Severe Thunderstorm Warning 159, NWS Charleston, WV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Charleston WV
642 PM EDT Tue Jul 2 2019

.SYNOPSIS...
Very warm and humid for much of the rest of the week, with the
daily chance for mainly afternoon and evening showers and
thunderstorms.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 641 PM Tuesday...

The initial round of widely scattered showers/storms from
earlier this afternoon has mainly pushed east of the region, but
will need to monitor additional convection across OH and KY as
storms continue to move to the ESE. While a gradual weakening
trend is expected with the activity in OH and KY with the
approach of sunset, additional shortwave energy and lingering
outflow boundaries could still support showers/storms in the
late evening and overnight. This was highlighted well in the
afternoon forecast package so just did some minor tweaks to PoPs
as a result, but the general idea remains the same.

As of 150 PM Tuesday...

Diurnally driven convection is spawning across the Ohio River
Valley this afternoon, with some quickly pulsing up to severe
status. SPC Mesoanalysis indicates downdraft CAPE of 1000-1200
J/kg across the northern line of storms crossing in from
southeast Ohio will have the greatest potential of inflicting
strong wind gusts. These storms will continue into the evening
hours and remain primarily mesoscale driven. As of the latest
SPC outlook, the Marginal Risk for strong storms remains in the
PBZ CWA and northward.

Hi-res model guidance diverges with how the first portion of the
overnight period will evolve. Some models hint at more
convection pressing down from the Great Lakes along a southward
moving boundary, while others clear precip out of our area just
before midnight. Given the forecast soundings for tonight
showing instability remaining fairly high, will maintain slight
POPs for the northern extent of the CWA. However, will maintain
the mention of isolated flash flooding through the period.

A more confident day for severe weather arrives on Wednesday,
with abundant moisture (on the upwards of 2"), diurnal heating,
and embedded shortwave energy riding in along the zonal flow
aloft. Expect storms to once again prosper during peak heating,
mostly isolated to scattered in nature.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
As of 215 PM Tuesday...

Showers and thunderstorms will likely continue across the area
Wednesday evening as the area continues to remain in a warm
unstable airmass. Still could have an isolated strong to severe
storm Wednesday evening, mainly due to downburst potential, but
overall severe threat is low due to lack of strong
dynamics/shear. As usual, with the high moisture content air,
storms will contain heavy downpours, and could lead to localized
water issues, particularly if repetitive storms hit an area.

Showers and thunderstorms will continue to be a threat Thursday
into Friday as multiple upper disturbances cross the area.

In addition, heat indices will continue to range in the mid to
upper 90s during the period. At this point, do not anticipate
heat advisory criteria of 100 or greater.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 220 PM Tuesday...

Weather will remain unsettled during the period, with multiple
upper disturbances crossing in the warm, humid, unsettled
atmosphere. High pressure will attempt to build in for the start
of next week, with a possible break for much of the CWA in the
active pattern, although showers and thunderstorms will still be
a possibility, mainly across the higher terrain counties during
peak heating hours.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 200 PM Tuesday...

Afternoon cumulus deck has sprouted into thunderstorms, some
approaching severe levels, and will continue to thrive through
the remaining daytime hours. Expect sporadic flight restrictions
to be inflicted on the TAF sites today, with quick vsby
reductions and gusty winds being the primary threat.

Storms will dwindle in intensity and coverage overnight with the
loss of daytime heating, but persisting a tad bit longer over
the northeast mountains. VFR conditions should return for a
brief time tonight with the conclusion of convection. However,
with high moisture content in the area, fog development is
likely to occur Wednesday morning. Duration and intensity of the
fog will likely be finessed by the oncoming shift with the next
TAF package, but for now have dropped all terminals to at least
MVFR vsbys during the predawn hours, with some sites dropping
further down into IFR.

Another round of showers and storms are anticipated on Wednesday
due to very little change in the current weather pattern.
Therefore, isolated flight restrictions will be possible again
for the final hours of this current TAF period.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium to High.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Timing and location of showers and
thunderstorms could vary. Fog development may vary at all
terminals Wednesday morning.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09
EDT 1HRLY       18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    L    L
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    L    L
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    H    H

AFTER 00Z THURSDAY...
Brief IFR possible in scattered showers and thunderstorms this
week.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...None.
OH...None.
KY...None.
VA...None.

&&

SYNOPSIS...RPY/JZ/MEK
NEAR TERM...RG/MEK
SHORT TERM...SL
LONG TERM...SL
AVIATION...MEK

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Charleston WV
227 PM EDT Tue Jul 2 2019

KYZ101>103-105-OHZ066-067-075-076-083>087-VAZ003-004-WVZ005>011-
013>020-024>034-039-040-515>526-031830-
Greenup-Carter-Boyd-Lawrence KY-Perry-Morgan-Athens-Washington-
Jackson OH-Vinton-Meigs-Gallia-Lawrence OH-Dickenson-Buchanan-Wayne-
Cabell-Mason-Jackson WV-Wood-Pleasants-Tyler-Lincoln-Putnam-Kanawha-
Roane-Wirt-Calhoun-Ritchie-Doddridge-Mingo-Logan-Boone-Clay-Braxton-
Gilmer-Lewis-Harrison-Taylor-McDowell-Wyoming-Upshur-Barbour-
Northwest Raleigh-Southeast Raleigh-Northwest Fayette-
Southeast Fayette-Northwest Nicholas-Southeast Nicholas-
Northwest Webster-Southeast Webster-Northwest Pocahontas-
Southeast Pocahontas-Northwest Randolph-Southeast Randolph-
227 PM EDT Tue Jul 2 2019

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for northeast Kentucky, southeast
Ohio, southwest Virginia and much of West Virginia.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight.

Isolated to scattered thunderstorms today with strong wind gusts and
localized flash flooding possible. Widespread severe weather is not
expected.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
538 PM EDT TUE JUL 02 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0213 PM     TSTM WND DMG     2 N LIBERTY             38.65N  81.72W
07/02/2019                   PUTNAM             WV   NWS EMPLOYEE

            HEALTHY LOCUST TREE BLOWN DOWN AND BROKEN AT BASE OF
            TREE ON NWS EMPLOYEE PROPERTY

&&

EVENT NUMBER RLX1901806

HART

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
543 PM EDT TUE JUL 02 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0200 PM     TSTM WND DMG     1 SE SILVER VALLEY ESTA 38.47N  81.80W
07/02/2019                   PUTNAM             WV   911 CALL CENTER

            PUTNAM 911 REPORTS SEVERAL TREES DOWN ON POWER LINES AT
            THE INTERSECTION OF SILVER ST AND DAIRY RD NEAR POCA.
            TIME ESTIMATED FROM RADAR.

&&

EVENT NUMBER RLX1901807

AML

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Charleston WV
610 PM EDT Tue Jul 2 2019

OHZ084-022245-
Vinton-
610 PM EDT Tue Jul 2 2019

...AN AREA OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT VINTON COUNTY...

At 610 PM EDT, strong thunderstorms were clustered near Mcarthur,
moving southeast at 25 mph.

Wind gusts up to 50 mph and half inch hail are possible with this
storm.

Locations impacted include...
Wellston, Mcarthur, Hamden, Zaleski, Allensville, Creola and Eagle
Mills.

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

LAT...LON 3936 8264 3937 8263 3937 8252 3940 8251
      3939 8248 3927 8226 3922 8227 3913 8242
      3914 8243 3914 8254 3918 8254 3919 8261
      3936 8275 3937 8275
TIME...MOT...LOC 2210Z 302DEG 21KT 3931 8252

HART

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
628 PM EDT TUE JUL 02 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1253 PM     TSTM WND DMG     4 SE ATHENS             39.28N  82.04W
07/02/2019                   ATHENS             OH   911 CALL CENTER

            ATHENS 911 REPORTS SEVERAL TREES DOWN AND SOME POWER
            LINES DOWN IN THE ANGEL RIDGE RD, COOLVILLE RIDGE RD,
            AND ST RT 32 AREAS. TIME ESTIMATED FROM RADAR.

&&

EVENT NUMBER RLX1901808

AML

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Charleston WV
705 PM EDT Tue Jul 2 2019

OHZ066-022330-
Perry-
705 PM EDT Tue Jul 2 2019

...A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT PERRY COUNTY...

At 704 PM EDT, radar indicated strong thunderstorms were located
along a line extending from 8 miles south of Danville to Thornport to
near Baltimore. Movement was southeast at 30 mph.

Wind gusts of 50 to 55 mph are possible with these storms.

Locations impacted include...
New Lexington, Somerset, Shawnee, Perry State Forest, Thornport,
Harbor Hills, Crooksville, Thornville, Junction City, New
Straitsville, Glenford and Hemlock.

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

These storms may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

LAT...LON 3991 8217 3982 8217 3981 8207 3973 8208
      3972 8202 3966 8203 3956 8222 3956 8226
      3959 8226 3960 8237 3974 8236 3974 8241
      3983 8240 3984 8247 3993 8246
TIME...MOT...LOC 2304Z 302DEG 25KT 4033 8223 3990 8245 3979 8267

HART