Severe Thunderstorm Warning 48, NWS Raleigh, NC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
303 PM EDT Fri Apr 26 2019

.SYNOPSIS...
A strong cold front will cross central NC this afternoon, preceded
by numerous showers and a few thunderstorms. High pressure will
build in behind the front on Saturday. This high will drift offshore
Sunday, allowing a dry cold front to cross our region late Sunday
and Sunday night.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 300 PM Friday...

An amplifying northern stream trough will take on an increasingly
negative-tilt as it pivots NE across the region this evening and
overnight. Robust 120 to 140 meter H5 falls and mid-level DCVA
overspreading the area will support a fractured band of showers and
thunderstorms across the area between 18 to 00z. The severe threat
looks increasingly less menacing due to the mixing out of sfc/BL
dewpoints into the upper 50s/lower 60s that has actually led to
less/weakening instability this afternoon when the better forcing is
moving through the area. However given the stout shear parameters,
still can't rule out an isolated strong to severe storms across the
far eastern piedmont and NE coastal plain counties, with damaging
thunderstorm wind gusts being the primary severe threat.

Matching and in some cases surpassing the 30 to 40 mph SWLY wind
gusts we saw ahead of the front will be the gusty NWLY wind gusts
expected immediately behind the surface cold front this afternoon
with an isolated gust in excess of 45 mph possible.

Bulk of convection will be exiting eastern areas at or shortly after
22z with clearing skies this evening, and cooler temperatures
overnight as a drier cooler air mass overspreads the region. Min
temperatures in the 45-50 degrees. Wind gusts will subside in the 2
to 3 hours after sunset.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT/...
As of 245 PM Friday...

In the wake of the exiting shortwave trough, a southern stream
parent high over the Deep South will build briefly across the SE US
on Saturday and will then shift off the SE US coast Saturday
evening/night in advance of progressive northern stream trough
moving east across the lower Great Lakes and Ohio Valley. Seasonable
afternoon temperatures in the 70s and surface dewpoints in the 30s
and lower 40s will result very pleasant weather conditions. Mid and
high clouds will be on the increase during the evening and overnight
hours, especially across the northern tier as increasing mid-level
WAA overspreads the area ahead of the aforementioned northern stream
trough. Sprinkles falling out of a 8 to 10 kft mid-cloud deck is
possible, but will keep the forecast dry for now. Overnight lows in
the lower to mid 50s.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 1200 PM Friday...

Very limited weather to talk about in the long term as a fairly
quiet period should preside for the next several days. Attention
will focus to the north on Sunday as a weak low pressure system
crosses the mid-Atlantic states. While this system will be moisture
starved there will be a slight chance for some brief showers,
particularly across the north on Sunday afternoon. Expect highs in
the upper 70s to low 80s with a dry cold front coming through the
area Sunday night. With mostly zonal weak flow aloft, surface high
pressure over the southwest Atlantic will keep warm southerly return
flow over the area going into early next week. Cooler on Monday
behind the front with low 70s across the north and upper 70s across
the south. Temperatures will then warm back into the 80s for the
rest of the week with dry conditions through Wednesday before slight
chances for precipitation return for the end of the week as a
frontal system lingers mainly north and west of the area.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z Friday THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 210 PM Friday...

A band of showers and thunderstorms will precede a cold frontal
passage that will cross west to east through the area between 18 to
23z.
A brief period of MVFR conditions along with convective winds gusts
of 40-50kts will be possible with the stronger storms cells.
Even outside of convection, expect intermittent strong wind gusts of
30 to 35 mph ahead(SWLY)and behind(WNWLY)the front. These gusts will
subside between 1 to 3 hours after. VFR conditions will rule
tonight and Saturday as surface high pressure builds in from the SW.
By mid to late morning, daytime heating will result in some
morning/early afternoon gustiness into the mid to upper teens before
subsiding during the afternoon.

There will be an increase in cloudiness Saturday night though it
should be mainly mid/high level clouds. The next chance for sub VFR
parameters will occur early Monday as a stalled sfc front across our
region will likely lead to moisture pooling and the possible
development of low clouds or fog. Low end VFR/MVFR ceilings will be
possible for brief instances Monday into Tuesday.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

SYNOPSIS...WSS
NEAR TERM...CBL
SHORT TERM...CBL
LONG TERM...Ellis
AVIATION...CBL/WSS

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
212 PM EDT Fri Apr 26 2019

NCZ007-023>025-040>042-075>078-084>086-088-089-271815-
Person-Alamance-Orange-Durham-Chatham-Wake-Johnston-Moore-Lee-
Harnett-Wayne-Richmond-Scotland-Hoke-Cumberland-Sampson-
212 PM EDT Fri Apr 26 2019

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central North Carolina.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

A few severe thunderstorms will be possible today between 11 AM and
6 PM. The main severe weather threat will be damaging straightline
winds.

Surface winds along and behind a front will gusts between 30 and 40
mph late this afternoon through early this evening.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday.

Hazardous weather is not expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed.

NCZ021-022-038-039-073-074-083-271815-
Forsyth-Guilford-Davidson-Randolph-Stanly-Montgomery-Anson-
212 PM EDT Fri Apr 26 2019

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central North Carolina.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

There is a low probability for widespread hazardous weather.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday.

Hazardous weather is not expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

NCZ008>011-026>028-043-271815-
Granville-Vance-Warren-Halifax-Franklin-Nash-Edgecombe-Wilson-
212 PM EDT Fri Apr 26 2019

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 106 IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central North Carolina.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Severe Thunderstorm Watch.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday.

Hazardous weather is not expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed.

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