Special Weather Statement, NWS Pueblo, CO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
259 PM MDT Sun Jul 14 2019

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday)
Issued at 243 PM MDT Sun Jul 14 2019

Current water vapor imagery and upper air analysis is indicating the
center of large mid level high has slide south across north central
New Mexico, with generally weak westerly mid level steering flow in
place across south central and southeast Colorado at this time. GOES
blended total precipitable water imagery is indicating PWATS up to
between 0.7 and 1 inch across the region with regional radars
indicating scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms over
higher terrain, with a few storms pushing east across the immediate
adjacent plains at this time.

No big changes in current forecast thinking as latest models remain
in good agreement of keeping weak westerly mid level flow in place
across the region through the day tomorrow, as the center of the
upper high remains in place across central New Mexico.

With that said, will continue to see storms pushing east across the
high valleys and I-25 Corridor through the late afternoon and
evening, with the best coverage across the Pikes Peak/Palmer Dvd and
the Raton Mesa. The latest higher res models are indicating storms
pushing as far east into Crowley and Otero and eastern portions of
Las Animas Counties through the evening before all convection
diminishes and ends around midnight. Storm threats remain locally
heavy rainfall and the potential for flash flooding if storms move
across the newer burn areas of the Spring, Junkins and Hayden Pass
scars, as well as gusty outflow winds to near 50 mph. Over night
lows will continue to be at or slightly above seasonal levels, in
the mid 50s to mid 60s across the Plains, and mainly 40s and 50s
across the higher terrain.

For tomorrow, models indicating a slight decrease in available
moisture with PWATS progged between 0.6 and 0.8 inches. However,
with the strong summer sunshine, will continue to see scattered to
numerous showers and storms developing over the higher terrain from
the late morning into the afternoon. Storms will move east across
the immediate adjacent plains, with the best coverage once again
expected across the Pikes Peak/Palmer Dvd and Raton Mesa regions.
Storm threats will continue to be locally heavy rainfall and gusty
outflow winds, with localized flash flooding possible across the
burn scars. Highs tomorrow will remain similar to today, with high
in 90s to around the century mark across the Plains, with 70s and
80s across the higher terrain and in the 50s and 60s at the peaks.

.LONG TERM...(Monday night through Sunday)
Issued at 243 PM MDT Sun Jul 14 2019

Models continue to be in good agreement through the extended
period. Ensemble spreads also continue to be on the smaller side,
until we get to next weekend when spreads start to increase.

Monday night through Wednesday...expect showers and thunderstorms to
be ongoing Monday evening across much of the area. This activity
will shift eastward across the Plains, exiting into Kansas or
dissipating by midnight. Expect dry conditions into Tuesday
morning.

An upper disturbance is forecast to drop south across Colorado by
Tuesday afternoon. Initial convective development will occur by
late morning over the mountains. Increasing westerly flow aloft
will help push showers and thunderstorms off the mountains and
into the Plains by the late afternoon and evening hours.
Temperatures will be hot with upper 90s to lower 100s across the
lower elevations.

By Wednesday, high pressure over the Desert Southwest is forecast
to begin building northward into Colorado. One more round of
isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected by
the afternoon across the region. Again, initial development will
occur over the mountains before spreading east into the I-25
corridor. This activity is forecast to dissipate through the
evening with dry conditions expected after midnight.

Thursday and Friday...high pressure will build across Colorado
with hot afternoon highs both afternoons. Lack of energy moving
across Colorado should keep the area dry on Thursday. Also
thinking Friday will remain dry at this time, however, have low
pops over the mountains for the afternoon and evening. Lower
elevation highs will climb into the lower 100s.

Saturday and Sunday...high pressure will shift east into the
Central Plains with increasing moisture out of the Desert
Southwest over the weekend. This will lead to increased shower and
thunderstorms chances, especially out west along the Continental
Divide on Saturday, with increased coverage expected on Sunday.
Mozley

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Monday evening)
Issued at 243 PM MDT Sun Jul 14 2019

VFR conditions expected at COS, PUB and ALS over the next 24 hours,
with showers and thunderstorms over the higher terrain moving across
the adjacent plains through the evening hours. Best chances of
storms moving across the terminals will be at COS through 03Z, with
storms  and ending by 06z. Gusty winds up to 40 kts and
locally heavy rainfall are the main threats from storms, though
small hail can not be ruled with the stronger storms. Skies will
clear through the overnight hours with another round of afternoon
storms expected across the area tomorrow.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...MW
LONG TERM...MOZLEY
AVIATION...MW