High Wind Warning 1, NWS Blacksburg, VA

018 
WWUS71 KRNK 051727
NPWRNK

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Blacksburg VA
1227 PM EST Sat Jan 5 2019

...Strong and Gusty Northwest Winds Expected Today...

.A strong upper-level low has moved east of the area and will move
off the Virginia coast by this evening. In the wake of this low, strong
and gusty northwest winds will continue into this evening.
The ground remains wet from all of the recent and repeated 
rainfall. Thus, shallow and poorly rooted trees could be uprooted 
resulting in scattered power outages. High profile vehicles will 
want to exercise caution, especially while traveling at higher 
elevations in the mountains.

NCZ001-002-018-VAZ015>017-022-060000-
/O.CAN.KRNK.HW.W.0001.000000T0000Z-190106T0000Z/
/O.EXA.KRNK.WI.Y.0001.000000T0000Z-190106T0000Z/
Ashe-Alleghany NC-Watauga-Grayson-Carroll-Floyd-Roanoke-
Including the cities of West Jefferson, Sparta, Boone, 
Independence, Whitetop, Troutdale, Volney, Galax, Floyd, Roanoke,
and Salem
1227 PM EST Sat Jan 5 2019

...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING...
...HIGH WIND WARNING HAS BEEN DOWNGRADED TO AN ADVISORY...

The National Weather Service in Blacksburg has issued a Wind
Advisory, which is in effect until 7 PM EST this evening. The
High Wind Warning has been downgraded to a Wind Advisory.

* Winds...West 20 to 30 mph with gusts up to 45 mph.

* Timing...Into this evening.

* Impacts...Some downed trees and power lines possible. Difficult
  driving conditions for high profile vehicles.

* Locations...Parts of southwest Virginia, including the Mountain
  Empire, the Roanoke Valley, and the Foothills of the Blue Ridge
  from near Fancy Gap to Bent Mountain.

* Hazards...Strong and gusty northwest winds.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Winds of these magnitudes may cause minor property damage without
extra precautions. Motorists in high profile vehicles should use 
extra caution until the winds subside.

&&

$$

VAZ007-009>012-051830-
/O.CAN.KRNK.WI.Y.0001.000000T0000Z-190106T0000Z/
Tazewell-Smyth-Bland-Giles-Wythe-
Including the cities of Tazewell, Marion, Bland, Pearisburg, 
and Wytheville
1227 PM EST Sat Jan 5 2019

...WIND ADVISORY IS CANCELLED...

The National Weather Service in Blacksburg has cancelled the Wind
Advisory.

Winds have dropped below advisory criteria, but will remain breezy
through the afternoon.

$$

NCZ003-019-VAZ013-014-018>020-023-024-032>035-060000-
/O.CON.KRNK.WI.Y.0001.000000T0000Z-190106T0000Z/
Surry-Wilkes-Pulaski-Montgomery-Craig-Alleghany VA-Bath-Botetourt-
Rockbridge-Patrick-Franklin-Bedford-Amherst-
Including the cities of Dobson, Wilkesboro, Radford, Pulaski, 
Blacksburg, New Castle, Clifton Forge, Covington, Hot Springs, 
Fincastle, Lexington, Buena Vista, Stuart, Rocky Mount, Bedford, 
and Amherst
1227 PM EST Sat Jan 5 2019

...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING...

* Winds...West 15 to 25 mph with gusts up to 45 mph.

* Timing...Into this evening.

* Impacts...Some downed trees and power lines possible. Difficult
  driving conditions for high profile vehicles.

* Locations...Near and adjacent to the Blue Ridge from 
  Wilkesboro, to Blacksburg/Christiansburg, to Lexington, to Hot 
  Springs, northward to the West Virginia/Virginia border.

* Hazards...Strong and gusty northwest winds.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Winds of these magnitudes may cause minor property damage without
extra precautions. Motorists in high profile vehicles should use 
extra caution until the winds subside.

&&

$$
RCS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Blacksburg VA
423 AM EST Sat Jan 5 2019

.SYNOPSIS...
A strong upper-level low pressure area and associated surface
low pressure system will track east-northeast today and will
located off the northern Mid-Atlantic coast by Sunday morning.
Weak high pressure will build into the area for Sunday and
continue until a weak cold front arrives Monday afternoon
bringing low chances for rain. High pressure will then become
established for the mid and later part of the week. Mostly a dry
week ahead with seasonable to slightly above normal
temperatures.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 405 AM EST Saturday...

The vertically stacked low that has brought a variety of
inclement weather to the southern and eastern U.S. over the past
few days in the form of winter weather as well as thunderstorms
and widespread rainfall depending on the area and location, will
move quickly northeast of the area today and should be off the
northern Mid-Atlantic coast by Sunday morning. Weak high
pressure will build into the area on Sunday in the wake of the
low pressure area.

Rain associated with the front side of the upper low have moved
well northeast of the forecast area. Wrap around deformation
zone precipitation was evident from northeast TN through eastern
KY, much of WV west of the Alleghany front, and then north into
western PA. This area of precipitation will gradually diminish
from the south and pull further north into MD/PA during the
afternoon. No sigificant cold air was tapped with this southern
stream cutoff upper low, thus temperatures early this morning
are largely above freezing, and in many cases still in the 40s.
Thus, the precipitation is largely falling as rain. As we move
toward daybreak, some of the higher elevations will see a mix of
rain and snow as the cold pocket aloft drifts over the region.
This will only last for a few hours straddling sunrise. Minor
snow accumulations are possible at the higher elevations,
mainly above 3000 ft., but the ground is mostly too warm for
much accumulation. Best chance of seeing the ground white for a
short time would be in northwest Greenbrier where an inch of
accumulation will be possible, with less accumulations scattered
through the mountains southward toward Bluefield, Bland,
Jefferson, and Boone.

The primary concern today will be wind. A tight pressure
gradient will develop on the back side of the departing low
pressure area resulting in west to northwest winds of 15-30 mph
with gusts 45-50 mph, especially at higher elevations, mainly
along the Blue ridge and adjacent areas. Have continued the
earlier issued Wind Advisory from Watauga NC to Grayson VA and
have expanded somewhat further northeast to just northeast of
Roanoke, where several models are showing the potential for
40+kt wind gusts by late morning into the afternoon.

Temperatures will remain above normal and with increasing
amounts of sunshine and downslope winds, be warmer, especially
east of the Blue Ridge and across the Piedmont than it was with
the clouds and rain Friday. Again the post-frontal air mass is
of continental Pacific origin, not Canadian or Arctic as that
remains locked up in Canada for now. Look for high temperatures
today in the 40s mountains, otherwise 50s west to 60s east. Lows
tonight will be mostly above freezing once again ranging from
the 30s west to the 40s east. These temperatures remain about
10-15 degrees above seasonal normals.

/Confidence in Forecast Parameters/
Temperatures - Moderate to High,
Probabilities of Precipitation - Moderate,
Winds - Moderate to High.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 300 AM EST Saturday...

The upper level pattern will remain progressive with a large ridge
building over the eastern part of the country as we close out the
weekend. This will keep the weather across the Appalachians and central
mid Atlantic region quiet but a bit breezy on Sunday with temperatures
well above normal. Clouds will then be on the increase by Monday as
surface high pressure slides to our east and develops a bit of a wedge
with winds becoming southeasterly. Temperatures in the wedge Monday
will be a bit cooler though still above normal.

Once the upper ridge axis moves to our east Monday night a large closed
low will move into New England and eastern Canada by Wednesday morning,
opening the door to our first shot of cold air in a while. An initial
cold front will move through Monday night with scattered showers
followed by upslope showers west of the Blue Ridge on Tuesday.
Temperatures Tuesday will surge considerably with readings in the
middle 60s east of the Blue Ridge and in the middle/upper 50s to the
west.

A more significant cold front will move through late Tuesday/Tuesday
night, marking the leading edge of much colder air moving down from
Canada. Not a lot in the way of deep moisture to work with, so it looks
like scattered showers will be mostly confined to west of the Blue
Ridge, followed by some upslope snow showers as the colder air moves in.
Expect winds to be blustery especially Tuesday night as the colder air
moves in behind the front.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 1045 AM EST Friday...

Upslope snow showers will persist west of the Blue Ridge Wednesday
through Wednesday night, though no significant accumulation is
expected. Otherwise, expect a mainly dry forecast this period. 5h
trough will deepen over the Great Lakes to Northeast down into the Mid-
Atlantic. A northwest flow will keep our temps closer to normal. By
Thursday, the 5h trough advances offshore and heights build across the
Ohio/TN Valleys with surface high pressure working into our area. Will
stay dry Thursday afternoon into Friday with temps close to normal for
highs and near or above normal for lows.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 1130 PM EST Friday...

Poor flying conditions will continue into the early morning
hours of Saturday as a strong upper level low crosses the region
allowing for the low level wedge to finally fade overnight.
Associated bands of showers will also accompany this system with
light rain and drizzle lingering east of the mountains making
for MVFR to IFR conditions until late. However some improvement
will likely occur east of the Blue Ridge by daybreak as
downsloping northwest winds arrive, while the far west lingers
with low clouds and showers espcly along the KBLF-KLWB corridor
through morning.

The closed low moves east of the area Saturday morning.
Deepening northwest flow along with a 40-50 kt cross- barrier
jet will bring windy conditions to the area through the day
Saturday. The strongest winds will occur between 12Z-18Z
Saturday mainly over the mountains where gusts up to 40 kts are
possible. This downsloping trajectory should allow for added clearing
east of the mountains during the morning and over the west in
the afternoon. However models suggest that low clouds may return
Saturday night over the far western mountains where MVFR cigs
could occur. Otherwise VFR under diminishing winds Saturday
night as high pressure builds in from the northwest.

Extended Aviation Discussion...

High pressure to the north should maintain overall VFR
conditions Sunday into Monday.

Another weak front may bring MVFR in lower cigs and showers
across the mountains later Monday night into early Tuesday,
followed by improving conditions on gusty westerly winds Tuesday
afternoon. VFR should prevail out east with lack of much
moisture east of the mountains on Tuesday. Northwest flow will
follow a secondary front by Wednesday with gusty northwest winds
and upslope sub-VFR cigs possible western mountain locations
for mid week.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...Wind Advisory from 8 AM this morning to 7 PM EST this evening
     for VAZ009-012-016-017-022-023-032.
     Wind Advisory until 7 PM EST this evening for VAZ015.
NC...Wind Advisory until 7 PM EST this evening for NCZ001-002-018.
WV...None.

&&

SYNOPSIS...RAB
NEAR TERM...RAB
SHORT TERM...MBS
LONG TERM...MBS/WP
AVIATION...JH/RAB/RCS

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Blacksburg VA
432 AM EST Sat Jan 5 2019

NCZ001-002-018-VAZ015-061100-
Ashe-Alleghany NC-Watauga-Grayson-
432 AM EST Sat Jan 5 2019

...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for northwest North Carolina and
southwest Virginia.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Wind Advisory.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday.

There is a low probability for widespread hazardous weather.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

VAZ009-012-016-017-022-023-061100-
Smyth-Wythe-Carroll-Floyd-Roanoke-Botetourt-
432 AM EST Sat Jan 5 2019

...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 8 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 PM EST THIS
EVENING...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for southwest Virginia and west
central Virginia.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Wind Advisory.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday.

There is a low probability for widespread hazardous weather.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

NCZ003-019-VAZ007-010-011-013-014-018>020-024-033>035-WVZ042>044-507-
508-061100-
Surry-Wilkes-Tazewell-Bland-Giles-Pulaski-Montgomery-Craig-
Alleghany VA-Bath-Rockbridge-Franklin-Bedford-Amherst-Mercer-Summers-
Monroe-Eastern Greenbrier-Western Greenbrier-
432 AM EST Sat Jan 5 2019

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for north central North Carolina,
northwest North Carolina, central Virginia, south central Virginia,
southwest Virginia, west central Virginia and southeast West
Virginia.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Gusty northwest winds could be near advisory criteria at times today,
especially across the higher elevations.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday.

There is a low probability for widespread hazardous weather.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

VAZ032-061100-
Patrick-
432 AM EST Sat Jan 5 2019

...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 8 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 PM EST THIS
EVENING...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for southwest Virginia.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Wind Advisory.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday.

There is a low probability for widespread hazardous weather.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

NCZ004>006-020-VAZ043>047-058-059-061100-
Stokes-Rockingham-Caswell-Yadkin-Henry-Pittsylvania-Campbell-
Appomattox-Buckingham-Halifax-Charlotte-
432 AM EST Sat Jan 5 2019

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for north central North Carolina,
northwest North Carolina, central Virginia and south central
Virginia.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

RAB