Tornado Warning 8, NWS Charleston, WV

834 
WWUS51 KRLX 280450
SVSRLX

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Charleston WV
1250 AM EDT Tue May 28 2019

OHC115-127-280515-
/O.CON.KRLX.TO.W.0008.000000T0000Z-190528T0515Z/
Perry OH-Morgan OH-
1250 AM EDT Tue May 28 2019

...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 115 AM EDT FOR
NORTHEASTERN PERRY AND NORTHWESTERN MORGAN COUNTIES...
    
At 1249 AM EDT, a severe thunderstorm capable of producing a tornado 
was located near Perry State Forest, moving east at 40 mph. Spotters 
have observed rotation with this storm.

HAZARD...Tornado and quarter size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated rotation.

IMPACT...Flying debris will be dangerous to those caught without 
         shelter. Mobile homes will be damaged or destroyed. Damage 
         to roofs, windows, and vehicles will occur.  Tree damage is 
         likely.

This tornadic thunderstorm will remain over mainly rural areas of
northeastern Perry and northwestern Morgan Counties, including the
following locations... Crooksville.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TAKE COVER NOW! Move to a basement or an interior room on the lowest
floor of a sturdy building. Avoid windows. If you are outdoors, in a
mobile home, or in a vehicle, move to the closest substantial shelter
and protect yourself from flying debris.

&&

LAT...LON 3982 8217 3982 8208 3977 8208 3976 8196
      3966 8193 3964 8225 3981 8230 3984 8223
      3986 8217
TIME...MOT...LOC 0449Z 260DEG 33KT 3981 8211 

TORNADO...RADAR INDICATED
HAIL...1.00IN

$$

26

713 
WWUS51 KRLX 280507
SVSRLX

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Charleston WV
107 AM EDT Tue May 28 2019

OHC115-127-280517-
/O.EXP.KRLX.TO.W.0008.000000T0000Z-190528T0515Z/
Perry OH-Morgan OH-
107 AM EDT Tue May 28 2019

...THE TORNADO WARNING FOR NORTHEASTERN PERRY AND NORTHWESTERN MORGAN
COUNTIES WILL EXPIRE AT 115 AM EDT...
        
The storm which prompted the warning has moved out of the area.
Therefore, the warning will be allowed to expire.

A Tornado Watch remains in effect until 400 AM EDT for southeastern
Ohio.

LAT...LON 3982 8217 3982 8208 3977 8208 3976 8196
      3966 8193 3964 8225 3981 8230 3984 8223
      3986 8217
TIME...MOT...LOC 0507Z 260DEG 33KT 3984 8192 

$$

26

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Charleston WV
1212 AM EDT Tue May 28 2019

.SYNOPSIS...
Weather disturbance brings storms across the north tonight. Hot
for midweek. Next cold front late week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
As of 930 PM Monday...

Raised pops across parts of southeast Ohio this evening,
particularly Perry, Morgan and Athens counties based on current
radar trends, and path estimates of convection hitting northern
most Ohio counties in the next few hours...after midnight.
Damaging winds are possible tonight across these areas. SPC has
added parts of southeast Ohio zones to a slight risk for
tonight.

As of 615 PM Monday...

Current forecast is on track and no updates necessary at this
moment. Boundary is starting to move north through the area, but
at this time, convection has been largely confined across
western Ohio. Will maintain the slight chance pops. Still
looking at a complex developing and moving across Ohio generally
after midnight as shortwave energy moves across the Great Lakes,
with strong damaging winds possible as strong 50-60 kt llj
forms across the area. Best chances still look to lie along and
north of I-70, sparing much of the CWA, but will monitor.

As of 153 PM Monday...

Best moisture depth as of early afternoon is located across the
southern and western CWA, behind a quasi-hard-to-delineate warm
front. Isolated showers and thunderstorms may occur through
early evening across the aforementioned area as a weak mid
level disturbance advects east, but most areas should remain
dry.

Overnight, the warm front should shift northeast across the
area. At the same time, a rather potent H5 vort max is prog to
advect SE with a cluster of convection/MCS moving ESE across N
IN and N OH. How far south and east this convection makes it is
a little uncertain, but the northern fringe of the CWA may be
impacted overnight. As such, I have a gradient of chance POPs
across the north to nil POPs farther south. An isolated strong
wind gust may occur with the convection tonight, but an overall
weakening trend should limit the better strong storm potential.

Aforementioned vort max will exit the region around sunrise
Tuesday with a period of DNVA and associated subsidence
resulting in clearing skies. With rising heights and
strengthening low level WAA, afternoon highs should be much
warmer than today's values. Have gone a little on the lower side
of guidance for max temps Tuesday, given the higher soil
moisture across the region. Regardless, it will still feel hot
and humid Tuesday afternoon.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
As of 225 PM Monday...

Lingering evening convection across northern parts of the CWA
Tuesday evening will shift north overnight as the baroclinic
zone retreats. A mid level wave passes just to the north on
Wednesday, but close enough for mainly scattered afternoon
convection. This scenario repeats itself Thursday but with a
stronger system and frontal passage, as the upper trof lifts
into the Northeast.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 253 PM Monday...

The trof over the Northeast will linger through the weekend,
with a general northwest flow regime across the area. This will
make the region susceptible to disturbances traversing the back
side of the trof with once such system slated for late Sunday.
Otherwise, a somewhat cooler airmass can be expected, though
likely slightly above normal.

&&

.AVIATION /04Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 720 PM Monday...

A thunderstorm complex is expected to form and trek across parts
of southeast Ohio and north central WV generally after 04Z.
Although most TAF sites should remain dry, due to uncertainty,
thunderstorms cannot be completely ruled out between 04-12Z at
sites KPKB, KCKB or KEKN. Expect brief IFR conditions in any
storms, along with strong damaging wind gusts. All other TAF
sites projected to remain VFR with generally light surface winds
for the night.

After 15Z, winds will become gusty from a mainly westerly to
west-southwesterly direction, with sustained winds in the teens
and gusts in the lower to mid 20 kts, generally becoming light
after 23Z.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium at KPKB, KCKB and KEKN. High
elsewhere.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Still uncertainty in exact path of forecast
convective complex overnight. Convection may have a greater
impact on KPKB/KCKB/KEKN than currently forecast, and TS may
eventually need to be included in TAFs.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                                             TUE 05/28/19
UTC 1HRLY       03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14
EDT 1HRLY       23   00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    M    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    M    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 06Z WEDNESDAY...
Brief IFR possible in thunderstorms Thursday/Thursday night.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...None.
OH...None.
KY...None.
VA...None.

&&

SYNOPSIS...RH/30
NEAR TERM...RH/SL
SHORT TERM...30
LONG TERM...30
AVIATION...SL

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Charleston WV
1209 AM EDT Tue May 28 2019

KYZ101>103-105-OHZ083-086-087-VAZ003-004-WVZ005>008-013>016-018-020-
024>034-039-040-515>526-290415-
Greenup-Carter-Boyd-Lawrence KY-Jackson OH-Gallia-Lawrence OH-
Dickenson-Buchanan-Wayne-Cabell-Mason-Jackson WV-Lincoln-Putnam-
Kanawha-Roane-Calhoun-Doddridge-Mingo-Logan-Boone-Clay-Braxton-
Gilmer-Lewis-Harrison-Taylor-McDowell-Wyoming-Upshur-Barbour-
Northwest Raleigh-Southeast Raleigh-Northwest Fayette-
Southeast Fayette-Northwest Nicholas-Southeast Nicholas-
Northwest Webster-Southeast Webster-Northwest Pocahontas-
Southeast Pocahontas-Northwest Randolph-Southeast Randolph-
1209 AM EDT Tue May 28 2019

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for northeast Kentucky, portions
of southeast Ohio, southwest Virginia and much of West Virginia.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Hazardous weather is not expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Weather spotters are encouraged to report significant weather
conditions by calling the toll-free spotter hotline, or by other
methods detailed at www.weather.gov/rlx/reports.

OHZ066-067-075-076-084-085-WVZ009>011-017-019-290415-
Perry-Morgan-Athens-Washington-Vinton-Meigs-Wood-Pleasants-Tyler-
Wirt-Ritchie-
1209 AM EDT Tue May 28 2019

...TORNADO WATCH 269 IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 AM EDT EARLY THIS MORNING...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of southeast Ohio
and northern West Virginia.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Tornado Watch.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Weather spotters are encouraged to report significant weather
conditions by calling the toll-free spotter hotline, or by other
methods detailed at www.weather.gov/rlx/reports.