Special Weather Statement, NWS Pueblo, CO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
316 PM MDT Tue Aug 13 2019

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 316 PM MDT Tue Aug 13 2019

An upper ridge will remain centered to the south of CO through Wed.
this evening an upper disturbance will be moving thru western NE and
western KS and eastern CO.  This disturbance is expected to bring
showers and thunderstorms to eastern CO, with the strongest storms
and the potential for severe storms being over the far southeast
plains this evening and even into the late night hours.  Large hail
and wind gusts of 60-70 mph will be the main severe threats, but a
tornado cannot be ruled out. The mtns and high valleys this evening,
should only see some isolated storms.

Forecast models keep some showers/tstms going over the far southeast
CO plains into Wed morning.  Also, some low stratus will be likely
over portions of the plains late tonight thru about midmorning Wed.

Any lingering storms over the far southeast plains should be done by
noon Wed, with dry weather expected elsewhere.  However, by noon the
mtn areas could start to see some isolated thunderstorm development.
Another weak disturbance in the flow is expected to move thru
eastern CO late in the day, enhancing chances for thunderstorms and
bringing the potential for some severe storms across southeast CO,
especially in the evening. SPC has a Marginal risk of severe storms
on Wed from roughly east of a line from Calhan, to Fowler, to Kim.
With a Slight risk over Kiowa County.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 316 PM MDT Tue Aug 13 2019

Wednesday night-Saturday night...Weak to moderate west to northwest
flow aloft progged across the region into the end of the work week,
with occasional disturbances translating through the stronger flow
aloft across the Northern Tier. Flow aloft keeps monsoonal moisture
well south of the Rockies, with best low level moisture remaining
across the far southeast Plains, where a weak boundary/dryline will
be meandering through the period. With the low level moisture and
boundary in place, along with strong late summer solar heating and
possible lift from passing waves, best chances for deep moist
convection and late afternoon and evening severe storms will be
across the far southeast Plains, where SPC Day 2 (Wednesday) and Day
3 (Thursday) outlooks have areas east of the I-25 Corridor in a
marginal risk, with main threats being large hail and strong outflow
winds. Further west, with strong diurnal heating and enough residual
moisture, can't rule out isolated to scattered high based showers
and storms over and near the higher terrain through the afternoon
and early evening hours, with main threats being lightning and gusty
outflow winds. Highs through this period look to be above seasonal
levels, with highs in the mid 80s to upper 90s across the plains, in
the 60s to lower 80s across the higher terrain and mainly 50s at the
peaks. With drier air progged across western portions of the area,
could see cooler overnight lows, especially across the high mountain
valleys, where strong radiational cooling could take place.

Sunday-Tuesday...Latest models continue to indicate upper level
ridging will slowly build back across the Rockies, with mid level
flow slowly becoming more west to southwest into early next week.
This will allow for slowly increasing available moisture once again,
with slowly increasing chances of diurnal showers and thunderstorms,
over and near the higher terrain by Tuesday. Further east, drier air
and warming aloft will likely cap convection, especially early in
the period. Temperatures again look to be at to above seasonal
levels into early next week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Wednesday evening)
Issued at 316 PM MDT Tue Aug 13 2019

KALS should have VFR conditions the next 24 hrs. There will be the
possibility of a showers or thunderstorms coming in the vicinity of
KALS late this afternoon and early this evening, but chances are
low.  Late Wed afternoon, there could again be a chance for some
showers or thunderstorms in the area.

KCOS and KPUB could see showers and thunderstorms in the vicinity
thru this evening, with gusty outflow winds, and lighting being the
main threats. Late tonight there will be the potential for some low
stratus to move into the area which could cause IFR or MVFR
conditions thru about 15Z or 16Z.  By midafternoon Wed, there will
again be a chance for showers and thunderstorms.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...28
LONG TERM...MW
AVIATION...28

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
1114 AM MDT Tue Aug 13 2019

COZ058>089-093>099-141715-
Western Mosquito Range/East Lake County Above 11000 Feet-
Leadville Vicinity/Lake County Below 11000 Feet-
Eastern Sawatch Mountains Above 11000 Feet-
Western Chaffee County Between 9000 and 11000 Feet-
Central Chaffee County Below 9000 Feet-
Western Mosquito Range/East Chaffee County Above 9000 Feet-
Saguache County West of Continental Divide Below 10000 Feet-
Saguache County East of Continental Divide Below 10000 Feet-
La Garita Mountains Above 10000 Feet-
Upper Rio Grande Valley/Eastern San Juan Mountains Below
10000 Feet-Eastern San Juan Mountains Above 10000 Feet-
Del Norte Vicinity/Northern San Luis Valley Below 8500 Feet-
Alamosa  Vicinity/Central San Luis Valley Below 8500 Feet-
Southern San Luis Valley-
Northern Sangre de Cristo Mountains Between 8500 And 11000 Feet-
Northern Sangre de Cristo Mountains Above 11000 Feet-
Southern Sangre de Cristo Mountains Between 7500 and 11000 Feet-
Southern Sangre de Cristo Mountains Above 11000 Feet-
Northwestern Fremont County Above 8500 Feet-
Western/Central Fremont County Below 8500 Feet-
Wet Mountain Valley Below 8500 Feet-
Wet Mountains between 6300 and 10000 Feet-
Wet Mountains Above 10000 Feet-
Teller County/Rampart Range Above 7500 Feet/Pikes Peak Between
7500 And 11000 Feet-Pikes Peak Above 11000 Feet-
Canon City Vicinity/Eastern Fremont County-
Northern El Paso County/Monument Ridge/Rampart Range Below
7500 Feet-
Colorado Springs Vicinity/Southern El Paso County/Rampart Range
Below 7400 Feet-Pueblo Vicinity/Pueblo County Below 6300 Feet-
Walsenburg Vicinity/Upper Huerfano River Basin Below 7500 Feet-
Trinidad Vicinity/Western Las Animas County Below 7500 Feet-
Crowley County-La Junta Vicinity/Otero County-
Eastern Las Animas County-Western Kiowa County-
Eastern Kiowa County-Las Animas Vicinity/Bent County-
Lamar Vicinity/Prowers County-Springfield Vicinity/Baca County-
1114 AM MDT Tue Aug 13 2019

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of central...east
central...south central and southeast Colorado.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

Isolated thunderstorms are expected this afternoon and evening
over the mountains and high valleys. Some isolated storms will
also develop over the southeast plains later this afternoon but
in the early evening, storms are expected to become more
widespread over the far southeast plains. A couple severe storms
will be possible, mainly east of a line from Monument to Rocky
Ford to Kim. However, Kiowa, Bent, Prowers and Baca Counties are
under the greatest threat of severe storms, with large hail up to
about 2 inches in diameter, wind gusts of 60 to 70 mph, and
locally heavy rain being the main severe threats. All storms
will produce deadly lightning and could produce gusty outflow
winds.

Another round of thunderstorms may develop overnight, as moist
outflow winds from thunderstorms spreads westward into the I-25
corridor and southeast mountains. A few strong storms will be
possible past midnight with lightning, locally heavy rainfall and
small hail possible.

Across the mountains and valleys today, the main threat with
storms will be lightning, gusty winds up to 45 mph, and brief
moderate rainfall. Thunderstorms will diminish across the western
mountains and valleys by mid to late evening.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday

A few strong to severe thunderstorms will be possible across the
far eastern plains of Colorado Wednesday afternoon and evening,
while the remainder of the area may see isolated storm activity.
The main threat from any of the stronger storms across the eastern
plains will be hail up to one inch in diameter, wind gusts up to
60 mph, frequent cloud to ground lightning and periods of moderate
to heavy rainfall.

Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are expected Thursday through
the weekend and into the next work week. The most likely areas to
see this activity will be over the mountains, with weak flow
keeping the activity tied to the terrain. Any thunderstorms that
develop will produce lightning, brief periods of moderate
rainfall, and a few of the strongest storms may generate wind
gusts of up to 50 mph.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Weather conditions that meet reporting criteria for spotters will be
likely across the southeast plains this afternoon and evening.

28/28

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Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
258 PM MDT Tue Aug 13 2019

COZ099-132130-
Springfield Vicinity/Baca County CO-
258 PM MDT Tue Aug 13 2019

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHWESTERN BACA COUNTY UNTIL
330 PM MDT...

At 257 PM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 12
miles south of Pritchett, or 21 miles southwest of Springfield,
moving southeast at 25 mph.

Nickel size hail and winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations impacted include...
mainly rural areas of southwestern Baca County.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

&&

LAT...LON 3700 10284 3715 10304 3736 10287 3721 10245
      3699 10266
TIME...MOT...LOC 2057Z 307DEG 21KT 3719 10290

29

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
317 PM MDT Tue Aug 13 2019

COZ097-098-132145-
Lamar Vicinity/Prowers County CO-Las Animas Vicinity/Bent County CO-
317 PM MDT Tue Aug 13 2019

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHERN PROWERS AND SOUTHEASTERN
BENT COUNTIES UNTIL 345 PM MDT...

At 316 PM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking a cluster of strong
thunderstorms 14 miles northwest of Two Buttes Reservoir, or 18
miles south of Lamar, moving northeast at 45 mph.

Nickel size hail and winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with
this storm.

These storms will remain over mainly rural areas of southern Prowers
and southeastern Bent Counties.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

&&

LAT...LON 3765 10271 3774 10316 3810 10279 3785 10214
TIME...MOT...LOC 2116Z 237DEG 39KT 3783 10273

29

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
414 PM MDT Tue Aug 13 2019

COZ096-098-132245-
Lamar Vicinity/Prowers County CO-Eastern Kiowa County CO-
414 PM MDT Tue Aug 13 2019

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHERN PROWERS AND SOUTHEASTERN
KIOWA COUNTIES UNTIL 445 PM MDT...

At 414 PM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Lamar, moving northeast at 30 mph.

Nickel size hail and wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Lamar, Granada, Hartman and Bristol.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

&&

LAT...LON 3795 10254 3811 10273 3840 10234 3812 10205
TIME...MOT...LOC 2214Z 235DEG 25KT 3810 10250

29

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
439 PM MDT Tue Aug 13 2019

COZ099-132330-
Springfield Vicinity/Baca County CO-
439 PM MDT Tue Aug 13 2019

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHEASTERN BACA COUNTY UNTIL
530 PM MDT...

At 439 PM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 11
miles south of Stonington, or 20 miles northwest of Elkhart, moving
southeast at 15 mph.

Penny size hail and winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Stonington.

LAT...LON 3700 10268 3741 10204 3699 10204
TIME...MOT...LOC 2239Z 330DEG 12KT 3713 10222

KTS