Special Weather Statement, NWS Pueblo, CO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
336 PM MDT Mon Jul 8 2019

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 336 PM MDT Mon Jul 8 2019

Currently...Shortwave in the southwest flow aloft was tracking
across the state, tapping into the available moisture for isolated
convection across the forecast area. Temps have warmed into the 70s
for the high valleys as of 3 pm, and into the 80s to lower 90s for
the plains.

Tonight and Tomorrow...Latest HRRR model runs have a fairly decent
handle on current convection, and indicate that activity will
persist along the I-25 corridor until around 6 pm, then quickly exit
across the eastern plains between 8 and 9 pm. This is due to the
upper shortwave exiting the region, then as the upper trough crosses
the northern Rockies flow aloft becomes westerly. This westerly flow
will dry out the forecast area overnight through tomorrow, making
for mostly clear skies overnight and plenty of sun tomorrow.

The Marginal area for severe weather is still in place across the
far eastern plains, and with higher available precipitable water
amounts across the east, storms developing over or moving into
Kiowa, Bent and Prowers Counties will still need to be watched
closely through the early evening.

Clearing skies tonight will allow temps to drop into the upper 30s
to mid 40s for the high valleys, and 50s to near 60F for the plains.
Max temps tomorrow will heat up into the 80s for the high valleys,
and upper 80s to mid 90s for the plains. Moore

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday night through Monday)
Issued at 336 PM MDT Mon Jul 8 2019

Initially, basically dry meteorological conditions are expected
from Tuesday evening into early Wednesday afternoon as supported
by projected Interstate 25 precipitable water values dropping
form over 1 inch today(Monday) to under 0.70 inches in
combination with healthy upper ridging building over southern
Colorado during this time-frame. In addition, cooler maximum
temperatures are expected Wednesday afternoon in the wake of a dry
northerly surface surge moving across eastern locations Tuesday
night.

Upper ridging is then expected to remain anchored over southern
Colorado and northern New Mexico from later Wednesday into next
Monday, allowing near to above seasonal early to mid July temperatures
to prevail over the CWA during the period.

In addition, increased projected precipitable water values from
Wednesday afternoon into Friday and especially from this weekend
into possibly next Monday in combination with the diurnal heating
cycle and passing generally weak upper disturbances will allow
for increasing precipitation chances, favoring this weekend into
possibly next Monday(where an elevated potential for locally heavy
rainfall and associated primarily recent burn scar flash flood
risks may occur if recent trends continue).

Finally, latest longer range forecast model soundings and
computer simulations continue to signal that generally low-grade
gradient winds should be noted over the majority of the CWA during
the balance of the longer term.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Tuesday evening)
Issued at 336 PM MDT Mon Jul 8 2019

VFR conditions expected across much of the forecast area over the
next 24 hrs, including the three main TAF sites of KCOS, KPUB and
KALS. Showers and storms have developed across the forecast area
this afternoon and may affect TAF sites through 00z this eve, with
all activity forecast to exit the plains between 02z-03z. Conditions
may become MVFR to at times IFR under heavier showers and storms.
Clearing skies then tonight, with mostly clear conditions overnight
and tomorrow morning.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

NONE.

&&

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
1123 AM MDT Mon Jul 8 2019

COZ058>089-093>099-091730-
Western Mosquito Range/East Lake County Above 11000 Feet-
Leadville Vicinity/Lake County Below 11000 Feet-
Eastern Sawatch Mountains Above 11000 Feet-
Western Chaffee County Between 9000 and 11000 Feet-
Central Chaffee County Below 9000 Feet-
Western Mosquito Range/East Chaffee County Above 9000 Feet-
Saguache County West of Continental Divide Below 10000 Feet-
Saguache County East of Continental Divide Below 10000 Feet-
La Garita Mountains Above 10000 Feet-
Upper Rio Grande Valley/Eastern San Juan Mountains Below
10000 Feet-Eastern San Juan Mountains Above 10000 Feet-
Del Norte Vicinity/Northern San Luis Valley Below 8500 Feet-
Alamosa  Vicinity/Central San Luis Valley Below 8500 Feet-
Southern San Luis Valley-
Northern Sangre de Cristo Mountains Between 8500 And 11000 Feet-
Northern Sangre de Cristo Mountains Above 11000 Feet-
Southern Sangre de Cristo Mountains Between 7500 and 11000 Feet-
Southern Sangre de Cristo Mountains Above 11000 Feet-
Northwestern Fremont County Above 8500 Feet-
Western/Central Fremont County Below 8500 Feet-
Wet Mountain Valley Below 8500 Feet-
Wet Mountains between 6300 and 10000 Feet-
Wet Mountains Above 10000 Feet-
Teller County/Rampart Range Above 7500 Feet/Pikes Peak Between
7500 And 11000 Feet-Pikes Peak Above 11000 Feet-
Canon City Vicinity/Eastern Fremont County-
Northern El Paso County/Monument Ridge/Rampart Range Below
7500 Feet-
Colorado Springs Vicinity/Southern El Paso County/Rampart Range
Below 7400 Feet-Pueblo Vicinity/Pueblo County Below 6300 Feet-
Walsenburg Vicinity/Upper Huerfano River Basin Below 7500 Feet-
Trinidad Vicinity/Western Las Animas County Below 7500 Feet-
Crowley County-La Junta Vicinity/Otero County-
Eastern Las Animas County-Western Kiowa County-
Eastern Kiowa County-Las Animas Vicinity/Bent County-
Lamar Vicinity/Prowers County-Springfield Vicinity/Baca County-
1123 AM MDT Mon Jul 8 2019

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of central...east
central...south central and southeast Colorado.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight

Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected to
develop across the higher terrain this afternoon, with storms
moving north and east across the adjacent plains through the
evening. The main threats from storms will be lightning, gusty
winds up to 45 mph, small hail and locally heavy rain. However,
one or two storms across the far southeast Plains, mainly north of
Highway 50 in Bent, Prowers and Kiowa Counties, could be strong
to severe, producing gusty winds up to 60 mph and large hail up to
the size of quarters. Although storms will be moving faster than
the past few days, localized flash flooding will remain possible,
especially if storms form or move across the Spring, Junkins or
Hayden Pass burn scars.

High and fast river flows from snow melt runoff will continue today,
with portions of the Arkansas River and the Rio Grande running high.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday

After a dry day on Tuesday, thunderstorm chances will begin to
increase from Wednesday into the weekend, with the best chance for
storms over the mountains and interior valleys through the
period. On the plains, storm chances will be lower, and limited
mainly to areas along the Interstate 25 corridor. The main storm
threats each day will be lightning and gusty winds up to 50 mph,
with stronger storms capable of producing small hail and locally
heavy rain.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Weather conditions that meet reporting criteria for spotters will be
possible this afternoon and early evening across southeast
Colorado.

27/77

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
720 PM MDT Mon Jul 8 2019

COZ097-098-090200-
Lamar Vicinity/Prowers County CO-Las Animas Vicinity/Bent County CO-
720 PM MDT Mon Jul 8 2019

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHWESTERN PROWERS AND
NORTHEASTERN BENT COUNTIES UNTIL 800 PM MDT...

At 719 PM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Hasty, or 21 miles west of Lamar, moving east at 25 mph.

Nickel size hail and wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Lamar, Wiley, McClave, Hasty, John Martin Reservoir, Fort Lyon and
Caddoa.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

&&

LAT...LON 3799 10319 3826 10310 3826 10256 3791 10258
TIME...MOT...LOC 0119Z 261DEG 22KT 3812 10301

KT

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
722 PM MDT Mon Jul 8 2019

COZ095-096-090145-
Western Kiowa County CO-Eastern Kiowa County CO-
722 PM MDT Mon Jul 8 2019

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR EASTERN KIOWA COUNTY UNTIL 745 PM
MDT...

At 722 PM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from 9 miles northeast of Eads to Neegronda
Reservoir. Movement was east at 15 mph.

Nickel size hail and wind gusts of 50 to 55 mph will be possible with
these storms.

Locations impacted include...
Eads, Sheridan Lake, Sweetwater Reservoir, Chivington, Brandon,
Neenoshe Reservoir, Neegronda Reservoir and Queens Reservoir.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with these storms.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

These storms may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

&&

LAT...LON 3827 10238 3827 10286 3861 10273 3861 10220
TIME...MOT...LOC 0122Z 276DEG 15KT 3859 10266 3829 10277

KT

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
748 PM MDT Mon Jul 8 2019

COZ095-096-090230-
Western Kiowa County CO-Eastern Kiowa County CO-
748 PM MDT Mon Jul 8 2019

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR EASTERN KIOWA COUNTY UNTIL 830 PM
MDT...

At 748 PM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from 10 miles north of Chivington to Queens
Reservoir. Movement was east at 15 mph.

Wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with these storms.

Locations impacted include...
Sheridan Lake, Chivington, Brandon, Neenoshe Reservoir, Neegronda
Reservoir and Queens Reservoir.

LAT...LON 3827 10227 3827 10280 3861 10258 3861 10210
TIME...MOT...LOC 0148Z 270DEG 15KT 3858 10252 3831 10268

KT

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