ON POWER LINES. TIME ESTIMATED BY
            RADAR.

&&

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