Severe Thunderstorm Warning 25, NWS Charleston, WV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Charleston WV
932 PM EDT Sun Apr 14 2019

.SYNOPSIS...
Cold front moves through overnight with showers and storms. Cold
air behind the front will likely change rain to snow at highest
elevations. High pressure then returns for much of the week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 930 PM Sunday...

Allowed wind advisory to expire as all non-thunderstorm winds
appear to be in the 25-35 mph range now. Synoptically, the cold
front is currently bisecting the forecast area and will be
crossing into the mountains over the next couple hours. Severe
threat still remains across the NE CWA for the next hour or so
as the line of storms moves through.

As of 239 PM Sunday...

A vigorous surface low pressure system will track just northeast
of the area this afternoon. Meanwhile, an associated cold front
will reach the OH River around 8 PM this evening. A high deep
shear exceeding 80 knots, CAPE values exceeding 1600 J/Kg,
strong boundary layer convergence will provide enough forcing to
produce severe updrafts and consequently severe thunderstorms.
There is a Tornado Watch in effect for most parts of southeast
OH, northeast KY and eastern half of WV. The main threat will be
damaging winds. Although large hail and tornadoes can not be
ruled out. The timing of the worst thunderstorms will occur from
4pm through 10 pm tonight. Stay tuned to the NOAA weather radio
or your favorite media sources for updates on this dangerous
weather situation.

The threat for severe storms will diminish before midnight
tonight over the northeast and central mountains of WV.
Much colder air will filter in behind the cold front to drop
temperatures into the upper 30s tonight, as models consensus
points out H850 temperatures reaching minus 5C or 6C. There is a
small chance for few snow flakes or mix snow with rain to be
seen over the highest tops of our northeast mountains by Monday
morning. However, no accumulations are anticipated.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 225 PM Sunday...

Drier with high pressure over the area through the short term
period. Temperatures warm each day through the week as high
pressure/ridging continues to build over the region.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 225 PM Sunday...

We will end the week with a strong system/cold front pushing
through. This will bring a round of showers and thunderstorms,
with heavy downpours due to deep moisture fetch from Gulf of
Mexico. Still some timing differences between the models, but
severe storm could be possible if the system speeds up and hits
Thursday afternoon/evening or if a slower solution brings it
through Friday afternoon. Most guidance at this time has it
coming during the overnight hours Thursday into Friday morning,
and this would limit severe thunderstorm potential, but heavy
rain would remain a threat.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 740 PM Sunday...

Line of storms continues moving its way across the forecast
area, with move isolated showers and storms behind it. Expect a
period of IFR as the line moves through any given area, and
tried to time this into the sites that are closer to the line.
Even outside of the storms, still have gusty winds which will
gradually decrease from west to east tonight.

Expect a MVFR stratus deck to form as cold air moves in behind
this system. This cloud deck should linger into Monday as cold
air advection continues aloft.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: High.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Amendments likely as line of storm
continues across the forecast area. Timing of MVFR to IFR
ceilings coming in overnight may vary.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                                                            MON 04/15/19
UTC 1HRLY       00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11
EDT 1HRLY       20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07
CRW CONSISTENCY  M    H    L    L    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  L    M    H    H    H    H    M    M    M    M    M    M
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    M    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    L    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    M    H    M    M    M    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 00Z TUESDAY...
IFR possible in showers and thunderstorms by Friday.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...Wind Advisory until 7 PM EDT Monday for WVZ523-526.
OH...None.
KY...None.
VA...None.

&&

SYNOPSIS...ARJ/MPK
NEAR TERM...ARJ/MZ
SHORT TERM...MPK
LONG TERM...MPK
AVIATION...MZ

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Charleston WV
927 PM EDT Sun Apr 14 2019

WVZ523-526-160130-
Northwest Pocahontas-Southeast Randolph-
927 PM EDT Sun Apr 14 2019

...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM EDT MONDAY...
...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 70 IN EFFECT UNTIL 2 AM EDT MONDAY...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of northeast West
Virginia.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Wind Advisory.
   Severe Thunderstorm Watch.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Wind Advisory.

Wind Advisory.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Weather spotters are encouraged to report significant weather
 conditions according to Standard Operating Procedures.

WVZ027-028-032-039-040-515>522-524-525-160130-
Clay-Braxton-Taylor-Upshur-Barbour-Northwest Raleigh-
Southeast Raleigh-Northwest Fayette-Southeast Fayette-
Northwest Nicholas-Southeast Nicholas-Northwest Webster-
Southeast Webster-Southeast Pocahontas-Northwest Randolph-
927 PM EDT Sun Apr 14 2019

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 70 IN EFFECT UNTIL 2 AM EDT MONDAY...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of central West
Virginia, northeast West Virginia, northern West Virginia and
southeast West Virginia.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

  Severe Thunderstorm Watch.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday.

Strong winds may occur Monday across the higher mountainous terrain
in West Virginia.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Weather spotters are encouraged to report significant weather
 conditions according to Standard Operating Procedures.

KYZ101>103-105-OHZ066-067-075-076-083>087-VAZ003-004-WVZ005>011-
013>020-024>026-029>031-033-034-160130-
Greenup-Carter-Boyd-Lawrence KY-Perry-Morgan-Athens-Washington-
Jackson OH-Vinton-Meigs-Gallia-Lawrence OH-Dickenson-Buchanan-Wayne-
Cabell-Mason-Jackson WV-Wood-Pleasants-Tyler-Lincoln-Putnam-Kanawha-
Roane-Wirt-Calhoun-Ritchie-Doddridge-Mingo-Logan-Boone-Gilmer-Lewis-
Harrison-McDowell-Wyoming-
927 PM EDT Sun Apr 14 2019

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for northeast Kentucky, southeast
Ohio, southwest Virginia, and portions of central West Virginia,
northern West Virginia, southern West Virginia and western West
Virginia.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Hazardous weather is not expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday.

Hazardous weather is not expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Weather spotters are encouraged to report significant weather
 conditions according to Standard Operating Procedures.

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
920 PM EDT SUN APR 14 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0820 PM     TSTM WND DMG     NORTHFORK               37.42N  81.43W
04/14/2019                   MCDOWELL           WV   911 CALL CENTER

            TREES DOWN ALONG ROUTE 52.

&&

EVENT NUMBER RLX1901464

RG

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
922 PM EDT SUN APR 14 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0820 PM     TSTM WND DMG     CARETTA                 37.34N  81.67W
04/14/2019                   MCDOWELL           WV   911 CALL CENTER

            TREES REPORTED DOWN ALONG ROUTE 16.

&&

EVENT NUMBER RLX1901465

RG

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
942 PM EDT SUN APR 14 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0910 PM     TSTM WND DMG     HILTON VILLAGE          38.02N  80.90W
04/14/2019                   FAYETTE            WV   BROADCAST MEDIA

            TREES DOWN ON ROUTE 60. ROAD CLOSED IN BOTH DIRECTIONS.

&&

EVENT NUMBER RLX1901466

ABE