Severe Thunderstorm Warning 231, NWS Blacksburg, VA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Blacksburg VA
315 PM EDT Tue Aug 20 2019

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will remain over the region tonight resulting in a
continuation of the hot and humid weather. A cold front
approaches by the middle of the week bringing increasing chances
of showers and thunderstorms Wednesday into Thursday. This
front should finally work southeast through the area Friday into
Saturday. Drier and less humid weather will push in from the
north Saturday night into Sunday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 314 PM EDT Tuesday...

A MCV will move east across northern Virginia this afternoon into
tonight. The combination of strong surface heating, orographic lift,
low level boundaries, upper shortwaves will generate scattered
showers and thunderstorms. Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms
are possible this afternoon into this evening. The strongest storms
will be capable of producing damaging wind gusts, large hail and
heavy rains. This is highlighted by the marginal threat in the SPC
Day One Convective outlook. With high PWATS and weak mean flow,
local flooding problems are possible. The best chance for
thunderstorms will be along and west of the Blue Ridge Mountains
with the low level convergence, aided by an axis of higher
theta-e and differential heating ahead of shortwave to the
north.

Convection will diminish with the loss of solar heating this evening
into tonight. A few showers may linger tonight especially in the
west with residual outflow. Low temperatures tonight will range from
the upper 50s in the mountains to around 70 degrees in the piedmont.

The hot and humid weather with scattered showers and thunderstorms
will continue Wednesday. A couple of shortwave moving across
the region will enhance the convection as the cold front slowly
moves south towards our region. The SPC Day 2 convective outlook
indicated the potential for severe storms with a marginal risk.
High temperatures Wednesday will vary from the lower 80s in the
west to the lower 90s in the east.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
As of 314 PM EDT Tuesday...

Lingering instabilities and a weak low level jet will keep storms
going deep into Wednesday night. PWATs remain elevated for storms to
produce torrential downpours. However, given spotty nature of
convection, any flooding will be localized.

A slow moving cold front will drift south across the upper
Mississippi and Ohio Valleys Thursday. Strong to severe convection
likely east of the Blue Ridge, possible further west if morning
mountain showers do not develop. Currently, SPC does not have the
area outlooked, but that may change if the front is slower allowing
prefrontal short waves to pass over the region during peak heating.
Storms should also be more organized than previous days tracking
west to east around 20-30 MPH. The GFS moves the front across the
area Thursday night, while the ECM is 24 hours slower. If the ECM is
correct, Thursday will be another pulse convection day and Friday
will have more organized storms.

Thursday will be another warmer than normal day with temperatures
ranging from the 80s across the mountains to lower 90s east. If the
front is delayed, we will see similar temperatures on Friday. If the
front does slide across the region Thursday night, Friday's highs
will run cooler than normal with readings in the upper 70s west of
the Blue Ridge to low to mid 80s east.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 245 PM EDT Monday...

Once the end-of-the-week cold front moves south of the area, cool
dry high pressure will move over the region. If the front moves into
South Carolina over the weekend, rain is not expected to return to
the area until Monday or Tuesday. However, 12Z models now trending
to have the front stall in North Carolina with rain returning to the
area Monday.

Wherever the front stalls this weekend, cool easterly flow will
keep temperatures below normal. Temperatures will remain cooler than
normal Monday and Tuesday, especially if rain returns and falls into
the wedge.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 140 PM EDT Tuesday...

VFR conditions will prevail this afternoon into tonight. Isolated
to scattered MVFR/IFR showers and thunderstorms expected this
afternoon into this evening. The best chances for thunderstorms
will be along and west of the Blue ridge mountains. Mean wind
aloft is forecast under 15 kts, so storm cells that develop
should be slow moving.

Any residual convection will fade with loss of heating this
evening although isolated storms could linger into tonight per
lingering instability and outflow. Otherwise, looking at mostly
VFR conditions tonight with patchy fog/stratus late tonight into
Wednesday morning. Some lower cigs associated with stratus
heading up from the southwest riding up along the Blue Ridge
late. MVFR ceilings are possible in the west tonight into
Wednesday morning.

Medium confidence in ceilings,visibilities and winds during the
taf period.

.Extended Aviation Discussion...

The airmass will remain unchanged through mid-week with daily
threat for showers and thunderstorms. A cold front will
approach from the northwest later in the week, resulting in an
uptick in shower/thunderstorm activity with potential for
organized deep convection across the Ohio Valley which may move
downstream and into the Mid-Atlantic region as an MCS or series
of MCSs.

Improving conditions with more in the way of VFR will be
possible for the weekend, pending just how far south of the
area the front makes it.

&&

.CLIMATE...
As of 250 AM EDT Tuesday...

Record Daily Maximum Temps:

Tuesday 8/20:
ROA: 104/1983
BLF: 92/1914
DAN: 101/1925
LYH: 102/1983
BCB: 92/1983

Wednesday 8/21:
ROA: 105/1983
BLF: 94/1936
DAN: 104/1983
LYH: 101/1983
BCB: 98/1983

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...None.
NC...None.
WV...None.

&&

SYNOPSIS...JH/KK
NEAR TERM...KK
SHORT TERM...RCS
LONG TERM...RCS
AVIATION...JH/KK
CLIMATE...PH

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Blacksburg VA
326 PM EDT Tue Aug 20 2019

NCZ001>006-018>020-VAZ007-009>020-022>024-032>035-043>047-058-059-
WVZ042>044-507-508-211930-
Ashe-Alleghany NC-Surry-Stokes-Rockingham-Caswell-Watauga-Wilkes-
Yadkin-Tazewell-Smyth-Bland-Giles-Wythe-Pulaski-Montgomery-Grayson-
Carroll-Floyd-Craig-Alleghany VA-Bath-Roanoke-Botetourt-Rockbridge-
Patrick-Franklin-Bedford-Amherst-Henry-Pittsylvania-Campbell-
Appomattox-Buckingham-Halifax-Charlotte-Mercer-Summers-Monroe-
Eastern Greenbrier-Western Greenbrier-
326 PM EDT Tue Aug 20 2019

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for north central North Carolina,
northwest North Carolina, central Virginia, south central Virginia,
southwest Virginia, west central Virginia and southeast West
Virginia.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

Strong to isolated severe thunderstorms producing locally damaging
winds and very heavy rainfall will be possible this afternoon into
this evening. Some hail may also occur with the stronger storms.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday.

There is a marginal risk for severe thunderstorms on Wednesday with
the main threat being possible damaging wind, hail and heavy rains.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

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