Severe Thunderstorm Warning 236, NWS Raleigh, NC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
448 PM EDT Fri Aug 23 2019

.SYNOPSIS...
A strong cold front moving into the area will bring the threat of
strong to severe storms this afternoon and evening. The front will
push south of the region Saturday and Sunday. Much cooler and cloudy
conditions are expected this weekend as high pressure builds down
the eastern seaboard.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY AND TONIGHT/...
As of 448 PM Friday...

Strong to severe thunderstorms expected late this afternoon and
evening.

A cold front associated with an unseasonably strong positively-
tilted northern stream trough diving SE through the NE US and Mid-
Atlantic states will provide the focus for widespread showers and
storms late this afternoon through tonight.

The area of pre-frontal/warm sector convection across central NC,
that initially developed in proximity to the well defined lee side
sfc trough may support an isolated severe storm or two over the next
couple of hours. The more organized severe threat is expected to
arrive closer to the 00z/8 pm time frame with the arrival of the
cold front from the north when the low-level frontal convergence
underneath the right entrance region of a ~90 kt upper jet streak
associated with the upper trough moving through the region will
result in deep/strong ascent across the area. Precipitable waters of
2.0-2.25", MLCAPE of 2000-3000 J/Kg and a belt of strong westerlies
producing 25 to 35 kts of effective shear will support the threat
for an organized line segment or strong to severe storm cluster into
the area between 7 pm to 11 pm. Damaging thunderstorm wind gusts
will be the primary threat, especially from US Highway 64 north.
Convective intensity is expected to weaken and the severe threat
should diminish from loss of daytime heating as the convection
progresses south into central and southern portions of the forecast
area after midnight.  There are mix signals in the models on where
the best convective coverage will set-up overnight/early Saturday
morning. Will it be across the north, on the cool side of the
boundary, with elevated convection forming along the h8 trough? Or
will it be across the southern areas INVOF of the front. Raised PoPs
across the north overnight, maintaining likely PoPs across all of
central NC to account for uncertainty through daybreak.

Pockets of heavy rainfall could lead to some localized flash
flooding, especially in low-lying or poor drainage area. Average
rainfall amounts are expected to range between 1 to 2 inches.

Mins tonight will depend on how far south the cold front progresses.
But the airmass will feel noticeably cooler across the north with
lows ranging from mid 60s north to lower 70s south.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
As of 448 PM Friday...

A wedge of cooler and stable air will advect south through the day
on Saturday as the cold front progresses south into SC and GA. While
convection should remained anchored to  the front, models suggest a
a period of ana-frontal precip lingering across at least southern
portions of the forecast area INVOF of the h8 trough axis Saturday
afternoon and  evening, possibly lingering into Saturday
evening/night. This rare strong warm season CAD event will result in
near record LO-MAX temps across the northern Piedmont on Saturday
under a low overcast and potentially spotty light rain/drizzle.
Highs ranging from upper 60s/near 70 north to upper 70s/lower 80s
south. Lows Saturday night in the lower to mid 60s north to upper
60s/near 70 south.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 423 PM Friday...

The upper trough anchored over the NE CONUS will begin to slide east
into the Atlantic, allowing weak upper-level ridging to filter in
from the south. At the surface, a quasi-stationary front will remain
anchored just off the Carolina Coast with a surface high beginning
to strengthen as it builds south along the lee-side of the
Appalachians. A tropical surface wave, currently residing along the
eastern coast of Florida, is expected to slide NNE with time
interacting with the stalled coastal front. With time, it is
anticipated to migrate northeast just off the Carolina coastline as
we progress into early next week before being kicked further out to
sea by a series of mid level shortwave disturbances, which will work
to keep precipitation chances active through the remainder of the
work-week.

With CAD processes ongoing and expected to strengthen with
persistent northerly/northeasterly flow, have continued the well
below normal temperature trends as we end the weekend. Deep
convection chances, outside of some intermittent light
showers/drizzle, should remain primarily secluded south of our
zones, with only low end thunder chances expected south of US-64.

Early next week, all eyes shift toward the tropics, where the
aforementioned tropical wave just off the FL Coast has a high
likelihood (70% in 48 hours; 90% in 5 days) of gaining tropical
characteristics per the latest from NHC, and could plausibly become
a Tropical Depression later in the weekend. If it were to gather
strength as it interacts with the Gulf Stream, it would likely
assume the name of TS Dorian. While it remains too uncertain and
early to speculate on impact specifics, current guidance keeps the
potential tropical cyclone off the Mid Atlantic Coastline, far
enough offshore to limit most impacts to the eastern coast/barrier
islands. Best chance of seeing some sensible inland weather impacts
in the form of low end wind gusts and additional POPs/QPF from the
system resides along and east of I-95 in the Sunday night to Tuesday
morning time period. Will need to continue to monitor the
progression of this system, as a potential enhanced swath of
precipitation near the CAD/Tropical boundary may be present
somewhere over the eastern portion of the state. A series of mid
level shortwaves will work to introduce more widespread shower/storm
chances across the region while also ushering the cyclone further
out to sea as we progress through the middle of the work-week. This
will culminate with the passage of an upper-trough/surface front
late week with some hints at brief break in the wet pattern as we
head into next weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 245 PM Friday...

A cold front will approach from the north late this afternoon/early
evening and will move slowly south through the area overnight before
settling south of the area on Saturday. In advance of the front(18-
21z), expect isolated to scattered convection across the area.
The higher chances of storms will not arrive until the arrival of
the cold front into northern portions of the forecast area, between
23 to 03z. Strong gusty winds and IFR to LIFR conditions in heavy
rain will be possible with the stronger storms. The cold front
and accompanying area of convection will continue to push south into
southern portions of the area between 06 to 12z, impacting KFAY
during this time. At the same time, IFR to MVFR ceilings in
intermittent rain showers will develop within the low-level NELY
flow behind the front. IFR to MVFR conditions will continue through
and spread south through the day on Saturday with the better chances
of lingering precip across southern portions of the state.

Outlook: Sub-VFR conditions will linger through at least the
weekend, with some scattering to VFR most likely at KINT/KGSO by
Sunday afternoon. Sub-VFR conditions may then linger at times all
the way through early to mid next week, as a prevailing moist
easterly flow is maintained near the surface to 3k feet.

&&

.Climate...

8/24   REC
       LO
       MAX   YR

 GSO   74   1985
 RDU   71   1923
 FAY   70   1923 &&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

SYNOPSIS...Badgett/MWS
NEAR TERM...CBL
SHORT TERM...CBL
LONG TERM...JJM
AVIATION...Badgett/MWS
CLIMATE...RAH

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
335 PM EDT Fri Aug 23 2019

NCZ038>040-042-073>078-083>086-088-089-241945-
Davidson-Randolph-Chatham-Johnston-Stanly-Montgomery-Moore-Lee-
Harnett-Wayne-Anson-Richmond-Scotland-Hoke-Cumberland-Sampson-
335 PM EDT Fri Aug 23 2019

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central North Carolina.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

Thunderstorms will become numerous this afternoon and tonight.
Some of the storms may become severe with the primary hazard of
damaging wind. In addition, locally heavy rain in excess of 2 inches
in a hour may produce urban or small stream flooding.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday.

Hazardous weather is not expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed.

NCZ007>011-021>028-041-043-241945-
Person-Granville-Vance-Warren-Halifax-Forsyth-Guilford-Alamance-
Orange-Durham-Franklin-Nash-Edgecombe-Wake-Wilson-
335 PM EDT Fri Aug 23 2019

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 612 IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central North Carolina.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Severe Thunderstorm Watch.

Thunderstorms will become numerous this afternoon and evening. Some
of the storms may become severe with the primary hazard of damaging
wind. The greatest severe threat will occur between 600 PM and 1000
PM.

In addition, locally heavy rain in excess of 2 inches in a hour may
produce urban or small stream flooding.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday.

Hazardous weather is not expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
206 PM EDT Fri Aug 23 2019

NCZ041-042-077-231900-
Johnston NC-Harnett NC-Wake NC-
206 PM EDT Fri Aug 23 2019

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT NORTHEASTERN HARNETT...
SOUTHWESTERN WAKE AND WEST CENTRAL JOHNSTON COUNTIES UNTIL 300 PM
EDT...

At 205 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Angier, or near Lillington, moving northeast at 20 mph.

Wind gusts up to 40 mph will be possible with this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Cary, Smithfield, Lillington, Garner, Fuquay-Varina, Clayton, Angier,
Holly Springs, Coats and Lake Wheeler.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Seek shelter in a nearby building or vehicle. Wind gusts as high as
40 mph are capable of knocking down tree limbs and blowing around
light outdoor objects.

&&

LAT...LON 3535 7883 3548 7901 3572 7878 3574 7857
      3552 7832
TIME...MOT...LOC 1805Z 241DEG 19KT 3549 7884

10

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
315 PM EDT Fri Aug 23 2019

NCZ042-077-078-085-086-088-089-232015-
Scotland NC-Johnston NC-Sampson NC-Hoke NC-Harnett NC-Wayne NC-
Cumberland NC-
315 PM EDT Fri Aug 23 2019

...A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT SCOTLAND...CENTRAL
WAYNE...NORTHERN SAMPSON...SOUTHEASTERN HARNETT...CUMBERLAND...
JOHNSTON AND HOKE COUNTIES UNTIL 415 PM EDT...

At 313 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a line of strong
thunderstorms along a line extending from Smithfield to Godwin to
near Maxton. This includes I-95 between Selma and Fayetteville.
Movement was northeast at 15 mph.

Wind gusts up to 40 mph will be possible with these storms.

Locations impacted include...
Fayetteville, Goldsboro, Laurinburg, Smithfield, Raeford, Fort Bragg,
Dunn, Benson, Maxton and Fremont.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Seek shelter in a nearby building or vehicle. Wind gusts as high as
40 mph are capable of knocking down tree limbs and blowing around
light outdoor objects.

Locally heavy rain will quickly reduce visibility and result in
ponding of water on roadways and minor flooding of areas of poor
drainage. Drivers are urged to slow down and use extra caution to
avoid hydroplaning.

&&

LAT...LON 3481 7968 3482 7962 3519 7909 3573 7821
      3570 7816 3560 7812 3558 7789 3519 7816
      3485 7877 3483 7890 3490 7894 3495 7904
      3483 7919 3484 7935 3477 7933 3463 7946
TIME...MOT...LOC 1913Z 219DEG 14KT 3553 7837 3521 7870 3479 7936

10

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
416 PM EDT Fri Aug 23 2019

NCZ027-028-042-043-077-078-088-089-232115-
Edgecombe NC-Nash NC-Johnston NC-Sampson NC-Harnett NC-Wayne NC-
Cumberland NC-Wilson NC-
416 PM EDT Fri Aug 23 2019

...A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT WAYNE...CENTRAL NASH...
SAMPSON...SOUTHEASTERN HARNETT...EDGECOMBE...CUMBERLAND...WILSON AND
JOHNSTON COUNTIES UNTIL 515 PM EDT...

At 415 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a line of strong
thunderstorms along a line extending from 6 miles northeast of Rocky
Mount to 7 miles west of Goldsboro to 13 miles south of Godwin.
Movement was east at 30 mph.

Wind gusts up to 40 mph will be possible with these storms.

Locations impacted include...
Fayetteville, Rocky Mount, Goldsboro, Tarboro, Smithfield, Clinton,
Nashville, Lillington, Fort Bragg and Wilson.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Seek shelter in a nearby building or vehicle. Wind gusts as high as
40 mph are capable of knocking down tree limbs and blowing around
light outdoor objects.

Locally heavy rain will quickly reduce visibility and result in
ponding of water on roadways and minor flooding of areas of poor
drainage. Drivers are urged to slow down and use extra caution to
avoid hydroplaning.

&&

A severe thunderstorm watch remains in effect until 1000 PM EDT for
central North Carolina.

LAT...LON 3582 7735 3580 7747 3557 7782 3518 7783
      3515 7790 3519 7802 3519 7816 3485 7816
      3483 7890 3504 7909 3519 7910 3613 7777
      3614 7765 3604 7753 3600 7741 3590 7734
TIME...MOT...LOC 2015Z 262DEG 28KT 3599 7769 3537 7811 3503 7865

10

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
421 PM EDT Fri Aug 23 2019

NCZ041-232115-
Wake NC-
421 PM EDT Fri Aug 23 2019

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT CENTRAL WAKE COUNTY UNTIL 515 PM
EDT...

At 419 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a line of strong
thunderstorms from Raleigh eastward to north of Wendell, moving east
at 10 mph.

Wind gusts up to 40 mph will be possible with these storms.

Heavy rain and minor flooding will also be possible.

Locations impacted include...
Raleigh, Cary, Garner, Zebulon, Knightdale, Wendell, Rolesville, Lake
Wheeler, Lake Benson and William B Umstead State Park.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Seek shelter in a nearby building or vehicle. Wind gusts as high as
40 mph are capable of knocking down tree limbs and blowing around
light outdoor objects.

Locally heavy rain will quickly reduce visibility and result in
ponding of water on roadways and minor flooding of areas of poor
drainage. Drivers are urged to slow down and use extra caution to
avoid hydroplaning.

&&

A severe thunderstorm watch remains in effect until 1000 PM EDT for
central North Carolina.

LAT...LON 3594 7839 3593 7836 3591 7835 3590 7833
      3590 7831 3586 7828 3583 7825 3582 7826
      3572 7843 3571 7847 3565 7854 3573 7880
      3588 7872 3595 7840
TIME...MOT...LOC 2019Z 270DEG 8KT 3581 7870

10

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