Severe Thunderstorm Warning 11, NWS Charleston, WV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Charleston WV
629 PM EDT Sun Apr 14 2019

.SYNOPSIS...
Warm and breezy afternoon starting with light rain. Powerful
cold front moves later this afternoon to bring numerous showers
and severe storms through the evening hours. High pressure
returns and lasts through much of the week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 630 PM Sunday...

Line of thunderstorms continues to move from west to east across
the forecast area. Cleared the watch behind this line. While
storms have struggled to get much organization, will continue
eastern side of the watch. Reworked POPs to tighten up the
gradient on either side of this line.

As of 239 PM Sunday...

A vigorous surface low pressure system will track just northeast
of the area this afternoon. Meanwhile, an associated cold front
will reach the OH River around 8 PM this evening. A high deep
shear exceeding 80 knots, CAPE values exceeding 1600 J/Kg,
strong boundary layer convergence will provide enough forcing to
produce severe updrafts and consequently severe thunderstorms.
There is a Tornado Watch in effect for most parts of southeast
OH, northeast KY and eastern half of WV. The main threat will be
damaging winds. Although large hail and tornadoes can not be
ruled out. The timing of the worst thunderstorms will occur from
4pm through 10 pm tonight. Stay tuned to the NOAA weather radio
or your favorite media sources for updates on this dangerous
weather situation.

The threat for severe storms will diminish before midnight
tonight over the northeast and central mountains of WV.
Much colder air will filter in behind the cold front to drop
temperatures into the upper 30s tonight, as models consensus
points out H850 temperatures reaching minus 5C or 6C. There is a
small chance for few snow flakes or mix snow with rain to be
seen over the highest tops of our northeast mountains by Monday
morning. However, no accumulations are anticipated.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 225 PM Sunday...

Drier with high pressure over the area through the short term
period. Temperatures warm each day through the week as high
pressure/ridging continues to build over the region.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 225 PM Sunday...

We will end the week with a strong system/cold front pushing
through. This will bring a round of showers and thunderstorms,
with heavy downpours due to deep moisture fetch from Gulf of
Mexico. Still some timing differences between the models, but
severe storm could be possible if the system speeds up and hits
Thursday afternoon/evening or if a slower solution brings it
through Friday afternoon. Most guidance at this time has it
coming during the overnight hours Thursday into Friday morning,
and this would limit severe thunderstorm potential, but heavy
rain would remain a threat.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 200 PM Sunday...

VFR conditions prevailing through at least 20Z. Then, clouds
and convection will fire up this afternoon to produce periods of
IFR/LIFR along the strongest storms. Southerly flow will
increase to 15-20 knots with gusts around 40-45 knots with
strongest storms.

Weather charts analysis show a warm front slowly lifting north
producing light rain across the eastern third of the forecast
area this afternoon. This activity is expected to exit east of
the Appalachians by 4 pm. Meanwhile, the area will remain in the
warm sector of a vigorous surface low pressure system. This low
will track northeast of the area into this evening, bringing a
strong cold front which should arrive to southeast OH around 20Z
this afternoon. Numerous showers and strong thunderstorms will
develop to produce winds gusts exceeding 50 knots with the
stronger storms. Lightning and possible tornadoes are also
expected to develop from 1-2pm through at least 8pm this
evening.

LLWS and heavy turbulence is likely with this storm system. By
06Z Monday, the cold front will be east of the Appalachian,
while colder airmass move in behind the front. Available low
level moisture, and cooling temperatures could produce post rain MVFR/IFR
ceilings or fog during the late overnight hours into Monday
morning.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: High.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Timing of severe winds and associated IFR
or worst conditions could vary. Amendments will be necessary
for direct hit storms to airports.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09
EDT 1HRLY       18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    L    L    H    H    H    M    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  M    M    H    H    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    L    M    H    H    H    H    M    M    M    M
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    M    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    M    M    H    H    H    M    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    L    H    H    L    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 00Z TUESDAY...
IFR possible in a few showers and possible stratus on Monday,
especially in the mountains. IFR in showers and thunderstorms by
Friday.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...Wind Advisory until 7 PM EDT Monday for WVZ523-526.
     Wind Advisory until 9 PM EDT this evening for WVZ005-006-
     013>015-024>027-033-034-515>520-522.
OH...Wind Advisory until 9 PM EDT this evening for OHZ087.
KY...Wind Advisory until 9 PM EDT this evening for KYZ101>103-105.
VA...Wind Advisory until 9 PM EDT this evening for VAZ003-004.

&&

SYNOPSIS...ARJ/MPK
NEAR TERM...ARJ/MZ
SHORT TERM...MPK
LONG TERM...MPK
AVIATION...ARJ

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
526 PM EDT SUN APR 14 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0522 PM     TSTM WND DMG     3 SE EAGLE MILLS        39.30N  82.66W
04/14/2019                   VINTON             OH   911 CALL CENTER

            TREES AND POWER LINES DOWN ALONG BEACH GROVE ROAD.

&&

EVENT NUMBER RLX1901447

RG

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
529 PM EDT SUN APR 14 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0415 PM     TSTM WND DMG     ZALESKI                 39.28N  82.40W
04/14/2019                   VINTON             OH   911 CALL CENTER

            TREES AND POWER LINES DOWN ALONG ROUTE 278.

&&

EVENT NUMBER RLX1901448

RG

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
532 PM EDT SUN APR 14 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0415 PM     TSTM WND DMG     3 SE EAGLE MILLS        39.30N  82.66W
04/14/2019                   VINTON             OH   911 CALL CENTER

            TREES AND POWER LINES DOWN ALONG BEACH GROVE ROAD.
            CORRECTED TIME

&&

CORRECTED EVENT TIME...FATALITIES...INJURIES...REMARKS

EVENT NUMBER RLX1901447

MZ

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
542 PM EDT SUN APR 14 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0535 PM     TSTM WND GST     2 SW ALBANY             39.21N  82.22W
04/14/2019  M61 MPH          ATHENS             OH   AWOS

&&

EVENT NUMBER RLX1901449

ABE

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
553 PM EDT SUN APR 14 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0540 PM     TSTM WND DMG     ATHENS                  39.32N  82.10W
04/14/2019                   ATHENS             OH   BROADCAST MEDIA

            OHIO UNIVERSITY WEBCAM SHOWED LARGE LIMBS DOWN AND PINE
            TREE SNAPPED DUE TO THUNDERSTORM WINDS.

&&

EVENT NUMBER RLX1901450

ABE

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Charleston WV
605 PM EDT Sun Apr 14 2019

WVZ005-006-013-142245-
Lincoln-Wayne-Cabell-
605 PM EDT Sun Apr 14 2019

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT SOUTHEASTERN CABELL...
NORTHWESTERN LINCOLN AND CENTRAL WAYNE COUNTIES...

At 604 PM EDT, a strong thunderstorm was located near Wayne, moving
northeast at 50 mph.

Winds in excess of 45 mph are possible with this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Wayne, Hamlin, Milton, Culloden, East Lynn Lake, Kiahsville, Dunlow,
West Hamlin, Branchland, Salt Rock, East Lynn, Genoa and Myra.

This includes Interstate 64 in West Virginia between mile markers 25
and 32.

LAT...LON 3849 8210 3850 8209 3846 8205 3841 8205
      3834 8204 3829 8205 3828 8202 3801 8244
      3815 8259
TIME...MOT...LOC 2204Z 231DEG 46KT 3817 8246

MEK