Flash Flood Warning 78, NWS Charleston, WV

115 
WGUS71 KRLX 231446
FFSRLX

Flash Flood Statement
National Weather Service Charleston WV
1046 AM EDT Fri Aug 23 2019

WVC007-015-039-067-083-087-097-101-231455-
/O.CAN.KRLX.FF.W.0078.000000T0000Z-190823T1630Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Randolph WV-Nicholas WV-Kanawha WV-Braxton WV-Upshur WV-Roane WV-
Webster WV-Clay WV-
1046 AM EDT Fri Aug 23 2019

...THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR SOUTHWESTERN RANDOLPH...NORTH CENTRAL
NICHOLAS...NORTHEASTERN KANAWHA...SOUTHERN BRAXTON...SOUTHWESTERN
UPSHUR...SOUTHEASTERN ROANE...NORTHERN WEBSTER AND CENTRAL CLAY
COUNTIES IS CANCELLED...

The heavy rain has ended. Flooding is no longer expected to pose a
threat. 
LAT...LON 3837 8154 3847 8154 3875 8045 3873 8045
      3872 8041 3873 8039 3876 8040 3881 8021
      3862 8013

$$

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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Charleston WV
639 AM EDT Fri Aug 23 2019

.SYNOPSIS...
Cold front finally exits to the south today. High pressure with
dry, cooler weather for the weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 625 AM Friday...

Showers widespread this morning, should dry out north to south
later today in a gradual manner. Some minor POP adjustments, but
the formation of the showers has continued to follow that low
level frontogenesis.

As of 235 AM Friday...

In the midst of strengthening lower level 900-800mb
frontogenesis, so expect the coverage of showers to increase
through sunrise this morning. A weak wave of surface low
pressure is keeping the forward motion of the cold front to a
minimum but should see the front clear our portion of the
mountains after 15Z. The POPs continue in the wake of the front,
however, due to a 500mb axis embedded in the very broad
cyclonic flow over the Great Lakes. Much drier air at the
surface, lower, and mid levels moves in with this wholesale
airmass change once the wave aloft passes and high pressure
builds over the Great Lakes. Lower dewpoints tonight allow for
lows to drop back into a more comfortable range after a few days
of heat across the region.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 313 AM Friday...

Mainly dry conditions are expected on Saturday due to the influence
of an expansive surface high centered in Quebec. However, can't
completely rule out a few isolated showers/storms Saturday afternoon
in extreme southeastern zones where better quality moisture and
instability is expected (dewpoints in the low/mid 60s and CAPE
around 1,000 J/kg). The greatest chance of any precipitation will be
in southwest VA where low chance PoPs are in place. Elsewhere, the
atmosphere will be very dry with surface dewpoints in the mid/upper
50s, yielding PWATs between a half inch to an inch. With high
temperatures forecast to reach the upper 70s/low 80s, fantastic
weather is expected with comfortable humidity levels.

As the aforementioned high pressure shifts east towards the Canadian
maritimes on Sunday, return flow will give temperatures a boost of a
few degrees. This should translate to highs in the low 80s across
the lowlands on Sunday afternoon, just a degree or two below normal
for this time of the year. Upper ridge axis across the Great Lakes
should provide for a mainly dry forecast once again, but some low
PoPs are included across southern areas as a cut-off low rotates
east of the area in the Mid-Atlantic region. Regardless, with little
to no instability expected and subsidence in place, most of the
region should be dry.

By Monday, upper ridge axis continues to push to the east and a
shortwave trough will move across the Midwest. This leading
shortwave trough will eventually become absorbed by a larger scale
trough emerging from the northern Plains late in the short term
period. However, the leading shortwave trough may get close enough
to our region on Monday afternoon to bring an increase in PoPs from
west to east through the day, as the GFS suggests. The ECMWF,
however, is slower with the arrival of the leading trough and thus,
holds off on most of the precip towards mainly the long term period.
For now, went with a consenus blend of models which does support
slight/chance PoPs across the region Monday afternoon into the
evening.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 313 AM Friday...

By Monday night, the aforementioned main trough axis will extend
from the Canadian Prairies southeastward into the Ohio Valley,
pushing a cold front through our region on Tuesday. This will bring
widespread showers and thunderstorms throughout the area on Tuesday.
With models projecting PWATs around 1.50-1.75 inches, heavy
downpours will be possible. There also will be some modest shear,
with models at this distance suggesting around 30 kts in the 0-6 km
layer. However, instability will be in question given the abundant
cloud cover that is expected.

Precipitation will end from west to east throughout the day on
Wednesday, with high pressure building in across the Ohio Valley.
This feature should then be in control through the remainder of the
week, keeping conditions mainly dry and seasonal through the end of
the long term period.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 620 AM Friday...

Widespread showers with isolated thunder this morning should
become less numerous from north to south as Friday progresses in
time. Until then, bouncing observations can be expected in and
out of showers. Ceilings and visibilities have been variable
since the last synoptic issuance of the TAFs a few hours ago and
this is expected to continue for a few more hours.

VFR later in the day for all sites. Fog potential to form in the
valleys is on the higher side tonight after 04Z.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: More brief IFR is possible in heavy
showers. Isolated thunder could creep in to the mix.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21
EDT 1HRLY       06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17
CRW CONSISTENCY  M    L    M    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M
HTS CONSISTENCY  L    L    L    L    L    L    H    H    H    M    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  L    M    M    H    H    H    H    L    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    H    M    H    L    M    M    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    H    M    L    M    M    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    M    M    M    H    H    H    M    M    M    H

AFTER 12Z SATURDAY...
IFR fog possible early Sunday morning.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...None.
OH...None.
KY...None.
VA...None.

&&

SYNOPSIS...26/RG
NEAR TERM...26
SHORT TERM...RG
LONG TERM...RG
AVIATION...26

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Charleston WV
432 AM EDT Fri Aug 23 2019

VAZ003-004-WVZ015-024>028-033-034-039-515>526-240845-
Dickenson-Buchanan-Kanawha-Mingo-Logan-Boone-Clay-Braxton-McDowell-
Wyoming-Upshur-Northwest Raleigh-Southeast Raleigh-Northwest Fayette-
Southeast Fayette-Northwest Nicholas-Southeast Nicholas-
Northwest Webster-Southeast Webster-Northwest Pocahontas-
Southeast Pocahontas-Northwest Randolph-Southeast Randolph-
432 AM EDT Fri Aug 23 2019

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for southwest Virginia, and
portions of central West Virginia, northeast West Virginia,
northern West Virginia, southeast West Virginia and southern West
Virginia.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight.

There is a marginal risk for excessive rainfall today. Isolated flooding
may become an issue.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Weather spotters are encouraged to report significant weather
conditions by calling the toll-free spotter hotline, or by other
methods detailed at www.weather.gov/rlx/reports.

KYZ101>103-105-OHZ066-067-075-076-083>087-WVZ005>011-013-014-016>020-
029>032-040-240845-
Greenup-Carter-Boyd-Lawrence KY-Perry-Morgan-Athens-Washington-
Jackson OH-Vinton-Meigs-Gallia-Lawrence OH-Wayne-Cabell-Mason-
Jackson WV-Wood-Pleasants-Tyler-Lincoln-Putnam-Roane-Wirt-Calhoun-
Ritchie-Doddridge-Gilmer-Lewis-Harrison-Taylor-Barbour-
432 AM EDT Fri Aug 23 2019

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for northeast Kentucky, southeast
Ohio, and portions of central West Virginia, northern West
Virginia, southern West Virginia and western West Virginia.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Weather spotters are encouraged to report significant weather
conditions by calling the toll-free spotter hotline, or by other
methods detailed at www.weather.gov/rlx/reports.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Charleston WV
900 AM EDT Fri Aug 23 2019

WVZ015-016-027-231400-
Clay-Roane-Kanawha-
900 AM EDT Fri Aug 23 2019

...HEAVY RAIN WILL AFFECT NORTHERN KANAWHA... SOUTHEASTERN ROANE AND
CENTRAL CLAY COUNTIES...

At 855 AM EDT, Torrential downpours were clustered near Pinch, or
near Charleston, moving east at 30 mph. Rainfall amounts to 2 inches
can be expected over the next hour, with locally higher
amounts possible.

Locations impacted include...
Charleston, Nitro, Clay, Jefferson, South Charleston, St. Albans,
Dunbar, Sissonville, Clendenin, Cross Lanes, Pinch, Institute,
Tornado, and Elkview.

Excessive runoff from heavy rainfall will cause ponding of water in
urban areas, highways, streets and underpasses, as well as other
poor drainage areas and low lying spots.

Do not drive your vehicle into areas where the water covers the
roadway. The water depth may be too great to allow your car to cross
safely. Move to higher ground.

LAT...LON 3842 8187 3861 8098 3846 8087 3831 8182
      3832 8182 3831 8185 3832 8190 3840 8190
TIME...MOT...LOC 1255Z 257DEG 29KT 3841 8155

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