Severe Thunderstorm Warning 198, NWS Charleston, WV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Charleston WV
736 PM EDT Thu Aug 8 2019

.SYNOPSIS...
Cold front passes tonight/Friday with showers and storms. High
pressure this weekend. Another front early next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 515 PM Thursday...

Convection is still ongoing to the north and some storms have
now developed to the west and appear to have potential to
encroach the area this evening. Downed trees associated with
strong gusty winds as well as quarter size hail have been
reported and there is still a threat through the evening. The
forecast is still on track, however only modified sky condition
to represent current observations and trend.

As of 150 PM Thursday...

Showers and storms already ongoing. Most of the activity is
skirting by just to the north so far, but radar shows some
development across the NE forecast area as well. We have a
rather unstable atmosphere in place, with MLCAPE pushing
1000J/kg across the north and west thanks to abundant sunshine
this morning. Low level moisture is a bit limited with
dewpoints generally in the low 60s. Shear is also limited right
now with bulk shear values generally under 25kts, but we should
see some increase across the northern third of the forecast area late
this afternoon and evening. DCAPE values also are decent,
getting close to 1000 J/kg in spots thanks to some midlevel dry
air. Taking all of this into account, showers and storms should
continue to develop and move in through the afternoon, with some
of these storms capable of damaging wind gusts. Not all that
concerned about large hail with weak mid level lapse rates and a
decent freezing level, but some nickle to quarter size hail
could be possible in the taller cells.

All of this is happening ahead of a cold front which will sink
into the forecast area tonight, briefly stalling out somewhere
across the central or southern counties through the pre-dawn
hours. Any of the stronger thunderstorm activity should weaken
through the late evening and overnight hours with decreasing
instability, but did keep POPs in along the front through the
night.

As mixing gets going, and an upper level shortwave trough slides
through on Friday, the front should continue southward Friday
into Friday night. Have scattered to likely POPs across the
south Friday afternoon.

Temperature wise, stuck close to a consensus blend.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
As of 215 PM Thursday...

Big bubble no trouble... as high pressure builds in across the
area. This high will provide drier and less humid weather for
most areas Saturday and Sunday night. Kept close to guidance
temperature blend throughout.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 215 PM Thursday...

Models are coming into agreement with the next system to affect
the area late Monday night through Wednesday night. This will
keep showers and thunderstorms in the forecast.

Weak high pressure will bring drier weather back into the
region for Thursday. Kept with model guidance blend for
temperatures throughout.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 730 PM Thursday...

For this forecast period expect mostly VFR conditions with some
occasional MVFR in patchy fog in the early morning hours. Fog
will especially be prominent near the areas where earlier
convection took place which will affect PKB/CKB and EKN. Clouds
will remain constant over the area although breaks in clouds
will help initiate the patchy fog. There is still a chance for
valley fog elsewhere, however it will not be as extensive
thanks to the cloud coverage and dry conditions. Winds should
suppress most of the fog throughout the area although valleys or
sheltered areas will likely see some patches/low stratus.

A front will make its way over and through the area into Friday
creating the possibility for more convection although
probability is very low. For this reason thunderstorms were left
out of the TAFs. If a storm develops near a terminal a
potential shower could drop the VIS down to MVFR temporarily
with the possibility of IFR in a rare case through this
forecast period. Since confidence of location and timing of any
storm development is low, left in VCSH/VCTS into the late
evening with possible showers at BKW on Friday afternoon as the
front exits to the south. Winds will generally be around 5 to
10KT out of the southwest and veer to the northwest after
frontal passage late Friday afternoon.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Timing and intensity of fog may vary
especially if cloud breaks are more abundant.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09
EDT 1HRLY       18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    L
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    H    L    L    L
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    L
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 00Z SATURDAY...
Brief IFR possible in showers and thunderstorms Friday afternoon
and evening. IFR possible in fog and stratus Saturday morning,
and in valley fog Sunday and Monday mornings.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...None.
OH...None.
KY...None.
VA...None.

&&

SYNOPSIS...JS/MZ/JZ
NEAR TERM...MZ/JZ
SHORT TERM...JS
LONG TERM...JS
AVIATION...JZ

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Charleston WV
240 AM EDT Thu Aug 8 2019

OHZ066-067-075-076-083>087-WVZ007>011-016>020-028>032-039-040-521-
522-525-526-090645-
Perry-Morgan-Athens-Washington-Jackson OH-Vinton-Meigs-Gallia-
Lawrence OH-Mason-Jackson WV-Wood-Pleasants-Tyler-Roane-Wirt-Calhoun-
Ritchie-Doddridge-Braxton-Gilmer-Lewis-Harrison-Taylor-Upshur-
Barbour-Northwest Webster-Southeast Webster-Northwest Randolph-
Southeast Randolph-
240 AM EDT Thu Aug 8 2019

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for southeast Ohio, and portions
of central West Virginia, northeast West Virginia, northern West
Virginia and western West Virginia.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight.

There is a slight chance that thunderstorms this afternoon and
evening could produce damaging wind gusts and large hail. Some of the
storms could produce isolated flash flooding.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

Hazardous weather is not expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Weather spotters are encouraged to report significant weather
conditions by calling the toll-free spotter hotline, or by other
methods detailed at www.weather.gov/rlx/reports.

KYZ101>103-105-VAZ003-004-WVZ005-006-013>015-024>027-033-034-515>520-
523-524-090645-
Greenup-Carter-Boyd-Lawrence KY-Dickenson-Buchanan-Wayne-Cabell-
Lincoln-Putnam-Kanawha-Mingo-Logan-Boone-Clay-McDowell-Wyoming-
Northwest Raleigh-Southeast Raleigh-Northwest Fayette-
Southeast Fayette-Northwest Nicholas-Southeast Nicholas-
Northwest Pocahontas-Southeast Pocahontas-
240 AM EDT Thu Aug 8 2019

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for northeast Kentucky, southwest
Virginia, and portions of central West Virginia, northeast West
Virginia, southeast West Virginia, southern West Virginia and
western West Virginia.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Weather spotters are encouraged to report significant weather
conditions by calling the toll-free spotter hotline, or by other
methods detailed at www.weather.gov/rlx/reports.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
555 PM EDT THU AUG 08 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0457 PM     TSTM WND DMG     2 NNW FIVE FORKS        39.20N  81.00W
08/08/2019                   RITCHIE            WV   911 CALL CENTER

            MULTIPLE TREES REPORTED DOWN NEAR PULLMAN RD. TIME
            ESTIMATED FROM RADAR.

&&

EVENT NUMBER RLX1901875

NPB

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Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Charleston WV
700 PM EDT Thu Aug 8 2019

WVZ028-029-521-082345-
Northwest Webster-Gilmer-Braxton-
700 PM EDT Thu Aug 8 2019

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT SOUTH CENTRAL GILMER AND CENTRAL
BRAXTON COUNTIES...

At 700 PM EDT, a strong thunderstorm was located 7 miles southeast of
Cedar Creek State Park, or 9 miles south of Glenville, moving
southeast at 25 mph.

Wind gusts up to 45 mph and half inch hail are possible with this
storm.

Locations impacted include...
Sutton, Gassaway, Flatwoods, Exchange, Little Birch, Heaters,
Cedarville, Centralia and Falls Mills.

This includes the following highways...
 Interstate 79 between mile markers 58 and 78.
 Route 19 near mile marker 68.

LAT...LON 3853 8066 3881 8095 3890 8077 3874 8045
      3873 8045 3873 8044 3872 8042
TIME...MOT...LOC 2300Z 315DEG 18KT 3880 8077

22

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
728 PM EDT THU AUG 08 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0615 PM     TSTM WND DMG     MARIETTA                39.43N  81.42W
08/08/2019                   WASHINGTON         OH   DEPT OF HIGHWAYS

            TREE DOWN AND BLOCKING SR 339 IN BOTH DIRECTIONS AT
            MILE MARKER 10.2 NEAR SR 550.

&&

EVENT NUMBER RLX1901878

TRM

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
740 PM EDT THU AUG 08 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0506 PM     TSTM WND DMG     2 NNE JOY               39.50N  81.93W
08/08/2019                   MORGAN             OH   911 CALL CENTER

            TREES AND POWER LINES DOWN ALONG WOOD RD. NEAR CHESTER
            HILL. TIME ESTIMATED FROM RADAR.

&&

EVENT NUMBER RLX1901879

AML