Special Weather Statement, NWS Pueblo, CO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
1101 AM MDT Thu Jul 11 2019

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 352 AM MDT Thu Jul 11 2019

Upper level high pressure will remain centered along the CO/NM
border today and tonight, with very warm max temps returning to all
of southern Colorado after a brief cool-down on the plains
yesterday. Moderate instability develops over the mountains and I-25
corridor this afternoon, leading to mainly isolated thunderstorms
forming over the higher terrain initially, then drifting across
interior valleys and adjacent plains late in the day. Lack of upper
level forcing and drying low levels suggest mostly weak storms with
gusty outflow winds and lightning the main threats. Deeper
instability (CAPE above 1k J/KG) will lie over the eastern plains
this afternoon and evening, though with very weak steering flow
under the high, doubt much in the way of convection will survive
long enough to make it very far past I-25, with latest HRRR/NAM
confirming this scenario. Will keep a broad-brush of low pops over
the area for this afternoon and tonight, though suspect most
locations will only see brief gusty outflows and sprinkles at best.
Any thunderstorm activity ends quickly this evening with loss of
heating, and skies will become clear at most locations by early
Friday morning.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 352 AM MDT Thu Jul 11 2019

A broad upper ridge and abundant moisture will dominate weather over
southern Colorado through middle of next week, leading to daily
thunderstorm chances and slightly above normal temperatures. Models
appear to be in good agreement through the long term with this
fairly simple setup. Temperatures for the duration of the long term
will be slightly above normal, with highs in the mid to upper 90s
across the plains, and 80s throughout the high valleys. Some
locations across the plains, particularly from Pueblo through Lamar,
could reach 100.

Friday - Saturday...

For the start of the long term, the ridge will be centered over the
CO/NM border. Abundant moisture will have wrapped around the ridge
by Friday, bringing TPW values to around 0.75" over the high
terrain, or near normal. Strong heating each afternoon in the
presence of favorable moisture will yield scattered to low-end
widespread thunderstorm coverage over the high terrain, with
slightly better storm coverage on Saturday vs Friday given
increasing moisture aloft. Considering the location of the ridge
center, steering flow will be very weak, so thunderstorms will be
slow to move, if at all. This makes it unlikely for storms to make
it east onto the plains. Isolated to widely scattered pops were
included for the I-25 corridor to account for the possibility of
initiation off of outflow boundaries. Storms further east will be
unlikely. Given slow storm motion and adequate moisture, brief heavy
rainfall will be possible with these storms, threatening burn scars.
CAPE near 1000 j/kg each day means storms could be strong, but very
weak deep layer shear will limit the threat to small hail and wind
gusts to 50 mph, and keep the strong storms brief.

Sunday - Monday...

Saturday into Sunday, the upper ridge is forecast to slowly drift
south, leading to slightly better westerly steering flow.
Additionally, moisture will continue to increase over the high
terrain, TPW up to around 1", which is slightly above normal.
Therefore, afternoon storm coverage over the high terrain is
expected to become widespread for these days. Given better steering
flow and increased storm coverage over the high terrain potentially
generating more outflow boundaries, storm coverage should be better
over the plains as well, especially on Monday, when widely scattered
coverage is forecast over much of the I-25 corridor and plains.
Storm threats should remain unchanged from those discussed above.
Increased storm coverage and moisture will increase the potential
for heavy rain hitting a burn scar.

Tuesday - Wednesday...

The ridge continues to flatten during this period as a weakening
shortwave pushes across the Great Basin on Tuesday. With this
change, models indicate the potential for drier air to filter in
aloft, causing a gradual decline in storm coverage each day. Storm
threats remain the same, with a slight reduction in the flash flood
potential as storm coverage and atmospheric moisture decrease.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday afternoon)
Issued at 1101 AM MDT Thu Jul 11 2019

Afternoon thunderstorms will develop in the vicinity of KALS,
KCOS, and KPUB. No precipitation is expected, but gusty
thunderstorm outflow winds are. At this point, a thunderstorm is
expected to develop off of Pikes Peak and propagate southeasterly,
affecting KCOS and KPUB. The exact direction the winds will depend
on the exact track, which is still uncertain. If the thunderstorm
develop directly overhead of either KCOS or KPUB, expect erratic
winds. Wind direction is more certain for KALS, though.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...PETERSEN
LONG TERM...LINE
AVIATION...SKELLY

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Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
139 PM MDT Thu Jul 11 2019

COZ074-088-112015-
Southern Sangre De Cristo Mountains Between 7500 and 11000 Ft CO-
Trinidad Vicinity/Western Las Animas County Below 7500 Ft CO-
139 PM MDT Thu Jul 11 2019

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHWESTERN LAS ANIMAS COUNTY
UNTIL 215 PM MDT...

At 139 PM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Segundo, or 16 miles west of Trinidad. This storm was nearly
stationary.

Winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Cokedale, Segundo, Boncarbo and Weston.

LAT...LON 3703 10490 3711 10498 3721 10494 3727 10485
      3728 10469 3722 10460 3715 10455 3707 10457
      3702 10465 3700 10477
TIME...MOT...LOC 1939Z 280DEG 4KT 3713 10480

KTS