Special Weather Statement, NWS Charleston, WV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Charleston WV
328 AM EDT Wed Aug 7 2019

.SYNOPSIS...
A weak cold front and upper level system passes today with
another front passing Thursday night/Friday. High pressure this
weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 200 AM Wednesday...

Broad upper trof axis in conjunction with a prefrontal surface
trof will will take much of the day to cross and push east.
Scattered convection continues at this hour along and near the
OH River, with the greatest coverage noted across northern KY.
Expect this to slowly overspread areas further east over the
next several hours. I suspect convection, though mainly elevated
in nature, will be slow to diminish given the forcing aloft with
the trof axis sharpening a bit thru 12Z.

Isolated to scattered showers can be expected after sunrise,
mainly east of the OH River, though an elevated storm cannot be
ruled out either. Otherwise areas of stratus, will gradually
lift into a robust CU field with insolation providing for
surface based instability by midday. Isolated to scattered
convection will develop in the afternoon, with the greatest
chances generally along and east of the I79 corridor,
coinciding with the position of the trof axis at that time.

Another perturbation with the mean trof will cross early this
evening which may spark a shower or storm. Otherwise, expect low
stratus to develop with patchy dense river valley fog overnight.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
As of 325 AM Wednesday...

Models showing a cold front approaching on Thursday with showers
and thunderstorms moving into the area. With good instability
and some mid level dry air, DCAPE values are substantial over
southeast Ohio and northern/northwestern WV. Therefore, can't
rule out some damaging winds.

The front will continue to push southward Thursday night. With
west to northwest flow aloft in advance of the system, moisture
is rather limited. Some models are developing a wave along the
front that would provide some precipitation on Friday, although
some models do not have this feature and would keep most of the
area in drier air. Therefore, confidence in the Friday forecast
is lower than normal at this range.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 325 AM Wednesday...

A high pressure system will build in for the weekend providing
dry weather for Saturday and Sunday.

Models are showing another front for early next week, but timing
and details between the models vary considerably, leading to a
low confidence forecast.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 210 AM Wednesday...

Approaching upper level trof will result in scattered
convection along and in the vicinity of the OH River will affect
HTS/PKB thru 09Z. I have carried MVFR TSRA at HTS where the
threat is the greatest with VCTS for CRW/CKB. Brief IFR VSBY is
possible in any storm and will be handled with amendments should
clear indications of impacts become apparent. Convection should
wane after 09Z such that only VCSH was coded up for BKW/EKN.

MVFR stratus is expected to develop behind the convection,
affecting PKB/HTS for a time this morning. Isolated to
scattered SHRA later this morning as the upper level trof
crosses, with isolated TSRA in the afternoon mainly CKB/EKN.

Behind this system, IFR or worse stratus and patchy fog is
expected to develop at most terminals tonight.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Low thru 12Z with timing and extent of
convection, although high with occurrence of periodic
restrictions HTS/PKB. Medium for ceilings this morning at
HTS/PKB.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Convection may affect mountain terminals
this 09-12Z.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                              WED 08/07/19
UTC 1HRLY       06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17
EDT 1HRLY       02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    M    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    L    L    M    L    H    H    H    M    M
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    L    L    M    M    M    M    L    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    L    L    L    H    M    H    M    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 06Z THURSDAY...
Brief IFR possible in showers and thunderstorms Wednesday and
Wednesday night.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...None.
OH...None.
KY...None.
VA...None.

&&

SYNOPSIS...RPY/30
NEAR TERM...30
SHORT TERM...RPY
LONG TERM...RPY
AVIATION...30

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Charleston WV
355 AM EDT Wed Aug 7 2019

OHZ066-067-075-076-083-084-080800-
Perry-Morgan-Athens-Washington-Jackson OH-Vinton-
355 AM EDT Wed Aug 7 2019

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of southeast Ohio.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight.

Hazardous weather is not expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.

There is a slight chance that thunderstorms Thursday afternoon and
evening could produce damaging wind gusts and large hail

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Weather spotters are encouraged to report significant weather
conditions by calling the toll-free spotter hotline, or by other
methods detailed at www.weather.gov/rlx/reports.

KYZ101-OHZ085>087-WVZ006>011-014-016>020-029>032-040-080800-
Greenup-Meigs-Gallia-Lawrence OH-Cabell-Mason-Jackson WV-Wood-
Pleasants-Tyler-Putnam-Roane-Wirt-Calhoun-Ritchie-Doddridge-Gilmer-
Lewis-Harrison-Taylor-Barbour-
355 AM EDT Wed Aug 7 2019

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of northeast
Kentucky, portions of southeast Ohio, and portions of central West
Virginia, northern West Virginia, southern West Virginia and
western West Virginia.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight.

Hazardous weather is not expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.

There is a marginal chance that thunderstorms Thursday afternoon and
evening could produce damaging wind gusts and large hail

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Weather spotters are encouraged to report significant weather
conditions by calling the toll-free spotter hotline, or by other
methods detailed at www.weather.gov/rlx/reports.

KYZ102-103-105-VAZ003-004-WVZ005-013-015-024>028-033-034-039-515>526-
080800-
Carter-Boyd-Lawrence KY-Dickenson-Buchanan-Wayne-Lincoln-Kanawha-
Mingo-Logan-Boone-Clay-Braxton-McDowell-Wyoming-Upshur-
Northwest Raleigh-Southeast Raleigh-Northwest Fayette-
Southeast Fayette-Northwest Nicholas-Southeast Nicholas-
Northwest Webster-Southeast Webster-Northwest Pocahontas-
Southeast Pocahontas-Northwest Randolph-Southeast Randolph-
355 AM EDT Wed Aug 7 2019

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of northeast
Kentucky, southwest Virginia and much of West Virginia.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Weather spotters are encouraged to report significant weather
conditions by calling the toll-free spotter hotline, or by other
methods detailed at www.weather.gov/rlx/reports.

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>