Alert archive / Virginia / River Flood Warnings in 2019

River Flood Warning 2, NWS Blacksburg, VA

January 23, 2019Halifax County, Virginia

NWS Blacksburg, VA issued this river flood warning at Jan 23, 2019, 10:03 AM EST for Halifax County, Virginia. It took effect at Jan 24, 2019, 10:46 PM EST. It was in force for 42 hr.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued
Jan 23, 2019, 10:03 AM EST (15:03 UTC)
In effect from
Jan 24, 2019, 10:46 PM EST
Expired
Jan 26, 2019, 4:27 PM EST
In force
42 hr
Issued by
NWS Blacksburg, VA
Area
Storm-based polygon
Flood severity
Minor

County Halifax County, VA

The radar

The Raleigh/Durham radar (KRAX), 118 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 15:07 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The river

Written for the forecast point Dan River at South Boston (SBNV2). The gauge peaked at 21.80 ft at Jan 26, 2019, 1:00 AM EST.

actionminormoderate1520253001/2301/2401/2501/2601/27
Action stage
18 ft
Minor stage
22 ft
Moderate stage
29 ft
Major stage
34 ft

This gauge today: stage, forecast and historic crests

Stage from the USGS instantaneous record for site 02076000, one reading an hour, from a day before the product to a day after it ended. Flood stages are today's.

The text

As transmitted.

193 
WGUS41 KRNK 231503
FLWRNK
 
BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
FLOOD WARNING 
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA  
1003 AM EST Wed Jan 23 2019

...The National Weather Service Blacksburg Va has issued
a Flood Warning for the following rivers in Virginia...

  Dan River at South Boston affecting Halifax County


 ...A cold front is expected to produce 1-1.5 inches of rain 
 tonight through Thursday across the Dan basin, greatest in the 
 headwaters. Expected rains and runoff upstream from this rain 
 should cause the Dan at South Boston to rise to 
 minor flood stage early Friday, with a crest at 22.1 feet
 on Saturday. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Do not drive through flooded areas...the water may be much deeper 
than you think.

Listen to noaa weather radio or your favorite media outlet for later 
statements or warnings.

&&

VAC083-240303-
/O.NEW.KRNK.FL.W.0002.190125T1106Z-190127T2130Z/
/SBNV2.1.ER.190125T1106Z.190126T1200Z.190127T0930Z.NO/
1003 AM EST Wed Jan 23 2019

The National Weather Service in Blacksburg Va has issued a 

* Flood Warning for 
  the Dan River at South Boston
* from Friday morning until Sunday afternoon
* At 09AM Wednesday the stage was 12.6 feet.
* Flood Stage is 19.0 feet. 
* Minor flooding is forecast. 
* Flood history...this crest compares to a previous crest of 21.6 
  feet on May 7 2017.

&&

LAT...LON 3660 7898 3672 7902 3675 7884 3668 7879
                                      

$$
11 follow-up statements
755 
WGUS81 KRNK 240202
FLSRNK
 
FLOOD STATEMENT 
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA 
902 PM EST Wed Jan 23 2019

...The Flood Warning continues for the following rivers in 
Virginia...
 
  Dan River at South Boston affecting Halifax County 

A cold front is expected to produce 1-1.5 inches of rain tonight
through Thursday across the Dan River basin, with the greatest
amounts in the headwaters and upper part of the basin. Expected
runoff upstream from this rain should cause the Dan at South Boston
to rise to and exceed minor flood stage by early Friday, cresting
around 21.0 feet during the day Saturday.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Do not drive through flooded areas...the water may be much deeper 
than you think.

 Graphical forecast information is available on the internet at 
http://www.weather.gov/rnk (lower case). Click on 'rivers & lakes'.
 
The next scheduled statement will be issued Thursday before noon.

&&

VAC083-241001-
/O.EXT.KRNK.FL.W.0002.190125T1923Z-190127T1724Z/
/SBNV2.1.ER.190125T1923Z.190126T1200Z.190127T0524Z.NO/
902 PM EST Wed Jan 23 2019

The Flood Warning continues for
  the Dan River at South Boston.
* from Friday early afternoon until Sunday afternoon.
* at 9 PM EST Wednesday the stage was 12.3 feet...and nearly steady.
* Flood stage is 19.0 feet. Moderate Flood stage is 25.0 feet.
* Forecast to rise above flood stage by early Friday afternoon and 
  continue to rise to near 20.9 feet by Saturday morning. The river 
  is then expected to fall below flood stage by early Sunday morning.
* Impact...at 19.0 feet...Flooding begins in low-lying agricultural 
  land and woods.
* Flood history...this crest compares to a previous crest of 20.0 
  feet on Feb 13 2018.

&&

LAT...LON 3660 7898 3672 7902 3675 7884 3668 7879
                                      

$$

RAB
408 
WGUS81 KRNK 240943
FLSRNK
 
FLOOD STATEMENT 
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA 
443 AM EST Thu Jan 24 2019

...The Flood Warning continues for the following rivers in Virginia..
  Dan River at South Boston affecting Halifax County 


Around an inch to 1.5 inches of rain is expected across the Dan River
basin. This will bring the Dan River basin at South Boston into minor
flood by Friday afternoon.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Do not drive through flooded areas...the water may be much deeper 
than you think.

 Graphical forecast information is available on the internet at 
http://www.weather.gov/rnk (lower case). Click on 'rivers & lakes'.

 
 
The next scheduled statement will be issued by noon today.

&&

VAC083-241742-
/O.CON.KRNK.FL.W.0002.190125T1923Z-190127T1724Z/
/SBNV2.1.ER.190125T1923Z.190126T1200Z.190127T0524Z.NO/
443 AM EST Thu Jan 24 2019

the Flood Warning continues for
  the Dan River at South Boston.
* from tomorrow early afternoon until Sunday afternoon
* at 04AM Thursday the stage was 12.2 feet and steady.

* Flood stage is 19.0 feet.
* Forecast to rise above flood stage by Friday afternoon and 
  continue to rise to near 20.9 feet by Saturday morning. The river 
  will fall below flood stage by early Sunday morning.
* Impact...at 19.0 feet...Flooding begins in low-lying agricultural 
  land and woods.
* Flood history...this crest compares to a previous crest of 20.0 
  feet on Feb 13 2018.

&&

LAT...LON 3660 7898 3672 7902 3675 7884 3668 7879
                                      

$$
945 
WGUS81 KRNK 241401
FLSRNK
 
FLOOD STATEMENT 
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA 
901 AM EST Thu Jan 24 2019

...The Flood Warning continues for the following rivers in 
Virginia...
 
  Dan River at South Boston affecting Halifax County 


Rainfal of a half to close to 1.5 inches has fallen
across the Dan River basin since Wednesday night. 
This will create minor flooding at South Boston 
after midnight tonight.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Do not drive through flooded areas...the water may be much deeper 
than you think.

 Graphical forecast information is available on the internet at 
http://www.weather.gov/rnk (lower case). Click on 'rivers & lakes'.

 
 
The next scheduled statement will be issued by 5pm today.

&&

VAC083-242200-
/O.EXT.KRNK.FL.W.0002.190125T0600Z-190127T2151Z/
/SBNV2.1.ER.190125T0600Z.190126T0600Z.190127T0951Z.NO/
901 AM EST Thu Jan 24 2019

The Flood Warning continues for
  the Dan River at South Boston.
* from after midnight tomorrow until Sunday afternoon
* at 08AM Thursday the stage was 13.1 feet and rising.

* Flood stage is 19.0 feet.
* Forecast to rise above flood stage by after midnight tonight and 
  continue to rise to near 23.0 feet by early Saturday morning. The 
  river will fall below flood stage by Sunday morning.
* Flood history...this crest compares to a previous crest of 22.0 
  feet on Jan 25 2017.

&&

LAT...LON 3660 7898 3672 7902 3675 7884 3668 7879
                                      

$$
871 
WGUS81 KRNK 242048
FLSRNK
 
FLOOD STATEMENT 
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA 
348 PM EST Thu Jan 24 2019

...The Flood Warning continues for the following rivers in 
Virginia...
 
  Dan River at South Boston affecting Halifax County 


 ...Updated river level forecast. Rain has ended but the Dan at 
 South Boston continues to experience rises as greater volume of
 water upstream moves downriver. Level at South Boston is 
 expected to rise over flood stage late tonight and continue 
 rising to a crest of 23.8 feet Saturday morning.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Do not drive through flooded areas...the water may be much deeper 
than you think.

 Graphical forecast information is available on the internet at 
http://www.weather.gov/rnk (lower case). Click on 'rivers & lakes'.

 
 
The next scheduled statement will be issued this evening.

&&

VAC083-250447-
/O.EXT.KRNK.FL.W.0002.190125T0300Z-190128T0920Z/
/SBNV2.1.ER.190125T0300Z.190126T1200Z.190127T2120Z.NO/
348 PM EST Thu Jan 24 2019

The Flood Warning continues for
  the Dan River at South Boston.
* from tonight until late Sunday night
* at 03PM Thursday the stage was 16.3 feet.

* Flood stage is 19.0 feet.
* Forecast to rise above flood stage by tonight and continue to rise 
  to near 23.8 feet by Saturday morning. The river will fall below 
  flood stage by Sunday afternoon.
* Flood history...this crest compares to a previous crest of 24.3 
  feet on Dec 31 2018.

&&

LAT...LON 3660 7898 3672 7902 3675 7884 3668 7879
                                      

$$
309 
WGUS81 KRNK 250258
FLSRNK
 
FLOOD STATEMENT 
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA 
958 PM EST Thu Jan 24 2019

...The Flood Warning continues for the following rivers in 
Virginia...
 
  Dan River at South Boston affecting Halifax County. 

Minor flooding is forecast through early Sunday, the river forecast to 
crest early Saturday morning at near 22.6 feet.  


PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Do not drive through flooded areas...the water may be much deeper 
than you think.

 Graphical forecast information is available on the internet at 
http://www.weather.gov/rnk (lower case). Click on 'rivers & lakes'.

 
The next scheduled statement will be issued Friday morning.

&&

VAC083-251058-
/O.EXT.KRNK.FL.W.0002.190125T0346Z-190127T2235Z/
/SBNV2.1.ER.190125T0346Z.190126T1200Z.190127T1035Z.NO/
958 PM EST Thu Jan 24 2019

The Flood Warning continues for
  the Dan River at South Boston.
* from tonight until Sunday afternoon
* at 09PM Thursday the stage was 18.7 feet.

* Flood stage is 19.0 feet.
* Forecast to rise above flood stage overnight and continue to rise 
  to near 22.6 feet by Saturday morning. The river will fall below 
  flood stage by Sunday morning.
* Flood history...this crest compares to a previous crest of 21.6 
  feet on May 7 2017.

&&

LAT...LON 3660 7898 3672 7902 3675 7884 3668 7879
                                      

$$
539 
WGUS81 KRNK 251018
FLSRNK
 
FLOOD STATEMENT 
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA 
518 AM EST Fri Jan 25 2019

...The Flood Warning continues for the following rivers in 
Virginia...
 
  Dan River at South Boston affecting Halifax County 


Minor flooding is forecast through early Sunday.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Do not drive through flooded areas...the water may be much deeper 
than you think.

 Graphical forecast information is available on the internet at 
http://www.weather.gov/rnk (lower case). Click on 'rivers & lakes'.
 
The next scheduled statement will be issued by noon. 

&&

VAC083-251817-
/O.EXT.KRNK.FL.W.0002.000000T0000Z-190127T0945Z/
/SBNV2.1.ER.190125T0324Z.190126T0600Z.190126T2145Z.NO/
518 AM EST Fri Jan 25 2019

The Flood Warning continues for
  the Dan River at South Boston.
* until late Saturday night. 
* at 04AM Friday the stage was 20.0 feet.
* Flood stage is 19.0 feet.
* The river will continue rising to near 21.4 feet around midnight 
  tonight. The river will fall below flood stage Saturday afternoon.
* Flood history...this crest compares to a previous crest of 21.6 
  feet on May 7 2017.

&&

LAT...LON 3660 7898 3672 7902 3675 7884 3668 7879
                                      

$$
194 
WGUS81 KRNK 251525
FLSRNK
 
FLOOD STATEMENT 
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA 
1025 AM EST Fri Jan 25 2019

...The Flood Warning continues for the following rivers in 
Virginia...
 
  Dan River at South Boston affecting Halifax County 


 Runoff water from Thursday's rainfall will continue to
 result in minor flooding along the Dan River around South Boston.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Do not drive through flooded areas...the water may be much deeper 
than you think.

Graphical forecast information is available on the internet at 
http://www.weather.gov/rnk. Click on 'rivers & lakes'.
 
The next scheduled statement will be issued Friday evening.

&&

VAC083-252324-
/O.EXT.KRNK.FL.W.0002.000000T0000Z-190127T0837Z/
/SBNV2.1.ER.190125T0324Z.190126T0600Z.190126T2037Z.NO/
1025 AM EST Fri Jan 25 2019

The Flood Warning continues for
  the Dan River at South Boston.
* until late Saturday night. 
* at 10 AM EST Friday the stage was 20.7 feet...and rising.
* Flood stage is 19.0 feet. Moderate Flood stage is 25.0 feet.
* The river will continue rising and crest near 21.4 feet after
  12 AM EST Saturday morning. The river is then forecast to fall
  below flood stage late Saturday afternoon or early Saturday evening.
* Flood history...this crest compares to a previous crest of 21.6 
  feet on May 7 2017.

&&

LAT...LON 3660 7898 3672 7902 3675 7884 3668 7879                                     

$$

RAB
772 
WGUS81 KRNK 252323
FLSRNK
 
FLOOD STATEMENT 
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA 
623 PM EST Fri Jan 25 2019

...The Flood Warning continues for the following rivers in 
Virginia...
 
  Dan River at South Boston affecting Halifax County 

 Runoff water from Thursday's rainfall will continue to
 result in minor flooding along the Dan River around South Boston.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Do not drive through flooded areas...the water may be much deeper 
than you think.

 Graphical forecast information is available on the internet at 
http://www.weather.gov/rnk (lower case). Click on 'rivers & lakes'.
 
The next scheduled statement will be issued early Saturday morning.

&&

VAC083-260723-
/O.EXT.KRNK.FL.W.0002.000000T0000Z-190127T0807Z/
/SBNV2.1.ER.190125T0324Z.190126T0000Z.190126T2007Z.NO/
623 PM EST Fri Jan 25 2019

The Flood Warning continues for
  the Dan River at South Boston.
* until late Saturday night. 
* at 06PM Friday the stage was 21.5 feet.
* Flood stage is 19.0 feet.
* The river is near crest and will begin falling overnight. 
  The river will fall below flood stage tomorrow afternoon.
* Flood history...this crest compares to a previous crest of 21.6 
  feet on May 7 2017.

&&

LAT...LON 3660 7898 3672 7902 3675 7884 3668 7879
                                      

$$
575 
WGUS81 KRNK 260908
FLSRNK
 
FLOOD STATEMENT 
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA 
408 AM EST Sat Jan 26 2019

...The Flood Warning continues for the following rivers in 
Virginia...
 
  Dan River at South Boston affecting Halifax County 

Runoff from Thursday's rainfall will continue to
result in minor flooding along the Dan River at South Boston today.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Do not drive through flooded areas...the water may be much deeper 
than you think.

 Graphical forecast information is available on the internet at 
http://www.weather.gov/rnk (lower case). Click on 'rivers & lakes'.
 
The next scheduled statement will be issued by noon.

&&

VAC083-261707-
/O.EXT.KRNK.FL.W.0002.000000T0000Z-190127T1240Z/
/SBNV2.1.ER.190125T0324Z.190126T0630Z.190127T0040Z.NO/
408 AM EST Sat Jan 26 2019

The Flood Warning continues for
  the Dan River at South Boston.
* until Saturday night. 
* at 03AM Saturday the stage was 21.8 feet and falling.

* Flood stage is 19.0 feet.
* The river will continue to fall to below flood stage by this 
  evening.
* Flood history...this crest of 21.8 feet compares to a previous crest of 21.6 
  feet on May 7 2017.

&&

LAT...LON 3660 7898 3672 7902 3675 7884 3668 7879
                                      

$$
135 
WGUS81 KRNK 261704
FLSRNK
 
FLOOD STATEMENT 
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA 
1204 PM EST Sat Jan 26 2019

...The Flood Warning continues for the following rivers in 
Virginia...
 
  Dan River at South Boston affecting Halifax County 


The Dan River at South Boston is falling and should
dip below flood stage by early this evening.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Do not drive through flooded areas...the water may be much deeper 
than you think.

 Graphical forecast information is available on the internet at 
http://www.weather.gov/rnk (lower case). Click on 'rivers & lakes'.

 
 
The next scheduled statement will be issued after the river
falls below flood stage or by 9pm this evening.

&&

VAC083-270104-
/O.EXT.KRNK.FL.W.0002.000000T0000Z-190127T1035Z/
/SBNV2.1.ER.190125T0324Z.190126T0630Z.190126T2235Z.NO/
1204 PM EST Sat Jan 26 2019

The Flood Warning continues for
  the Dan River at South Boston.
* until late tonight. 
* at 11AM Saturday the stage was 20.5 feet and falling.

* Flood stage is 19.0 feet.
* The river will continue to fall to below flood stage by late this 
  afternoon.
* Impact...at 19.0 feet...Flooding begins in low-lying agricultural 
  land and woods.
* Flood history...this crest compares to a previous crest of 20.0 
  feet on Feb 13 2018.

&&

LAT...LON 3660 7898 3672 7902 3675 7884 3668 7879
                                      

$$
927 
WGUS81 KRNK 262127
FLSRNK
 
FLOOD STATEMENT 
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA 
427 PM EST Sat Jan 26 2019

...The Flood Warning is cancelled for the following rivers
in Virginia...
 
  Dan River at South Boston affecting Halifax County
 

 ...River level at the Dan River at South Boston has fallen below flood
 stage category. Further recession in river level is expected. Therefore, 
 the Flood Warning for the Dan River at South Boston will be cancelled.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Do not drive through flooded areas...the water may be much deeper 
than you think.

 Graphical forecast information is available on the internet at 
http://www.weather.gov/rnk (lower case). Click on 'rivers & lakes'.

 
 

&&

VAC083-262157-
/O.CAN.KRNK.FL.W.0002.000000T0000Z-190127T1035Z/
/SBNV2.1.ER.190125T0324Z.190126T0630Z.190126T2038Z.NO/
427 PM EST Sat Jan 26 2019

the Flood Warning is cancelled for
  the Dan River at South Boston.
* until late tonight. 
* at 04PM Saturday the stage was 18.9 feet.

* Flood stage is 19.0 feet.
* Impact...at 19.0 feet...Flooding begins in low-lying agricultural 
  land and woods.
* Flood history...this crest compares to a previous crest of 19.4 
  feet on Dec 31 2015.

&&

LAT...LON 3660 7898 3672 7902 3675 7884 3668 7879
                                      

$$

Loconto

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before this river flood warning went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Blacksburg, VA wrote its last area forecast discussion before this river flood warning went out at Jan 23, 9:43 AM EST, 20 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, Jan 23, 9:43 AM EST, 20 minutes before
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Blacksburg VA
943 AM EST Wed Jan 23 2019

.SYNOPSIS...
A low pressure system will cross the Ohio Valley today and will
push a cold front through the Mid Atlantic region Thursday.
This front will be followed by a reinforcing cold front Thursday
night. The area will continue within a pattern that features
quick moving, but weak, disturbances into early next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 942 AM EST Wednesday...Tale of two air masses really this
morning, as much of our southwestern mountain counties (roughly
from the New River Valley southwest) are running in the 40s.
East of the Blue Ridge, where cold high pressure wedge from the
last couple days has kept temperatures closer to the freezing
mark, and dewpoints commonly in the teens across this area are
resulting in sub- freezing wet-bulb temps. Recovery in
temperatures is expected to be slow given that diurnal warming
will be quite low.

Will maintain the Winter Weather Advisory until its noon
expiration time just based on the potential for temperatures to
run close to wet bulb temperatures at least through that time,
supporting a threat for either freezing rain or freezing drizzle.
Precip rates are light - this morning's 12z RNK/GSO soundings
suggest drizzle as moisture layer is shallow - but there may
still be some very light ice accretion until wet- bulb
temperatures warm. Have also added some drizzle from the New
River Valley eastward based on this. Precip amounts should be
quite light until the cold front approaches.

No changes to high temps today. Overall expecting a rather gray,
dreary day today as wedge remains pretty well entrenched across
much of the area today. Best chance for milder temperatures in
the 40s is near and south of the NRV.

Previous discussion from 300 AM Wednesday...

Winter Weather Advisory remains in effect for the mountains and
foothills of North Carolina ans Virginia.

Sharp upper trough over the central United States move eat today and
reaches the Mid Atlantic region tonight with lower 500MB heights.
Strongest positive vorticity advection and upper divergence will be
from 00Z/7PM-06Z/1AM tonight. Temperatures at 850MB were already
warming and will be well above freezing by 12Z/7AM. Bufkit forecast
soundings show little to no potential for ice crystal growth in the
lower cloud layers this morning. So precipitation type will be
either rain or freezing rain. The warm front lifts north through
North Carolina Virginia this evening with temperatures
continuing to rise after dark. The surface cold front comes
through overnight. Better cold air advection is delayed until
after the 850MB front passes

Short range hourly guidance has temperatures rising into the
40s this morning. However, surface dewpoints are starting mainly
in the single digits and teens. Moisture was making some
eastern progress with the dew point at Bluefield rising from 9
to 20 in three hours. Light precipitation returns had developed
in the northern North Carolina and southern Virginia foothills.
This will aide in saturating the air mass.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
As of 300 AM EST Wednesday...

A wave of low pressure will lift northward along the frontal
boundary Thursday. By Thursday evening, the front will push off
the East Coast and be moving out into the Atlantic ocean
Thursday night into Friday. High pressure will build east out of
the Ohio Valley Friday into Friday night.

The cold air will catch the precipitation in the west and transition
the rain showers to snow showers Thursday. While in the east, west
to northwest winds will downslope and dry out the region. The rain
will end before temperatures fall below freezing. For PTYPE used a
top_down ensemble tool with NAM for focus on temperature profiles.
Increased winds behind the front Thursday with healthy pressure
rises, and 40 knot 850 mb jet rotating across the area. At this
time, looks like winds will remain below wind advisory levels.

High temperatures on Thursday will range from the mid 30s in the
northwest mountains of Greenbrier County to the mid 50s in the
piedmont. With northwest flow, shower showers and snow flurries will
continue in the western mountains Thursday night. Low temperatures
Thursday night will vary from around 10 degrees in the mountains to
the upper 20s in the piedmont. Snow accumulations in the western
mountains will range from coating to around 2 inches in western
Greenbrier county in southeast West Virginia.

A few snow flurries may linger in the western upslope areas Friday
morning. Otherwise, plenty of sunshine will be the rule Friday
afternoon. High temperatures on Friday will generally be from the
mid teens in the west to the lower 40s in the east. It will be cold
Friday night with readings from the single digits in the mountains
to around 20 degrees in the piedmont.

Moderate to High confidence in forecast.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 355 PM EST Tuesday...

During this portion of the forecast, a deep upper low will
persist across eastern Canada. Climatologically this is a cold
pattern for the eastern U.S. Weaker troughs of low pressure and
their associated cold fronts will spiral into and across our
region in a clipper-like fashion. Timing and impact of these
features has not had model run- to-run consistency. Also, their
interaction, if any, with southern stream lows/troughs has not
been consistent, thus adding to greater uncertainty and lower
confidence farther in the latter portion of our forecast. One is
slated to cross the area as early as Friday and another over
the weekend, with yet another one early next week. Moisture is
questionable, especially with the first couple of these. Will
keep pops in the low end range of 20-30 and generally confine to
the western slopes which the persistent westerly flow favors.

If we include the potential for a southern stream low tracking
along the Gulf Coast to head northeast near or just east of the
east coast of the U.S. Sunday into Monday as both the Canadian
and European solutions offer, then precipitation coverage across
the Piedmont region will be greater, with a challenging
p-type forecast given vastly different forecasts of the low
level temperature profile across this region during this time
frame.

Temperatures will remain mostly below normal through the period
with the persistent anticyclonic northwest flow. Several
opportunities for lows to drop into the teens.

/Confidence in Forecast Parameters/
Temperatures - Moderate to High,
Precipitation Chances - Moderate,
Winds - Moderate to High.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 645 AM EST Wednesday...

Ceilings had to lowered to IFR and MVFR across southwest
Virginia, northwest North Carolina and southeast West Virginia.
Patchy light rain and drizzle were over the mountains and
foothills with isolated MVFR visibilities. Ceilings will
continue to drop throughout the day. By 00Z, high confidence of
widespread LIFR/IFR with a large swath of moderate to heavy rain
ahead of an approaching cold front.

Surface winds will generally be light, but the low level flow
just off the surface will create some LLWS today and tonight.
Models were in good agreement with the timing of the front which
will bring the winds around to the west with increasing wind
speeds.

Confidence in timing of the precipitation is above average.
Confidence in timing of the IFR and lower ceilings is below
average.
Confidence is average for all other elements.

Extended Aviation Discussion...

Winds remain gusty from the northwest on Thursday into early
Friday morning, especially across the mountains. There also will
be isolated to scattered snow showers across parts of southeast
West Virginia. The gusts and snow showers will come to an end
by mid-day Friday. Conditions will be mainly VFR during this
time period.

VFR conditions will continue into Saturday.

A weak clipper system may bring isolated snow showers to
southeast West Virginia on Sunday along with patchy sub-VFR
conditions. However, the vast majority of the forecast region
will remain VFR.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
As of 525 AM EST Wednesday...

A Flood Watch has been issued along the Blue Ridge for tonight
into Thursday morning. While rainfall rates are not expected to
exceed Flash Flood Guidance, the ground was still saturated from
the rain last weekend. There will be a solid 12 hour period of
moderate to heavy rain with 1 to 2 inches expected by late
Thursday morning. Unlike the rain last weekend, now the ground
is frozen and runoff will be more efficient.

There will also be rises on mainstem rivers, including the
Greenbrier, Roanoke and Dan Rivers. Minor flooding is possible
at South Boston on the Dan River by Friday. Tributaries in these
river basins may also see a decent rise as the rain runs off
from the mountains into the main stem channels.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...Flood Watch from this evening through Thursday morning for
     VAZ012>020-022>024-032>035-043.
     Winter Weather Advisory until noon EST today for VAZ015>017-
     032-043.
NC...Flood Watch from this evening through Thursday morning for
     NCZ001>004-018>020.
     Winter Weather Advisory until noon EST today for NCZ001>005-
     018>020.
WV...None.

&&

SYNOPSIS...AMS/DS
NEAR TERM...AL/AMS
SHORT TERM...KK/RAB
LONG TERM...RAB
AVIATION...AMS/MBS
HYDROLOGY...AMS
Hazardous weather outlook, Jan 23, 5:50 AM EST, 4 hours 13 minutes before
Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Blacksburg VA
550 AM EST Wed Jan 23 2019

NCZ001>004-018>020-VAZ015>017-032-043-241100-
Ashe-Alleghany NC-Surry-Stokes-Watauga-Wilkes-Yadkin-Grayson-Carroll-
Floyd-Patrick-Henry-
550 AM EST Wed Jan 23 2019

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON EST TODAY...
...FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY
MORNING...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for north central North Carolina,
northwest North Carolina, south central Virginia and southwest
Virginia.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Winter Weather Advisory.
   Flood Watch.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Flood Watch.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

NCZ005-241100-
Rockingham-
550 AM EST Wed Jan 23 2019

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON EST TODAY...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for north central North Carolina.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Winter Weather Advisory.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.

Additionally, heavy rain during Wednesday night and early Thursday
morning could result in minor flooding.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

VAZ012>014-018>020-022>024-033>035-241100-
Wythe-Pulaski-Montgomery-Craig-Alleghany VA-Bath-Roanoke-Botetourt-
Rockbridge-Franklin-Bedford-Amherst-
550 AM EST Wed Jan 23 2019

...FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY
MORNING...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central Virginia, south
central Virginia, southwest Virginia and west central Virginia.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Flood Watch.

Pockets of light freezing rain or freezing drizzle may produce some
isolated slick spots on roads, parking lots, and sidewalks this
morning.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Flood Watch.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

NCZ006-VAZ044>047-058-059-241100-
Caswell-Pittsylvania-Campbell-Appomattox-Buckingham-Halifax-
Charlotte-
550 AM EST Wed Jan 23 2019

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for north central North Carolina,
central Virginia and south central Virginia.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Pockets of light freezing rain or freezing drizzle may produce some
isolated slick spots on roads, parking lots, and sidewalks this
morning.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

VAZ007-009>011-WVZ042>044-507-508-241100-
Tazewell-Smyth-Bland-Giles-Mercer-Summers-Monroe-Eastern Greenbrier-
Western Greenbrier-
550 AM EST Wed Jan 23 2019

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for southwest Virginia and
southeast West Virginia.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Pockets of light freezing rain or freezing drizzle may produce some
isolated slick spots on roads, parking lots, and sidewalks this
morning.

The wind may gust up to 45 mph at the highest ridge tops into this
evening.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

In the hours before

Special weather statement, Jan 23, 4:48 AM EST, 5 hours 15 minutes before
Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Blacksburg VA
448 AM EST Wed Jan 23 2019

NCZ006-VAZ011>014-018>020-022>024-033>035-044>047-058-059-WVZ043-
044-507-508-231500-
Caswell-Giles-Wythe-Pulaski-Montgomery-Craig-Alleghany VA-Bath-
Roanoke-Botetourt-Rockbridge-Franklin-Bedford-Amherst-
Pittsylvania-Campbell-Appomattox-Buckingham-Halifax-Charlotte-
Summers-Monroe-Eastern Greenbrier-Western Greenbrier-
Including the cities of Yanceyville, Pearisburg, Wytheville,
Radford, Pulaski, Blacksburg, New Castle, Clifton Forge,
Covington, Hot Springs, Roanoke, Salem, Fincastle, Lexington,
Buena Vista, Rocky Mount, Bedford, Amherst, Danville, Lynchburg,
Appomattox, South Boston, Keysville, Hinton, Hix, Union,
Lewisburg, White Sulphur Springs, Alderson, Quinwood, Duo,
and Rainelle
448 AM EST Wed Jan 23 2019

...Light Freezing Rain Possible This Morning...

Areas of light rain and drizzle are likely across southwest
Virginia, northwest North Carolina and southeast West Virginia
this morning. Temperatures will be near freezing through this
morning and pavement temperatures remain cold due to the recent
cold air. Therefore, the rain and drizzle may freeze on some
surfaces.

If you plan on traveling this morning, be aware of the potential
for slippery spots, especially on bridges and overpassed. Plan
ahead by allowing for extra travel time.

Temperatures will rise above freezing across much of the region by
10AM. A few spots along the Blue Ridge north of Roanoke may stay
close to freezing until noon.

The office that day

Everything else NWS Blacksburg, VA issued on the same UTC day.

IssuedProductOfficeCountiesLasted
Jan 23, 5:22 AM ESTFlood WatchRNKAlleghany, Amherst, Bath, Bedford, Botetourt, Carroll and 19 more29 hr
Jan 23, 11:36 AM ESTWind AdvisoryRNKBland, Grayson, Smyth, Tazewell, Wythe7 hr

Nearby

River Flood Warnings in Virginia, 2019Every river flood warning in 2019

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive; the gauge from the NWS water service and the USGS.