Special Weather Statement, NWS Raleigh, NC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
738 PM EDT Tue Jun 18 2019

.SYNOPSIS...
A moist and unstable air mass coupled with a series of upper level
disturbances will trigger periods of scattered showers and
thunderstorms through Wednesday night. A much stronger disturbance
aloft and associated cold front will cross our region Thursday and
Thursday night.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 335 PM Tuesday...

Flash Flood Watch remains in effect through tonight for Guilford and
Forsyth counties.

Little change from earlier thinking. The greatest coverage of
convective activity will remain along a low level confluence zone in
the 925-850mb located in vicinity of the NC/VA border. While the
showers and storms will lose a bit of their intensity with the
setting of the sun this evening, the approach of a minor s/w, seen
on water vapor imagery lifting east-northeast across the Deep South,
will provide enough lift to sustain scattered convection well into
the overnight hours. Due to this continued threat for convection,
will maintain the current watch for the Winston-Salem/Greensboro
areas but refrain from expanding in areal coverage at this time.

To the south and southeast of Raleigh, the presence of a minor s/w
ridge axis will limit convection to just the incursion of the
seabreeze into our southeast counties. But even there, coverage
should be limited to isolated/widely scattered.

Overnight temperatures near 70 to the lower 70s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 350 PM Tuesday...

The aforementioned s/w approaching from the Deep South will traverse
central NC Wednesday morning-early afternoon. The presence of this
feature interacting with the abundantly moist and conditionally
unstable air mass will support/sustain a few showers and a t-storm
or two Wednesday morning, mainly along and west of highway 1.

Later in the day, a differential heating boundary (a result of the
extensive cloudiness and scattered convection over the Piedmont)
will likely support scattered convection Wednesday afternoon,
basically along and east of highway 1. While the atmosphere is
projected to be moderately unstable, it will remain weakly sheared.
Thus, bulk of the convection will remain below severe criteria.

The extensive cloudiness to start the day, and the prospect for
scattered convection throughout the day, anticipate temperatures to
be a tad cooler than normal for most of the region. Will forecast
highs Wednesday in the mid-upper 80s. If the clouds are thick
through mid afternoon across the western Piedmont, could see max
temps no higher than the lower 80s.

The mid level disturbance will depart our region by late afternoon.
Weak subsidence in its wake should limit/inhibit convective develop
once the sun has set. This should may lead to partial clearing
overnight and the possible formation of patchy fog toward early Thu
morning. Overnight temperatures near 70 to the lower 70s.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 350 PM Tuesday...

Multiple disturbances within a shear axis over the Western US will
move east to the OH Valley by Thursday morning and then across the
Mid-Atlantic States Thursday afternoon, with modest forcing for
accent from 30-60m height falls aloft across the NC/VA border. With
increasing instability owing to highs in the upper 80s to lower 90s
increasing, steepening mid-level lapse rates to near -7 C/km and and
surface dewpoints near 70 or greater, the downstream environment
should be ripe for convection. A 40-50kt mid-level speed max
accompanying the shortwave will certainly enhance deep layer shear
at 30-35kt and support organization of convection once its
initiated.  Forcing and instability overlap suggest best coverage
north of US-64 at the moment.

Convection and the effective front look to moves east of the area
after midnight, with a return flow again develops through the weekend
and a more stable environment briefly over the area on Friday before
the heat and humidity return through early next week. Mid/upper
level ridging over the east central us would support an MCS track
toward VA and northern NC by Sunday/Monday, albeit with low
confidence timing.  Models then indicate the ridge axis shift east
over NC and weakening as a system list to the Great Lakes, though
this appears a bit aggressive for the season and pattern, so will
stick with continued upper 80s and lower 90s through the period.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 735 PM Tuesday...

24 hour TAF period: Scattered showers and thunderstorms will
continue this evening and into a good part of tonight. Heavy rain
will result in reduced visibilities and lowering cigs. Strong gusty
winds will also accompany stronger thunderstorms. All terminals will
have the threat of rain/storms through tonight, while KRDU, KRWI and
KFAY have yet to get hit today. Some sub-vfr fog and low stratus
will be possible overnight, with the greatest coverage coincident
with where rain fell this afternoon and over the next several hours.
Given that showers and storms are possible at all terminals, have
included mention everywhere, though for now best chances will be at
KINT and KGSO, lowest chance right now would be at KFAY. Any
fog/stratus should slowly lift after sunrise Wednesday, though a few
lingering MVFR cigs are possible into the late morning/early
afternoon. -KC

Looking ahead: The threat for convection and adverse aviation
parameters will continue Thursday into Thursday night with the
approach and passage of a cold front. Improved aviation conditions
anticipated Friday through Saturday as a slightly drier stable air
mass settles over the area. A moistening atmosphere will lead to the
probability of early morning/fog and low clouds by Sunday along with
a threat for afternoon-early evening convection. -WSS

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flash Flood Watch through late tonight for NCZ021-022.

&&

SYNOPSIS...MWS
NEAR TERM...WSS
SHORT TERM...WSS
LONG TERM...BLS
AVIATION...KC/WSS

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
401 PM EDT Tue Jun 18 2019

NCZ021-022-191000-
Forsyth-Guilford-
401 PM EDT Tue Jun 18 2019

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT THROUGH LATE TONIGHT...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central North Carolina.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Flash Flood Watch.

Additionally, thunderstorms through early this evening will be
capable of producing wind gusts up to 45 mph and hail to the size of
quarters.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday.

Strong to severe thunderstorms will be possible Thursday afternoon
into evening as a potent upper level system approaches from the
west. Locally damaging wind gusts and hail will be the primary
threats.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

NCZ007>011-023>027-038>041-191000-
Person-Granville-Vance-Warren-Halifax-Alamance-Orange-Durham-
Franklin-Nash-Davidson-Randolph-Chatham-Wake-
401 PM EDT Tue Jun 18 2019

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central North Carolina.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

Scattered thunderstorms through early this evening will be capable
of producing wind gusts up to 50 mph and hail to the size of
quarters. Additionally, locally heavy rain and flooding may result if
storms regenerate and track over the same areas tonight.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday.

Strong to severe thunderstorms will be possible Thursday afternoon
into evening as a potent upper level system approaches from the
west. Locally damaging wind gusts and hail will be the primary
threats.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

NCZ028-042-043-073>078-083>086-088-089-191000-
Edgecombe-Johnston-Wilson-Stanly-Montgomery-Moore-Lee-Harnett-Wayne-
Anson-Richmond-Scotland-Hoke-Cumberland-Sampson-
401 PM EDT Tue Jun 18 2019

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central North Carolina.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

Hazardous weather is not expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday.

Strong to severe thunderstorms will be possible Thursday afternoon
into evening as a potent upper level system approaches from the
west. Locally damaging wind gusts and hail will be the primary
threats.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
720 PM EDT Tue Jun 18 2019

NCZ011-028-190015-
Edgecombe NC-Halifax NC-
720 PM EDT Tue Jun 18 2019

...AN AREA OF SHOWERS AND STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT EDGECOMBE
AND SOUTHEASTERN HALIFAX COUNTIES UNTIL 815 PM EDT...

At 720 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking an area of showers and
strong thunderstorms 7 miles south of Tarboro, moving north at 25
mph.

Wind gusts up to 40 mph will be possible with this storm.

Heavy rain and minor flooding and deadly cloud to ground lightning
will also be possible with this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Tarboro, Scotland Neck, Princeville, Pinetops, Macclesfield, Hobgood,
Conetoe, Speed, Leggett and Kingsboro.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Seek shelter in a nearby building or vehicle. Wind gusts as high as
40 mph are capable of knocking down tree limbs and blowing around
trash cans, potted plants, lawn furniture and other light outdoor
objects.

Locally heavy rain will quickly reduce visibility and result in
ponding of water on roadways, standing water in low lying areas, and
minor flooding of creeks, streams, and areas of poor drainage.
Drivers are urged to slow down and use extra caution to avoid
hydroplaning, especially in urban areas where prolonged heavy rain
can quickly lead to flooding.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

&&

LAT...LON 3609 7731 3600 7741 3591 7734 3580 7743
      3580 7747 3576 7752 3568 7766 3573 7772
      3579 7774 3627 7758 3619 7733 3617 7731
      3616 7726 3612 7724 3612 7725 3610 7723
TIME...MOT...LOC 2320Z 201DEG 20KT 3581 7759

77

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
723 PM EDT Tue Jun 18 2019

NCZ007-023-024-190015-
Alamance NC-Person NC-Orange NC-
723 PM EDT Tue Jun 18 2019

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT NORTHEASTERN ALAMANCE...
SOUTHWESTERN PERSON AND NORTHWESTERN ORANGE COUNTIES UNTIL 815 PM
EDT...

At 723 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Prospect Hill, moving northeast at 20 mph.

Wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with this storm.

Heavy rain and minor flooding and deadly cloud to ground lightning
will also be possible with this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Roxboro, Carr, Hyco Marina, Bushy Fork and Hyco Lake.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Seek shelter in a nearby building or vehicle. Wind gusts as high as
50 mph are capable of knocking down small or weakened trees and
blowing around trash cans, potted plants, lawn furniture and other
light outdoor objects.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

Doppler radar has indicated weak rotation with this storm. If the
storm intensifies and rotation strengthens, a warning may need to be
issued.

&&

LAT...LON 3637 7892 3615 7925 3621 7937 3625 7935
      3624 7915 3629 7915 3649 7914
TIME...MOT...LOC 2323Z 213DEG 15KT 3621 7926

77

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
728 PM EDT Tue Jun 18 2019

NCZ021-190030-
Forsyth NC-
728 PM EDT Tue Jun 18 2019

...A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT FORSYTH COUNTY UNTIL
830 PM EDT...

At 727 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a line of strong
thunderstorms along a line extending from near Enon to near
Mocksville. Movement was northeast at 20 mph.

Wind gusts up to 40 mph will be possible with these storms.

Heavy rain and minor flooding and deadly cloud to ground lightning
will also be possible with these storms.

Locations impacted include...
Winston-Salem, Clemmons, Bermuda Run, Huntsville, Lewisville,
Walkertown, Rural Hall, Stanleyville, Pfafftown and Donnaha.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Seek shelter in a nearby building or vehicle. Wind gusts as high as
40 mph are capable of knocking down tree limbs and blowing around
trash cans, potted plants, lawn furniture and other light outdoor
objects.

Locally heavy rain will quickly reduce visibility and result in
ponding of water on roadways, standing water in low lying areas, and
minor flooding of creeks, streams, and areas of poor drainage.
Drivers are urged to slow down and use extra caution to avoid
hydroplaning, especially in urban areas where prolonged heavy rain
can quickly lead to flooding.

Cloud to ground lightning is occurring with these storms.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

&&

LAT...LON 3611 8051 3612 8046 3614 8044 3621 8045
      3622 8043 3624 8045 3626 8045 3626 8010
      3603 8016 3603 8021 3600 8022 3600 8032
      3597 8040 3599 8042 3601 8042 3606 8046
      3604 8049 3605 8051 3609 8052
TIME...MOT...LOC 2327Z 228DEG 16KT 3617 8042 3596 8052

77

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
746 PM EDT Tue Jun 18 2019

NCZ073-074-083-084-190045-
Stanly NC-Anson NC-Richmond NC-Montgomery NC-
746 PM EDT Tue Jun 18 2019

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT NORTHWESTERN ANSON...
MONTGOMERY...NORTHWESTERN RICHMOND AND STANLY COUNTIES UNTIL 845 PM
EDT...

At 746 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Marshville, or 11 miles west of Wadesboro, moving northeast at 25
mph.

Wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with this storm.

Heavy rain and minor flooding and deadly cloud to ground lightning
will also be possible with this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Albemarle, Wadesboro, Troy, Badin Lake, Biscoe, Ansonville, Plyler,
Sturdivants, Polkton and Norwood.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Seek shelter in a nearby building or vehicle. Wind gusts as high as
50 mph are capable of knocking down small or weakened trees and
blowing around trash cans, potted plants, lawn furniture and other
light outdoor objects.

Locally heavy rain will quickly reduce visibility and result in
ponding of water on roadways, standing water in low lying areas, and
minor flooding of creeks, streams, and areas of poor drainage.
Drivers are urged to slow down and use extra caution to avoid
hydroplaning, especially in urban areas where prolonged heavy rain
can quickly lead to flooding.

Cloud to ground lightning is occurring with these storms.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

&&

LAT...LON 3550 8025 3550 7998 3547 7980 3538 7973
      3483 8018 3485 8031 3486 8032 3520 8028
      3520 8030 3518 8031 3517 8035 3518 8037
      3517 8040
TIME...MOT...LOC 2346Z 213DEG 23KT 3502 8027

77

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