River Flood Warning 22, NWS Charleston, WV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Charleston WV
233 PM EST Mon Dec 16 2019

.SYNOPSIS...
Significant low pressure system continues tonight bringing
periods of rain and a flooding threat. High pressure and quiet
weather for the second half of the week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 235 PM Monday...

Shield of rain is now pushing northward ever so slowly with the
approach of a wave of surface low pressure along the warm
frontal boundary draped along the lowlands adjacent to the
mountains. Lower level moisture feed keeps surging from the
Gulf into the middle Ohio Valley, and the lower level
frontogenesis will strengthen over the next few hours
significantly. Models keep this band of forcing and moisture
moving along its orientation SW-NE and will result in
significant rainfall to come for the Ohio River counties in SE
Ohio, NE Kentucky, and West Virginia. Additional rainfall of 1
to 2 inches expected in this region, peaking in the 20Z-06Z time
frame. Flood Watch remains in place, and will likely see water
issues with creeks and streams already running high in these
areas from rainfall over the last couple of days.

Low pressure center passes around 12Z or so Tuesday and will see
cold air advection commence from central Ohio into the CWA.
Expect changing precipitation types, but ice should be limited
to nil over the SE Ohio zones. By the time the rain changes to
snow, bulk of the moisture depth will be exiting as is fairly
typical in these synoptic setups. Precipitation changes in the
mountains will be a bit more complex with lower elevation rain
to snow, but the mountains still in the warm wedge getting a
period of a few hours in the afternoon Tuesday of freezing rain
potential. There is a bit of a lower confidence with this, so
will not issue a headline for the modest amounts of ice in the
forecast which are only a couple of hundredths for the most
part. Should still see snow of the cold air advection and
upslope variety once the freezing rain changes over, and have
some accumulations in there as well. These amounts are sub-
headline worthy for now going into the short term period.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 130 PM Monday...

Any lingering upslope showers in the mountains of West Virginia
taper off through the the morning Wednesday. Precip type by this
point looks to be mostly snow with cloud-tops cooling to at or below
minus 10C supporting heterogeneous ice nucleation. Post frontal
drier air filtering in will yield morning lows mainly in the
mid-20s for the Lowlands and mid-teens in the mountains
Wednesday morning. A weak cold front will lay out across the
northern fringes of the forecast Wednesday evening with a
reinforcing shot of cold air. This could bring a few snow
showers to our northern counties as well as the mountains of
West Virginia with some moisture enhancement coming off of Lake
Michigan.

The bigger impact will be cold morning lows Thursday, teens across
much of the lower elevations and single digits in the mountains.
Winds across the lower elevations will be mostly light Thursday
morning, but in the mountains H850 winds of 20-30KTs will likely
yield a brisk, to say the least morning with wind chills in the
minus teens to minus single digits. This may necessitate an
eventual wind chill advisory for the higher terrain of
Pocahontas and Randolph County.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 130 PM Monday...

Still quite a bit of spread in the models regarding southern stream
system approaching Friday night into Saturday with majority of
ensemble members keeping the strongest ascent and thus precipitation
mainly south and east of our forecast area. Will need to keep an eye
on how the solutions evolve over the next few days.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 1245 PM Monday...

Lots of prevailing IFR in rain, mist, and fog, with some
fluctuations at times briefly to MVFR in and out of rain, but
the general story is low ceilings and visibilities through much
of the period. Weather is caused by a continuous feed of
moisture form the Gulf and an oscillating frontal boundary and
wave of low pressure along it. System will pass towards the end
of the forecast period with improving conditions expected beyond
18Z Tuesday.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: High confidence in extended periods of IFR
or worse. Lower confidence in break times and duration into
improved flight categories.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05
EST 1HRLY       13   14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00
CRW CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    H    M    M    H    M    M    H    M    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  M    L    L    H    M    M    L    M    M    H    M    L
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    L    L    M    M    M    H    M    M    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  M    H    H    H    M    H    H    L    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    M    H    M    M    H    M    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    H    H

AFTER 18Z TUESDAY...
IFR possible in rain and snow showers during the day Tuesday
into Tuesday evening.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...Flood Watch through Tuesday evening for WVZ005>011-013>020-
     024>034-039-040-515>526.
OH...Flood Watch through Tuesday evening for OHZ075-076-083>087.
KY...Flood Watch through Tuesday evening for KYZ101>103-105.
VA...Flood Watch through Tuesday evening for VAZ003-004.

&&

SYNOPSIS...26/JP
NEAR TERM...26
SHORT TERM...JP
LONG TERM...JP
AVIATION...26

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Charleston WV
928 AM EST Mon Dec 16 2019

KYZ101>103-105-OHZ075-076-083>087-VAZ003-004-WVZ005>011-013>020-
024>034-039-040-515>526-171430-
Greenup-Carter-Boyd-Lawrence KY-Athens-Washington-Jackson OH-Vinton-
Meigs-Gallia-Lawrence OH-Dickenson-Buchanan-Wayne-Cabell-Mason-
Jackson WV-Wood-Pleasants-Tyler-Lincoln-Putnam-Kanawha-Roane-Wirt-
Calhoun-Ritchie-Doddridge-Mingo-Logan-Boone-Clay-Braxton-Gilmer-
Lewis-Harrison-Taylor-McDowell-Wyoming-Upshur-Barbour-
Northwest Raleigh-Southeast Raleigh-Northwest Fayette-
Southeast Fayette-Northwest Nicholas-Southeast Nicholas-
Northwest Webster-Southeast Webster-Northwest Pocahontas-
Southeast Pocahontas-Northwest Randolph-Southeast Randolph-
928 AM EST Mon Dec 16 2019

...FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for northeast Kentucky, portions
of southeast Ohio, southwest Virginia and much of West Virginia.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Flood Watch.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Flood Watch.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Weather spotters are encouraged to report significant weather
conditions by calling the toll-free spotter hotline, or by other
methods detailed at www.weather.gov/rlx/reports.

OHZ066-067-171430-
Perry-Morgan-
928 AM EST Mon Dec 16 2019

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of southeast Ohio.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight.

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday.

Additional light snow and possibly freezing rain and sleet may occur
early Tuesday. Another Winter Weather Advisory may eventually be
required for late Monday night into Tuesday morning.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Weather spotters are encouraged to report significant weather
conditions by calling the toll-free spotter hotline, or by other
methods detailed at www.weather.gov/rlx/reports.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Charleston WV
307 PM EST Mon Dec 16 2019

KYZ101>103-105-OHZ083>087-WVZ005>007-014-162300-
Boyd-Lawrence-Greenup-Carter-Jackson-Lawrence-Vinton-Meigs-Gallia-
Wayne-Mason-Cabell-Putnam-
307 PM EST Mon Dec 16 2019

...HEAVY RAIN WILL AFFECT BOYD...GREENUP...CARTER...NORTHWESTERN
LAWRENCE...WEST CENTRAL MEIGS...LAWRENCE...GALLIA...SOUTHERN
JACKSON...SOUTHEASTERN VINTON...NORTHWESTERN PUTNAM...NORTHWESTERN
WAYNE...WESTERN MASON AND CABELL COUNTIES...

At 302 PM EST, a band of heavy rain was located over Northeast
Kentucky and the Tri-State area of Kentucky, Ohio and West Virginia.
This rain band will continue over the next couple of hours.  Quick
rises on small streams and creeks can be expected.

Locations impacted include...
Huntington, Ashland, Portsmouth, Ironton, Jackson, Point Pleasant,
Grayson, Gallipolis, Winfield, Coal Grove, Olive Hill, Oak Hill, Rio
Grande, Chesapeake, Proctorville, Beech Fork State Park, Cannonsburg,
Lake Vesuvius, Grayson Lake State Park and Carter Caves State Park.

This includes the following highways...
 Interstate 64 in Kentucky between mile markers 150 and 191.
 Interstate 64 in West Virginia between mile markers 1 and 37.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with these bands of rain, and
may cause localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through
flooded roadways.

A Flash Flood Watch remains in effect. Heavy downpours could cause
rapid rises in water. If rising water is observed, move to higher
ground. Do not drive into areas covered by water.

In hilly terrain there are hundreds of low water crossings which are
potentially dangerous in heavy rain. Do not attempt to travel across
flooded roads. Find alternate routes. It takes only a few inches of
swiftly flowing water to carry vehicles away.

LAT...LON 3834 8323 3873 8303 3876 8289 3858 8284
      3860 8274 3861 8274 3868 8276 3868 8270
      3885 8265 3886 8276 3897 8280 3916 8224
      3850 8184 3809 8293 3811 8290 3812 8289
      3817 8292 3827 8317 3819 8326 3831 8334
TIME...MOT...LOC 2002Z 240DEG 49KT 3846 8303

21

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
500 PM EST MON DEC 16 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0453 PM     FLOOD            BEECH GROVE             38.31N  82.93W
12/16/2019                   CARTER             KY   911 CALL CENTER

            CANOE RUN JUST COMING OUT OF BANKS ONTO HIGHWAY 1 NEAR
            DAMRON BRANCH.

0454 PM     FLOOD            RUSH                    38.34N  82.79W
12/16/2019                   CARTER             KY   911 CALL CENTER

            WILLIAMS CREEK JUST COMING OUT OF BANK ALONG ROUTE 1654
            NEAR ROUTE 854... WATER NOT ONTO ROAD YET.

0457 PM     FLOOD            1 NW IRONVILLE          38.47N  82.71W
12/16/2019                   BOYD               KY   911 CALL CENTER

            HOOD CREEK COMING OUT OF ITS BANKS ONTO ROSEMONT DRIVE
            NEAR ROUTE 5.

0458 PM     FLOOD            RUSH                    38.34N  82.78W
12/16/2019                   BOYD               KY   911 CALL CENTER

            RUSH CREEK JUST COMING OUT OF BANKS ONTO ROUTE 854 IN
            SPOTS.

&&

EVENT NUMBER RLX1902170
EVENT NUMBER RLX1902171
EVENT NUMBER RLX1902172
EVENT NUMBER RLX1902173

MZ

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
533 PM EST MON DEC 16 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0530 PM     FLOOD            2 NE GILKERSON          38.22N  82.30W
12/16/2019                   WAYNE              WV   911 CALL CENTER

            FLOODING JUST BEGINNING ON BEECH FORK ROAD, ALONG BEECH
            FORK.

0530 PM     FLOOD            1 NNE SMOKY VALLEY      38.10N  82.61W
12/16/2019                   LAWRENCE           KY   911 CALL CENTER

            FLOODING ALONG OLD LICK CREEK ROAD DUE TO HIGH WATER ON
            LICK CREEK AND CLAYTON BRANCH.

&&

EVENT NUMBER RLX1902174
EVENT NUMBER RLX1902175

MZ

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