Special Weather Statement, NWS Charleston, WV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Charleston WV
240 PM EDT Thu Jul 11 2019

.SYNOPSIS...
Strong storms and heavy rain today ahead of a cold front. High
pressure builds for the beginning of the weekend. Unsettled
weather returns next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 240 PM Thursday...

Today through early tonight, a fairly potent northern stream
trough crosses, providing synoptic-level support for widespread
showers and storms and eventually the passage of a cold front
later. At the meso-scale, storms formed over the Ohio Valley
this morning and tracked ENE into western and northern West
Virginia where they currently reside. While this activity has
taken a bite out of available instability for much of the area,
and has prevented further destabilization given ample cloud
cover, sunny skies along the western periphery has allowed for
the development of a corridor of strong instability extending
from central KY into central/eastern OH. Meanwhile, dry air
enters the mid-levels coincident with moisture convergence up to
1.5-2.00"+ PWAT along pre- frontal and frontal waves. These
combined factors lead to a slight risk per SPC of downbursts/
damaging winds in the Ohio Valley this afternoon and early
evening in spite of weak wind fields.

This line of thinking along with satellite trends point to
potentially severe storms forming over OH/KY and migrating east
into our area where they will likely begin to weaken when they
encounter a worked-over atmosphere closer to the Ohio River.
Pockets of instability may still exist in some places, however,
so do agree with marginal risk for severe wind gusts across the
entire area outside of a slight risk near and west of the Ohio
River. High rainfall rates and low FFG also led to the issuance
of a Flash Flood Watch across interior portions of north/central
WV in coordination with neighboring offices. Storm motion ought
to stave off flooding impacts elsewhere.

Later this evening, the main cold front and its pressure trough
cross into the Ohio Valley. Do expect additional showers along the
front, but the setting sun and early storm activity will likely
limit storm activity, especially east. Tonight, the front is slow to
move into the mountains and tends to stall across it and the
southern zones into mid-Friday. This allows for a stratus deck
to form across the southeast half of the forecast area, while
low level flow staves off fog development. Isolated to scattered
showers in the mountains and across the south are likely to
form in the vicinity of the front Friday, with perhaps enough
destabilization across SW VA to pop an afternoon thunderstorm.
Morning cloud cover will initially inhibit warming, then highs
reach into the 70's and 80's during the afternoon.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
As of 225 PM Thursday...

Drier air, at least off the surface, will continue to advect
into the area Friday night with PWATs dropping below an inch.
Some dense river valley fog looks to develop overnight as lows
settle down below readings from recent days values.

Saturday looks to mainly sunny with just enough mixing to bring
down drier air aloft for dewpoints to drop into the lower to mid
60s. High temperatures look to be very close to normal.

A warm front develops across portions of the OH Valley on Sunday
which will provide for a change of diurnally driven convection,
in addition to an uptick in humidity/temperature.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 225 PM Thursday...

Upper level riding tries to build in early next week with
attention turning to where the remnants of Barry track. It may
take until Wednesday or Thursday to see the effects from this
system.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 200 PM Thursday...

VFR prevails at all sites this afternoon with IFR or worse
conditions likely in waves of heavy-raining thunderstorms. Winds
prevail from the SW today, turning gusty and variable in storms.
In general storms will produce variable gusts in the 20-30 kt
range, although the strongest storms will be capable of
producing 40+ kt winds. High moisture content is leading to very
heavy downpours with brief drops in visibility, commonly to IFR, to
LIFR in heaviest storms. Larger clusters of shower activity are
capable of bringing ceilings down to MVFR as well.

Most sites are seeing impacts at this time, spare for PKB, who
is enjoying a break in the action. This break is likely area-
wide late this afternoon, before another wave of storms comes in
later this evening. Though, the weakly capped environment will
still be conducive for isolated to scattered showers. After the
cold front crosses tonight from W to E, winds shift to
northwesterly. Tomorrow morning during the pre- dawn hours, a
low stratus deck is likely to form near and south of the slow-
moving front. GLAMP guidance suggest reduced ceilings at all
sites, however do think it'll be a bit tougher to attain at PKB
and HTS. At any rate expect stratus deck to lift and scatter
through the morning. Low confidence exists in this portion of
the forecast with widely varying model solutions. Low level flow
ought to stave off fog development, though if these should
calm, quick VSBY degradations are likely overnight with high
humidity.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium/high today, low tonight.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Timing of convection may vary; timing and
occurrence of LL stratus may vary; patchy fog is possible though
unlikely.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05
EDT 1HRLY       14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M    L    L
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    L    M
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    H

AFTER 18Z FRIDAY...
IFR fog possible Saturday morning.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...Flash Flood Watch until 8 PM EDT this evening for WVZ030>032-
     039-040-521>526.
OH...None.
KY...None.
VA...None.

&&

SYNOPSIS...30/MC
NEAR TERM...MC
SHORT TERM...30
LONG TERM...30
AVIATION...MC

Hazardous Weather Outlook...UPDATED
National Weather Service Charleston WV
1239 PM EDT Thu Jul 11 2019

VAZ003-004-WVZ024>026-033-034-515>520-121645-
Dickenson-Buchanan-Mingo-Logan-Boone-McDowell-Wyoming-
Northwest Raleigh-Southeast Raleigh-Northwest Fayette-
Southeast Fayette-Northwest Nicholas-Southeast Nicholas-
1239 PM EDT Thu Jul 11 2019

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for southwest Virginia, and
portions of southeast West Virginia and southern West Virginia.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight.

An isolated strong to severe thunderstorm may occur this afternoon
and early evening. Damaging winds are the primary strong storm risk.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Weather spotters are encouraged to report significant weather
conditions by calling the toll-free spotter hotline, or by other
methods detailed at www.weather.gov/rlx/reports.

WVZ030>032-039-040-521>526-121645-
Lewis-Harrison-Taylor-Upshur-Barbour-Northwest Webster-
Southeast Webster-Northwest Pocahontas-Southeast Pocahontas-
Northwest Randolph-Southeast Randolph-
1239 PM EDT Thu Jul 11 2019

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of central West
Virginia, northeast West Virginia and northern West Virginia.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Flash Flood Watch.

There is also a slight risk for severe thunderstorms today. Damaging
winds are the primary risk.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Weather spotters are encouraged to report significant weather
conditions by calling the toll-free spotter hotline, or by other
methods detailed at www.weather.gov/rlx/reports.

KYZ101>103-105-OHZ066-067-075-076-083>087-WVZ005>011-013>020-027>029-
121645-
Greenup-Carter-Boyd-Lawrence KY-Perry-Morgan-Athens-Washington-
Jackson OH-Vinton-Meigs-Gallia-Lawrence OH-Wayne-Cabell-Mason-
Jackson WV-Wood-Pleasants-Tyler-Lincoln-Putnam-Kanawha-Roane-Wirt-
Calhoun-Ritchie-Doddridge-Clay-Braxton-Gilmer-
1239 PM EDT Thu Jul 11 2019

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for northeast Kentucky, southeast
Ohio, and portions of central West Virginia, northern West
Virginia, southern West Virginia and western West Virginia.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight.

There is a slight risk for severe thunderstorms today. Damaging
winds are the primary risk.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Weather spotters are encouraged to report significant weather
conditions by calling the toll-free spotter hotline, or by other
methods detailed at www.weather.gov/rlx/reports.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Charleston WV
437 PM EDT Thu Jul 11 2019

OHZ066-112100-
Perry-
437 PM EDT Thu Jul 11 2019

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT PERRY COUNTY...

At 436 PM EDT, a strong thunderstorm was located near Harbor Hills,
or near Heath, moving southeast at 15 mph.

Winds in excess of 30 mph are possible with this storm.

Locations impacted include...
New Lexington, Somerset, Shawnee, Perry State Forest, Thornport,
Crooksville, Thornville, Junction City, Glenford and Hemlock.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may cause
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Excessive runoff from heavy rainfall will cause elevated levels on
small creeks and streams, and ponding of water in urban areas,
highways, streets and underpasses, as well as other poor drainage
areas and low lying spots.

LAT...LON 3992 8241 3991 8217 3982 8217 3981 8207
      3973 8208 3973 8202 3969 8203 3957 8216
      3990 8247 3993 8246
TIME...MOT...LOC 2036Z 308DEG 13KT 3997 8238

JZ

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
443 PM EDT THU JUL 11 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0255 PM     HEAVY RAIN       1 WNW SELBYVILLE        38.76N  80.26W
07/11/2019  M2.04 INCH       UPSHUR             WV   MESONET

            FELL IN ONE HOUR AT PLSW2

&&

EVENT NUMBER RLX1901838

HART

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Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Charleston WV
622 PM EDT Thu Jul 11 2019

OHZ075-084-112315-
Athens-Vinton-
622 PM EDT Thu Jul 11 2019

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT WEST CENTRAL ATHENS AND VINTON
COUNTIES...

At 622 PM EDT, a strong thunderstorm was located near Hocking Hills
State Park, or 10 miles north of Mcarthur, moving southeast at 20
mph.

Wind gusts up to 50 mph are possible with this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Mcarthur, Lake Hope State Park, Zaleski, Creola and Radcliffe.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may cause
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Excessive runoff from heavy rainfall will cause elevated levels on
small creeks and streams, and ponding of water in urban areas,
highways, streets and underpasses, as well as other poor drainage
areas and low lying spots.

LAT...LON 3935 8269 3936 8270 3936 8264 3937 8263
      3937 8252 3940 8251 3939 8234 3930 8218
      3920 8228 3920 8231 3917 8231 3911 8237
TIME...MOT...LOC 2222Z 306DEG 18KT 3939 8254

JZ

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Charleston WV
652 PM EDT Thu Jul 11 2019

OHZ067-075-076-WVZ009-011-112315-
Washington-Athens-Morgan-Wood-Tyler-
652 PM EDT Thu Jul 11 2019

...A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT WASHINGTON...SOUTHERN
MORGAN...CENTRAL ATHENS...NORTHWESTERN TYLER AND NORTHWESTERN WOOD
COUNTIES...

At 651 PM EDT, radar indicated strong thunderstorms were located
along a line extending from 9 miles east of Beverly to 6 miles
southwest of Chesterhill. Movement was east at 35 mph.

Wind gusts of 50 to 55 mph are possible with these storms.

Locations impacted include...
Parkersburg, Athens, Marietta, Belpre, Glouster, Beverly, Coolville,
Chesterhill, Vienna, Nelsonville, Williamstown, Paden City,
Sistersville, Washington, Boaz, Lubeck, Chauncey, Matamoras, North
Hills and Buchtel.

This includes the following highways...
 Interstate 77 in West Virginia between mile markers 180 and 186.
 Interstate 77 in Ohio between mile markers 1 and 15.
 Route 50 in West Virginia between mile markers 1 and 3.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with these storms, and may
cause localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

LAT...LON 3959 8135 3959 8128 3961 8127 3958 8125
      3957 8104 3954 8104 3961 8095 3958 8089
      3960 8085 3958 8083 3918 8178 3918 8187
      3944 8228 3962 8165 3962 8159 3959 8159
      3958 8152 3958 8148 3962 8147 3962 8141
TIME...MOT...LOC 2251Z 269DEG 36KT 3958 8146 3943 8195

RG

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Charleston WV
731 PM EDT Thu Jul 11 2019

OHZ076-WVZ010-011-019-020-120000-
Washington-Doddridge-Ritchie-Pleasants-Tyler-
731 PM EDT Thu Jul 11 2019

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT EAST CENTRAL WASHINGTON...
NORTHEASTERN PLEASANTS...NORTHEASTERN RITCHIE...NORTHWESTERN
DODDRIDGE AND TYLER COUNTIES...

At 730 PM EDT, a strong thunderstorm was located near Sistersville,
or 8 miles northeast of St. Marys, moving southeast at 25 mph.

Wind gusts up to 50 mph are possible with this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Middlebourne, Sistersville, Pennsboro, Matamoras, Friendly, Alma,
Greenwood, Arvilla, Point Lookout, New Matamoras, Wick, Mountain,
Lima, Hebron and Canton.

This includes Route 50 in West Virginia between mile markers 42 and
50.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may cause
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

LAT...LON 3957 8108 3957 8104 3954 8104 3956 8101
      3945 8065 3920 8089 3946 8122 3958 8108
TIME...MOT...LOC 2330Z 307DEG 23KT 3949 8107

RG