Severe Thunderstorm Warning 84, NWS Raleigh, NC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
747 PM EDT Fri May 31 2019

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front and upper level trough will move across central NC
tonight and reach the coast Saturday afternoon. A second cold
front will move through the area on Sunday and Sunday night.
High pressure will build into the region on Monday through
Tuesday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
As of 340 PM Friday...

...Severe thunderstorm watch number 300 is in effect until 03Z across
all of central NC...

This afternoon and evening will feature the most convectively day we
have seen in several weeks and likely the best chance of rain for
the next 6 days.

Latest surface analysis shows a cold front extending across the
northern Chesapeake Bay west into the Blue Ridge of VA and south
across the eastern slopes of the Appalachians. A prominent surface
trough extends from near Sanford east to near Goldsboro and
Greenville. North of the trough surface winds have become northerly
with surface dew points in the lower 60s. South of the trough, winds
are southwesterly and gusty with dew points in the mid to upper 60s.

A vigorous shortwave trough with 50+kts of flow at 500 hPa was
moving across the southern Appalachians this afternoon. This strong
after vortex will move east reaching the VA and NC coast after
daybreak on Saturday. This feature will provide ample forcing for
ascent and will lead to the continued development of scattered to
numerous showers and thunderstorms across the area this afternoon
and tonight. Deep convection developed near the surface boundary in
the Coastal Plain and has moved east. Other scattered storms are
developing across in a region of local convergence across northeast
SC and south and east of KFAY. Finally, additional convection across
western NC will push east into the western Piedmont over the next
few hours. With time, individual storms will tend to grow upscale
and congeal into multicells and cluster as they sweep east at 30
MPH. The best chance of storms across the Triad will be from 3 to 8
PM, the Triangle from 5 to 9 PM with multiple rounds of storms
possible across the Sandhills and Coastal Plain, the first one from
3 to 6 PM and another later this evening.

A severe thunderstorm watch is in effect across the area through 11
pm. MLCAPE values will range between 1000-2000 J/Kg this afternoon
with tepid mid level lapse rates becoming more favorable as the
upper trough approaches. These conditions combined with 0-6km bulk
shear values of 35-45 kts will support some organized convection and
perhaps a supercell or two. The wind field is unidirectional with a
tendency for straight hodographs which could lead to splitting
supercells. HREF guidance shows fairly high neighborhood
probabilities of elevated updraft helicity and updraft strength this
afternoon and evening. Both large hail and strong straight line
winds appear to be the main threats, with a trend toward an
increasing wind dominance as the storms grow into clusters. While
the low level wind profile is not terribly favorable and LCL heights
are high, the presence of the E-W surface trough could provide
enough localized shear to support a remote tornado threat. The
widespread and intense convection will push east this evening and
should largely be out of the CWA by midnight. As the upper trough
lags, an isolated shower or storm is still possible overnight,
especially in the eastern Piedmont and Coastal Plain. Lows will drop
back into the 60s in most locations. -Blaes &&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
As of 240 PM Friday...

The threat for scattered showers and a few thunderstorms will
continue Saturday as a lobe of vorticity rotates southward through
central NC. While scattered showers will likely be ongoing Saturday
morning across the far northern counties, as the atmosphere
destabilizes after 15Z, anticipate a few thunderstorms to develop,
especially along and south of highway 64. While the atmosphere will
have sufficient instability to support/sustain thunderstorms, the
shear is anticipated to be much weaker than this afternoon. Thus,
strong/severe storms not expected at this time. Bulk of scattered
convection will dissipate with loss of heating.

A mixture of sun and clouds and a light nly low level wind will
prevent temperatures from becoming too hot. Anticipate enough
cloudiness in the morning to deter heating a bit, resulting in high
temperatures from the low-mid 80s north to the upper 80s south. If
sunshine is more abundant in the morning, then highs may end up 2-3
degrees warmer than forecast. Lows Saturday night in the low-mid 60s.

A sfc cold front will approach central NC from the west northwest
Sunday, and cross our region Sunday night. The front will approach
at a time when the atmosphere will become slightly unstable. Thus,
expect a threat for a few showers and possibly a thunderstorm Sunday
afternoon-early Sunday evening. A westerly low level flow ahead of
the front will limit moisture advection and inhibit convective
development ahead of the front. Currently expect convective coverage
to be no worse than isolated to scattered, mostly north of highway
64. This same westerly flow will help to boost afternoon
temperatures well into the 80s with lower 90s probable across the
south. The frontal passage Sunday night will be noted by sfc winds
veering to a nwly direction. This flow will advect a notably cooler
and drier air mass into the region overnight. By early Monday,
expect temperatures to vary from around 60 NW to the mid-upper 60s
SE.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 255 PM Friday...

A drier, more stable air mass will settle over central NC Monday
into Tuesday as sfc high pressure builds into central NC from the
northwest. This will translate to temperatures near or slightly
below normal, with highs Monday and Tuesday ranging from near 80
north to the low-mid 80s south. Quite comfortable Monday night, with
overnight temperatures in the 50s, and 60 to 65  Tuesday night.

The area of high pressure will shift offshore by mid-week,
initiating a return flow regime into central NC. This will advect a
warm moist air mass back into our region. Aloft, a series of
perturbations will approach in the wly flow. The perturbations in
tandem with the increasingly moist atmosphere suggest a threat for
scattered showers/storms, beginning Wednesday, and persisting
through the remainder of the work week. Temperatures through the
period will average a couple of degrees above normal, generally in
the 85-90 degree range.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 745 PM Friday...

Severe thunderstorm watch number 300 is in effect until 03Z across
all of central NC.

24 hour TAF period: Strong to severe thunderstorms continue to
impact central NC. KINT and KGSO are likely out of the woods at this
time, aside from some lingering light rain. KRDU and KRWI are most
significantly impacted and will continue to be for the next couple
to several hours. The thunderstorms will be accompanied by strong
winds, frequent lightning and hail. Visibilities will likely be
reduced to 1SM or less with broken towering cu bases around 4 kft.
Storms are very deep, with tops around 40 kft. KFAY may also get
some thunderstorm activity during the next few hours, though
coverage across the southern portions of central NC is less. If they
do occur the same conditions highlighted above would apply there as
well. -KC

Looking ahead: VFR conditions should return on Saturday and continue
into Saturday night as drier air moves into the region. An upper
level disturbance and cold front will move across the area on Sunday
and Sunday night producing a few showers and perhaps a storm. Fair
weather with VFR conditions are expected for Monday and Tuesday
before the next weather system approaches on Wednesday. -Blaes

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

SYNOPSIS...Blaes
NEAR TERM...Blaes
SHORT TERM...WSS
LONG TERM...WSS
AVIATION...KC/Blaes

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
756 PM EDT Fri May 31 2019

NCZ008>011-025>028-040>043-075>078-084>086-088-089-020000-
Granville-Vance-Warren-Halifax-Durham-Franklin-Nash-Edgecombe-
Chatham-Wake-Johnston-Wilson-Moore-Lee-Harnett-Wayne-Richmond-
Scotland-Hoke-Cumberland-Sampson-
756 PM EDT Fri May 31 2019

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 300 IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central North Carolina.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Severe Thunderstorm Watch.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday.

Hazardous weather is not expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will likely be needed.

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
811 PM EDT FRI MAY 31 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0625 PM     HAIL             3 SSE GLENVIEW          36.13N 77.80W
05/31/2019  E1.00 INCH       NASH               NC   PUBLIC

            HAIL ON NC 33.

&&