Severe Thunderstorm Warning 103, NWS Charleston, WV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Charleston WV
1011 AM EDT Wed May 29 2019

.SYNOPSIS...
Cold front approaches from the north today. Cold front pushes
southeast late Thursday. Another cold front Saturday. Canadian
high pressure early next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 1005 AM Wednesday...

Isolated convection this morning will increase in coverage
midday and work east across the area area thru mid afternoon.
Latest GOES imagery shows convective tops already increasing
along a leftover boundary from last night convection. GOES GLM
shows increase in lightning density along the various updrafts
along this instability gradient, generally along the OH River
west of the CWA.

Latest RAP shows a decent low level theta e ridge nosing along
and ahead of said boundary, which is likely allowing for the
morning intensification of the cells in southern OH. RAP
indicates MLCAPE values approaching 1.5k J/kg over the next few
hours as this moves eastward and with 0-6km shear around 40 kts
amid decent mid level flow, expect at least some strong
convection if not a few severe this afternoon. With poor low
and mid level lapse rates, thinking large hail is less of a
threat than damaging wind. Having said that, there is some
disagreement on how great the damaging wind potential is...
with RAP indicating a more moist sounding profile than the
NAM/NAMnest. Tornado potential appears low given unidirectional
shear profile.

I updated the grids to increase POPs midday to early afternoon
and tweaked temperature/dewpoint grids.

As of 225 AM Wednesday...

An upper level disturbance will provide for a chance of a shower
or thunderstorm this morning. Chances of precipitation increase
this afternoon and evening as convection moves off a frontal
boundary to the north and west of the area, and propagates into
the region. That said, models are struggling with timing on the
storms, so confidence in timing is low. With CAPE approaching
2000 and DCAPE over 1000, could see some large hail and
damaging winds.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
As of 305 AM Wednesday...

Pattern remains active in the short term. Expecting a cold front
late Thursday to push through the region, and expect more
rounds of showers and storms as it does so, and will remain in a
marginal risk from SPC. Once the front is through, convective
activity will be backed up by a short wave trough axis aloft
expected to drop through from the northwest in a transition to
northwest flow aloft. This is due to the retrograding ridge from
the southeast to the south plains, and an upper low that will
descend from the Hudson Bay towards the Canadian maritimes.
Cooler airmass will be dominant.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 305 AM Wednesday...

While we lose the activity from the baroclinic zone that
controlled the area earlier this week, the 500mb northwest flow
will keep weak waves aloft pushing in from the upper
Mississippi Valley/western Great Lakes. Surface front moves
through Saturday with one of those waves. Could have less
instability to work with as the airmass in place will be cooler,
and dewpoints look to remain in the 50s to lower 60s in the
extended as opposed to the more summer-like readings before the
synoptic pattern change. Regardless, pattern will be on the
progressive side before more robust Canadian high pressure
arrives early next week.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 500 AM Wednesday...

Outside of convection, VFR conditions should prevail today and
tonight. A couple of showers and thunderstorms could form this
morning, but the majority of the storms will be this afternoon
and tonight. Storms this afternoon and evening could be
especially strong with large hail and strong winds.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: High.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Timing of showers and thunderstorms could
vary. Due to the scattered nature of the thunderstorms, the full
intensity possible in the thunderstorms is not reflected in the
TAF.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23
EDT 1HRLY       08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    M    M    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 12Z THURSDAY...
Brief IFR possible in thunderstorms Wednesday night into
Thursday night.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...None.
OH...None.
KY...None.
VA...None.

&&

SYNOPSIS...RPY/26
NEAR TERM...RPY/30
SHORT TERM...26
LONG TERM...26
AVIATION...RPY

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Charleston WV
1156 AM EDT Wed May 29 2019

OHZ085-WVZ008>011-016>020-028>032-039-040-301600-
Meigs-Jackson WV-Wood-Pleasants-Tyler-Roane-Wirt-Calhoun-Ritchie-
Doddridge-Braxton-Gilmer-Lewis-Harrison-Taylor-Upshur-Barbour-
1156 AM EDT Wed May 29 2019

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 290 IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of southeast Ohio,
and portions of central West Virginia and northern West Virginia.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Severe Thunderstorm Watch.

There is a slight risk of excessive rainfall this afternoon and
evening from rounds of thunderstorms. Flooding may become an issue.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.

There is a marginal risk of severe thunderstorms Thursday.

There is a slight risk of excessive rainfall Thursday from rounds of
thunderstorms. Flooding may become an issue.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Weather spotters are encouraged to report significant weather
conditions by calling the toll-free spotter hotline, or by other
methods detailed at www.weather.gov/rlx/reports.

OHZ066-067-075-076-084-301600-
Perry-Morgan-Athens-Washington-Vinton-
1156 AM EDT Wed May 29 2019

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of southeast Ohio.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight.

There is a slight risk of severe thunderstorms this afternoon and
evening. The primary threats are large hail and damaging winds. An
isolated tornado is possible.

There is a slight risk of excessive rainfall this afternoon and
evening from rounds of thunderstorms. Flooding may become an issue.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.

There is a marginal risk of severe thunderstorms Thursday.

There is a slight risk of excessive rainfall Thursday from rounds of
thunderstorms. Flooding may become an issue.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Weather spotters are encouraged to report significant weather
conditions by calling the toll-free spotter hotline, or by other
methods detailed at www.weather.gov/rlx/reports.

KYZ101>103-105-OHZ086-087-WVZ005>007-013>015-024>027-034-515>526-
301600-
Greenup-Carter-Boyd-Lawrence KY-Gallia-Lawrence OH-Wayne-Cabell-
Mason-Lincoln-Putnam-Kanawha-Mingo-Logan-Boone-Clay-Wyoming-
Northwest Raleigh-Southeast Raleigh-Northwest Fayette-
Southeast Fayette-Northwest Nicholas-Southeast Nicholas-
Northwest Webster-Southeast Webster-Northwest Pocahontas-
Southeast Pocahontas-Northwest Randolph-Southeast Randolph-
1156 AM EDT Wed May 29 2019

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 290 IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for northeast Kentucky, portions
of southeast Ohio, and portions of central West Virginia, northeast
West Virginia, southeast West Virginia, southern West Virginia and
western West Virginia.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Severe Thunderstorm Watch.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.

There is a marginal risk of severe thunderstorms Thursday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Weather spotters are encouraged to report significant weather
conditions by calling the toll-free spotter hotline, or by other
methods detailed at www.weather.gov/rlx/reports.

OHZ083-VAZ003-004-WVZ033-301600-
Jackson OH-Dickenson-Buchanan-McDowell-
1156 AM EDT Wed May 29 2019

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of southeast Ohio,
southwest Virginia and southern West Virginia.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight.

There is a slight risk of severe thunderstorms this afternoon and
evening. The primary threats are large hail and damaging winds. An
isolated tornado is possible.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.

There is a marginal risk of severe thunderstorms Thursday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Weather spotters are encouraged to report significant weather
conditions by calling the toll-free spotter hotline, or by other
methods detailed at www.weather.gov/rlx/reports.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
140 PM EDT WED MAY 29 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1212 PM     TSTM WND DMG     POINT PLEASANT          38.85N  82.13W
05/29/2019                   MASON              WV   EMERGENCY MNGR

            MULTIPLE LARGE TREES UPROOTED WITH SOME DOWN ON
            STRUCTURES.

&&

EVENT NUMBER RLX1901646

ABE

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Charleston WV
141 PM EDT Wed May 29 2019

WVZ522-523-525-526-291815-
Southeast Webster-Northwest Randolph-Northwest Pocahontas-Southeast
Randolph-
141 PM EDT Wed May 29 2019

...AN AREA OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT SOUTHWESTERN
RANDOLPH...NORTHEASTERN POCAHONTAS AND EAST CENTRAL WEBSTER
COUNTIES...

At 140 PM EDT, strong thunderstorms were clustered 12 miles northwest
of Snowshoe, or 12 miles northwest of Cass Scenic Railroad, moving
east at 45 mph.

Wind gusts up to 50 mph and pea size hail are possible with this
storm.

Locations impacted include...
Mingo, Durbin, Monterville, Cheat Bridge, Bartow, Valley Head, Waneta
and Boyer.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may cause
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

In hilly terrain there are hundreds of low water crossings which are
potentially dangerous in heavy rain. Do not attempt to travel across
flooded roads. Find alternate routes. It takes only a few inches of
swiftly flowing water to carry vehicles away.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 700 PM EDT for
northeastern West Virginia.

LAT...LON 3860 7964 3856 7967 3853 7967 3852 7966
      3851 7967 3851 7968 3849 7969 3848 7979
      3849 7984 3848 7986 3844 8019 3855 8030
      3861 8027 3878 7974 3862 7962
TIME...MOT...LOC 1740Z 257DEG 43KT 3855 8012

HART

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
148 PM EDT WED MAY 29 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1235 PM     TSTM WND DMG     2 NE RAVENSWOOD         38.98N  81.74W
05/29/2019                   JACKSON            WV   DEPT OF HIGHWAYS

            NUMEROUS TREES DOWN ON ROADS THROUGHOUT THE COUNTY.
            LITTLE SANDY ROAD IS ONE ROAD BLOCKED BY FALLEN TREES.

&&

EVENT NUMBER RLX1901647

ABE

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
151 PM EDT WED MAY 29 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0105 PM     TSTM WND DMG     2 NNW SPENCER           38.83N 81.38W
05/29/2019                   ROANE              WV   911 CALL CENTER

            TREES DOWN ALONG BARRCUT RD. TIME ESTIMATED
            FROM RADAR.

&&

WEBB

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Charleston WV
156 PM EDT Wed May 29 2019

WVZ521-522-525-526-291830-
Southeast Webster-Northwest Randolph-Northwest Webster-Southeast
Randolph-
156 PM EDT Wed May 29 2019

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT SOUTHWESTERN RANDOLPH AND
NORTHERN WEBSTER COUNTIES...

At 155 PM EDT, a strong thunderstorm was located 10 miles northwest
of Webster Springs, moving east at 35 mph.

Winds in excess of 40 mph and nickel size hail are possible with this
storm.

Locations impacted include...
Webster Springs, Addison (Webster Springs), Holly River State, Diana,
Hacker Valley, Bergoo, Helvetia, Pickens, Waneta and Erbacon.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 700 PM EDT for
north central and northeastern West Virginia.

LAT...LON 3849 8011 3847 8063 3853 8065 3863 8052
      3871 8033 3869 8032 3869 8030 3870 8028
      3874 8024 3874 8020
TIME...MOT...LOC 1755Z 255DEG 30KT 3855 8058

JZ

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