Severe Thunderstorm Warning 5, NWS Reno, NV

690 
WWUS55 KREV 282301
SVSREV

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Reno NV
401 PM PDT Wed Aug 28 2019

CAC035-282309-
/O.CAN.KREV.SV.W.0005.000000T0000Z-190828T2315Z/
Lassen CA-
401 PM PDT Wed Aug 28 2019

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR EAST CENTRAL LASSEN COUNTY IS
CANCELLED...
                
The storm which prompted the warning has weakened below severe
limits, and no longer poses an immediate threat to life or property.
Therefore, the warning has been cancelled.  However gusty winds 
and heavy rain are still possible with this thunderstorm.

LAT...LON 4056 12035 4043 12000 4031 12000 4017 12023
      4024 12040
TIME...MOT...LOC 2256Z 209DEG 5KT 4030 12024 

$$

-Zach

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Reno NV
140 PM PDT Wed Aug 28 2019

.SYNOPSIS...
Isolated to scattered thunderstorms this evening could bring
strong outflow winds and localized heavy rainfall along with a few
fire starts. Dry conditions return Thursday with breezy
conditions. It will be very dry this weekend with typical
afternoon winds. Temperatures will remain above average through
the weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Few changes were made to the going forecast with thunderstorms
still expected this afternoon and evening. The HREF overall has
backed off on the potential, but not enough to change the overall
ideas. The main concerns will continue to be potential fire starts
along with gusty outflow winds and brief heavy rainfall.

The flow turns more southwest tomorrow behind the wave with stable
conditions and some breezy afternoon and evening winds. It gets
very dry this weekend, but winds will only be of the typical
afternoon variety. Temperatures will remain above average but
still a few degrees cooler than the past couple days. Generally
low-mid 90s Western NV and low 80s Sierra valleys.

Next week is a bit of a mess. Ensembles show widely varying
solutions with no preferred outcome. What we do know is that an
upper low will be off the Pacific Northwest coast and move inland
by mid week. The timing and depth of this trough moving through
has impacts on the temps, wind and precip potential. Complicating
matters is an inverted trough that will round the Four Corners
High Monday-Tuesday, and move north which could introduce deep
monsoon moisture.

For now, we will continue with the ensemble means and show some
increase in winds and a minor cooldown back closer to average for
early September. We are keeping it dry, with no precip from either
the upper low (north) or the monsoon (staying east). Given the
wide spread in the ensemble solutions, the forecast could change
significantly over the next 2-3 days. X

&&

.AVIATION...
Potential TSRA today, with gusts to 45 kts, small hail and brief
heavy rain the main threats. That said, the potential for any
storms to affect the forecast terminals is 10-15% or less, and
mainly for the Sierra Front terminals and KMMH. Most are expected
to develop east of Highway 395 and continue to move east into
Nevada.

Dry for Thursday with some gusty afternoon SW winds 20-03Z up to
25 kts. Lighter, more typical afternoon winds for Friday and the
weekend with peak gusts 15-20 kts at area terminals. X

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

Weak capping aloft has held thunderstorms at bay for much of the
early afternoon. Latest radar and satellite is showing a couple
cells beginning to break through the weak stable layer. Meanwhile,
higher resolution models have scaled down convection a little over
what they were showing during previous runs. We're still expecting
isolated showers and thunderstorms mainly south of Interstate 80
along the front ranges of the Sierra. Best chances remain over the
Sweetwaters in the vicinity of the Mono/Mineral County line to the
Pine Nuts early this afternoon and later along the Virginia Range
and Desatoya Range. An intstability axis is evident in Lassen County
through northern Washoe County; expect some thunderstorm activity
this afternoon and evening. No major adjustments were made to the
previous forecast.

The rest of the forecast will be concerned with increasing winds,
gusts generally 20-30 mph for Thursday afternoon then a large dry
slot Thursday night through the weekend. Any fires that might occur
could begin to move and be sustained in these conditions. Winds do
return to more typical speeds, gusts 20-25 mph, for the afternoons
over the weekend. Temperatures remain a little above seasonal
averages, but will cool to within a few degrees of normal Thursday
through the weekend.

Models are still waffling with what to do for early next week. Some
single deterministic runs favor a strong upper low to move into the
region whereas others showing ridging. Ensembles do favor some type
of troughing so it would be reasonable to see some cooling for early
next week and possibly an increase in winds. Unfortunately,
certainty is too low to hang your hat on an forecast at this time.
That said, winds were increased marginally for Tuesday to above
typical speeds; this was the best guess for the highest potential of
critical conditions for early next week at this time. Boyd

&&

.REV Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NV...Red Flag Warning until 8 PM PDT this evening NVZ450-458-459.

CA...Red Flag Warning until 8 PM PDT this evening CAZ270-273-278.

&&

For more information from the National Weather Service visit...
http://weather.gov/reno

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Reno NV
329 PM PDT Wed Aug 28 2019

CAZ071-282300-
Lassen-Eastern Plumas-Eastern Sierra Counties CA-
329 PM PDT Wed Aug 28 2019

...Strong Thunderstorm over Honey Lake...

At 325 PM PDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 9
miles northwest of Herlong, moving northeast at 5 mph.

Nickel size hail and wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with
this storm, including along US 395.

Locations impacted include...
Honey Lake, Wendel and Amedee Army Airfield.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If on or near Honey lake, get out of the water and move indoors or
inside a vehicle now. Don't be caught on the water in a
thunderstorm. Strong wind gusts and lightning pose an immediate
danger.

&&

LAT...LON 4009 12030 4028 12047 4055 12026 4028 12000
TIME...MOT...LOC 2225Z 211DEG 5KT 4022 12028

ZT