Winter Storm Watch 2, NWS Pueblo, CO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
1048 AM MST Fri Feb 1 2019

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 352 AM MST Fri Feb 1 2019

Currently...

Skies were clear across the region at 3am. Temps across the region
varied considerably, as 30 to near 40 were noted just east of the
mtns while temps were below zero in the San Luis and Gunnison
Valleys. Temps were relatively warm aloft as Wolf Creek was 23 and
Alamosa was -8F.

Today and Tonight...

With mid level ridge building over to the north of Colorado and a
trough to our south, flow aloft over the state will be relatively
weak during this period. Given this pattern, synoptic forcing will
be weak. Likewise, except for some cirrus over the southern
sections, skies will be clear across the region during the next 24
hours. Max temps today will generally be 55 to 60F across the plains
while the SLV will be in the upper 20s to lower 30s. Mins tonight
will be in the 20s across the plains, except near 30 just east of
the mtns. The SLV should get cold again with clear skies, and
negative single digits will be likely.

Some fog will be possible over the San Luis Valley early this AM and
tomorrow morning. Believe fog will be a bit more widespread tomorrow
morning as SLV should see temps nearing freezing and this should
allow for some moisture to get into the boundary layer this
afternoon, increasing the chance of fog over the SLV tonight.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday)
Issued at 352 AM MST Fri Feb 1 2019

Models in general agreement through the first half of the extended
period with large ensemble spreads by next week. This leads to
lower forecast confidence in the later half of the extended
period.

Saturday...transient upper level ridging is forecast to move
across Colorado on Saturday ahead of an approaching upper level
low. Modest westerly flow aloft should allow for afternoon mixing
with breezy conditions expected along the lee slopes of the
Eastern Mountains. Dry conditions are expected to prevail through
much of the day with possibly isolated snow showers late in the
day along the Continental Divide. Afternoon highs will top out in
the lower to mid 60s across the Plains, while the San Luis Valley
remains in the 20s to 30s.

Sunday...an upper level storm system is forecast to move across
the region on Sunday. The main concern will be potential for high
winds along the lee slopes of the Eastern Mountains as the base of
the upper trough passes overhead. Morning temperatures will likely
remain warm along the mid slopes with mid to upper 40s Sunday
morning. As we move through the day, the threat for strong winds
will increase. Model guidance suggests the time period of strong
winds will be during the late morning to mid afternoon, especially
for areas south of Canon City to near Trinidad. West winds,
gusting has high was 55 mph will be possible, primarily in wind
prone gap areas. As you move further east away from the mountains,
winds will remain gusty, with gusts near 35 mph expected. The
strong winds and afternoon mixing will help temperatures rise into
the upper 60s across the region, with perhaps a few lower 70s
possible. Snow will continue along the Continental Divide on
Sunday, where 2 to 5 inches are likely. Higher amounts are
expected over the San Juan mountains where 4 to 7 inches are
expected.

Monday into Tuesday...the upper level system will shift northeast
away from the area on Monday with broad west to southwesterly flow
continuing across the region. Periods of light to moderate snow
will likely continue along the Continental Divide both days with
minor accumulations expected. Otherwise dry conditions will
prevail across the Eastern Plains where afternoon highs will top
out in the mid to upper 50s both days.

Wednesday through Friday...models diverge and ensemble spreads
increase dramatically for the later half of the forecast period.
The GFS drops a storm system across the Intermountain West and
slowly brings it across the Desert Southwest through the last half
of the week. This should bring a chance for showers to the whole
area by Thursday. Temperatures would also be up on the air across
the Plains. The GFS has cold air sloshing back and forth across
the Plains, and afternoon highs would depend on where the cold air
back into. It could be one of those situations where areas along
I-25 warm into the 50s, while out east only see 30s for highs. The
ECMWF is much more progressive with an upper system moving across
Colorado on Thursday. Its a further north storm track with limited
precipitation for the Plains, and much warmer afternoon highs.
Mozley

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Saturday afternoon)
Issued at 1048 AM MST Fri Feb 1 2019

VFR conditions with generally light diurnal wind regimes can be
expected at COS and PUB over the next 24 hours, with upper level
ridging in place across the state.

VFR conditions with light winds are expected at ALS through the
afternoon and early evening under the building ridge aloft. Any
fog development tonight will likely depend on how much/if any of
the snow pack across the San Luis Valley melts and is able to
moisten up the boundary layer. Current forecast suggests some
IFR/LIFR conditions developing between 08Z-10Z. Any fog that can
develop will likely diminish shortly after sunrise.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...HODANISH
LONG TERM...MOZLEY
AVIATION...MW

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
529 AM MST Fri Feb 1 2019

COZ058>089-093>099-021230-
Western Mosquito Range/East Lake County Above 11000 Feet-
Leadville Vicinity/Lake County Below 11000 Feet-
Eastern Sawatch Mountains Above 11000 Feet-
Western Chaffee County Between 9000 and 11000 Feet-
Central Chaffee County Below 9000 Feet-
Western Mosquito Range/East Chaffee County Above 9000 Feet-
Saguache County West of Continental Divide Below 10000 Feet-
Saguache County East of Continental Divide Below 10000 Feet-
La Garita Mountains Above 10000 Feet-
Upper Rio Grande Valley/Eastern San Juan Mountains Below
10000 Feet-Eastern San Juan Mountains Above 10000 Feet-
Del Norte Vicinity/Northern San Luis Valley Below 8500 Feet-
Alamosa  Vicinity/Central San Luis Valley Below 8500 Feet-
Southern San Luis Valley-
Northern Sangre de Cristo Mountains Between 8500 And 11000 Feet-
Northern Sangre de Cristo Mountains Above 11000 Feet-
Southern Sangre de Cristo Mountains Between 7500 and 11000 Feet-
Southern Sangre de Cristo Mountains Above 11000 Feet-
Northwestern Fremont County Above 8500 Feet-
Western/Central Fremont County Below 8500 Feet-
Wet Mountain Valley Below 8500 Feet-
Wet Mountains between 6300 and 10000 Feet-
Wet Mountains Above 10000 Feet-
Teller County/Rampart Range Above 7500 Feet/Pikes Peak Between
7500 And 11000 Feet-Pikes Peak Above 11000 Feet-
Canon City Vicinity/Eastern Fremont County-
Northern El Paso County/Monument Ridge/Rampart Range Below
7500 Feet-
Colorado Springs Vicinity/Southern El Paso County/Rampart Range
Below 7400 Feet-Pueblo Vicinity/Pueblo County Below 6300 Feet-
Walsenburg Vicinity/Upper Huerfano River Basin Below 7500 Feet-
Trinidad Vicinity/Western Las Animas County Below 7500 Feet-
Crowley County-La Junta Vicinity/Otero County-
Eastern Las Animas County-Western Kiowa County-
Eastern Kiowa County-Las Animas Vicinity/Bent County-
Lamar Vicinity/Prowers County-Springfield Vicinity/Baca County-
529 AM MST Fri Feb 1 2019

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of central...east
central...south central and southeast Colorado.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday

A storm system is forecast to move across the area on Sunday
bringing snow to the Continental Divide and strong winds to the
lee slopes west of Interstate 25. Winds gusting in excess of 55
mph are possible, especially from Canon City, south to near
Trinidad. Snow accumulations along the Continental Divide will be
in the 2 to 5 inch range with 4 to 7 inches expected over the San
Juans.

Periods of light to moderate snow will remain possible Monday into
Wednesday along the Continental Divide. Minor accumulations are
expected. Another storm system will likely move across the region
on Thursday, but at this time there is much uncertainty in regards
to where snow will fall and how much.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Weather spotters will not be needed today or tonight.

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