Severe Thunderstorm Warning 121, NWS Charleston, WV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Charleston WV
314 PM EDT Sun Jun 2 2019

.SYNOPSIS...
Showers and storms today, some severe, with cold front passage.
Monday and Tuesday will be dry and cooler then a warm trend and
unsettled weather returns for the second half of the work week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 135 PM Sunday...

Today, a well phased trough extends down the eastern CONUS, centered
over Ontario and Quebec. As a shortwave trough rotates around the
mean trough through today, an elongated pressure trough/frontal
boundary pushes through the Ohio Valley and across the spine of
Appalachia providing forcing for widespread showers and storms
during the afternoon into the early evening. At this hour, the
surface front rests across southeast Ohio, evident from storm
activity along it. Instability grows ahead of the surface front
with warm, moist advection, and hires guidance suggests mixed
layer CAPE on the order of 2000-2500 J/kg this afternoon, more
than enough to support strong updrafts and explosive development.
Shear coincident with the front and instability is a bit more
marginal, with 0-6km shear in the 30-35 kt range at best.

All in all, expected scattered showers and storms to continue this
afternoon tracking west to east accompanying the cold front with
a several of these storms packing damaging wind gusts. In line
with SPC's thinking, do think there will be a mainly clusters of
storms and few line segments along the front, especially toward
the north where better shear exists later this afternoon.
Storms spill into southern WV and SW VA roughly 5-7PM as the
front travels south. After this, instability declines and storm
activity outruns better shear toward the north. So, expect
storm activity to quickly decline around and especially after
sundown. Heavy downpours are expected with storms, so isolated
flash flooding is also a possibility, particularly across
central portions of WV where 1-hr flash flood guidance is
1-1.5".

Tonight, a very dry air mass invades behind the upper level
trough axis, quickly cutting post-frontal showers in the
mountains after midnight and scouring out cloud cover across the
lowlands. Skies clear out for the most part by dawn. 850 mb
temperatures manage to dip down to 4-6 deg C by dawn under
strong cold advection, leading to low temperatures overnight in
the 40's across higher elevations, to the low 50's across the
southern coal fields. Cold advection continues Monday, so
in spite of mostly clear skies, a cool NW wind will limit
afternoon high temperatures to the 50's and 60's, perhaps around
70 in the coal fields.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 400 AM Sunday...

This period starts with a broad trough to the east and high pressure
sitting on top of the area.  Cooler drier air with clear skies in
place will allow for optimal radiational cooling especially with
lower dewpoints into the mid 30's for the northeast mountains.
This can cause some patchy frost to develop which should be
isolated and confined to mainly valleys, however higher
elevations cannot be ruled out.

Unfortunately the high moves east throughout Tuesday and allows
a surface low over the Great Lakes to swing a warm frontal
boundary towards the area. With plenty of moisture advecting in
along with lifting ahead of the boundary, showers and storm
start to be a factor Wednesday morning, possibly even earlier.
Models indicate a surface low will develop and ride along the
boundary to the northeast enhancing any showers and convection
for Wednesday afternoon. Unsettled weather persists through
Wednesday and there is a possibility that storms can develop
into strong to severe in the late afternoon/evening. A
reinforcing cold front moves into the area associated with the
same surface low bringing more lift for potential storms and
showers lasting through the overnight.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 300 PM Sunday...

The aforementioned cold frontal boundary above will become
quasi-stationary and oscillate over the region through the
weekend. For late Sunday models agree a broad and deep surface
low, which is suppose to form over the Gulf near Mexico, will
approach from the southwest and continue the unsettled weather
and chances of thunderstorms for the remainder of this forecast
period. Left chances and above for thunderstorms through the
weekend and even further out as a very active weather pattern
sets up for the area.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 145 PM Sunday...

Showers and storms today with a cold frontal passage, followed
by clearing and a wind shift later this evening. Although VFR
generally prevails early, visibility and perhaps ceilings could
quickly degrade to IFR conditions if a TAF site takes a direct
hit from a storm. Using what's on radar at this hour, storms
will impact PKB for the next hour or two; HTS within the next 3
hours ; CRW roughly 3PM to 5PM ; CKB from now through roughly
5PM ; and EKN from roughly 3 PM to 6PM.

Winds this afternoon are generally from the SW at 5-10 kts and
will turn W after frontal passage, and eventually NW tonight.
Under storms, wind gusts 30-40 kts will be probable with gusts
up to 60 kts possible. With no site immediately in danger of a
storm, decided to stick with 20-30 kt gusts but this may need to
be reevaluated as storms increase in coverage.

A brief bout of MVFR ceiling or perhaps fog is possible at
EKN/CKB/BKW tonight, roughly 07-10Z. Little confidence exists
with this however given very dry air set to rush in behind the
front, so have left prevailing conditions out for now. VFR
conditions prevail through tomorrow otherwise, with mostly sunny
skies and a northwest wind 5-10 kts.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium this afternoon, high tonight and
tomorrow.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Timing of showers and storms and associated
restrictions may vary.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05
EDT 1HRLY       14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    M    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 18Z MONDAY...
None at this time.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...None.
OH...None.
KY...None.
VA...None.

&&

SYNOPSIS...ARJ/SL/MC/JZ
NEAR TERM...MC
SHORT TERM...JZ
LONG TERM...JZ
AVIATION...MC

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Charleston WV
307 PM EDT Sun Jun 2 2019

VAZ003-004-031915-
Dickenson-Buchanan-
307 PM EDT Sun Jun 2 2019

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for southwest Virginia.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight.

Showers and thunderstorms are expected across the area today. Brief
heavy downpours and gusty winds are possible with any storms. These
storms could also produce localized flooding.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday.

Hazardous weather is not expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Weather spotters are encouraged to report significant weather
conditions by calling the toll-free spotter hotline, or by other
methods detailed at www.weather.gov/rlx/reports.

OHZ085>087-WVZ005>011-013>020-024>034-039-040-515>522-031915-
Meigs-Gallia-Lawrence OH-Wayne-Cabell-Mason-Jackson WV-Wood-
Pleasants-Tyler-Lincoln-Putnam-Kanawha-Roane-Wirt-Calhoun-Ritchie-
Doddridge-Mingo-Logan-Boone-Clay-Braxton-Gilmer-Lewis-Harrison-
Taylor-McDowell-Wyoming-Upshur-Barbour-Northwest Raleigh-
Southeast Raleigh-Northwest Fayette-Southeast Fayette-
Northwest Nicholas-Southeast Nicholas-Northwest Webster-
Southeast Webster-
307 PM EDT Sun Jun 2 2019

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 315 IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of southeast Ohio
and much of West Virginia.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Severe Thunderstorm Watch.

There is potential for scattered severe thunderstorms today with
damaging wind gusts, small hail and lightning as the primary
threats. These storms could also produce localized flooding.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday.

Hazardous weather is not expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Weather spotters are encouraged to report significant weather
conditions by calling the toll-free spotter hotline, or by other
methods detailed at www.weather.gov/rlx/reports.

KYZ101>103-105-031915-
Greenup-Carter-Boyd-Lawrence KY-
307 PM EDT Sun Jun 2 2019

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for northeast Kentucky.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight.

There is a marginal risk for isolated strong to severe thunderstorms
on Sunday. These storms could also produce localized flooding.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday.

Hazardous weather is not expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Weather spotters are encouraged to report significant weather
conditions by calling the toll-free spotter hotline, or by other
methods detailed at www.weather.gov/rlx/reports.

WVZ523>526-031915-
Northwest Pocahontas-Southeast Pocahontas-Northwest Randolph-
Southeast Randolph-
307 PM EDT Sun Jun 2 2019

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 315 IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of northeast West
Virginia.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Severe Thunderstorm Watch.

There is potential for scattered severe thunderstorms today with
damaging wind gusts, small hail and lightning as the primary
threats. These storms could also produce localized flooding.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday.

Frost is possible in the better sheltered mountain valleys Monday
night into Tuesday morning.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Weather spotters are encouraged to report significant weather
conditions by calling the toll-free spotter hotline, or by other
methods detailed at www.weather.gov/rlx/reports.

OHZ066-067-075-076-083-084-031915-
Perry-Morgan-Athens-Washington-Jackson OH-Vinton-
307 PM EDT Sun Jun 2 2019

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of southeast Ohio.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Weather spotters are encouraged to report significant weather
conditions by calling the toll-free spotter hotline, or by other
methods detailed at www.weather.gov/rlx/reports.

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