Special Weather Statement, NWS Pueblo, CO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
1112 AM MDT Sat Jun 15 2019

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 339 AM MDT Sat Jun 15 2019

...Increasing Coverage of Storms Today...
...Locally Heavy Rainfall Possible...

Current water vapor imagery and upper air analysis is indicating
modest west to southwest flow aloft across the region this morning,
with a broad upper trough digging across the Rockies.

Today and Tonight...Models continue to indicate the broad upper
trough will dig across the Rockies today and then lift out into the
High Plains later tonight. This leads to lowering pressures in the
lee of the Rockies and allows for a weak front, and resurgence of
low level moisture, to back across the southeast Plains later this
morning, with dew points in the mid 40s to mid 50s expected across
the Plains into the afternoon.

With the moisture in place, along with steep lapse rates and uvv
associated with the passing system, scattered to numerous showers
and thunderstorms are expected to develop across the higher terrain
later this morning. Showers and storms will continue develop and
spread east across the immediate adjacent plains through the
afternoon and then looks to congeal into an MCS across the far
southeast Plains this evening which rolls into southwest Kansas
overnight, though there remains some differences on the exact
location of this MCS.

With the moisture in place, locally heavy rainfall can be expected
with storms today, especially across the lower eastern slopes and
the southeast Plains. This will lead to the potential for flash
flooding, especially if this heavy rain falls on the newer burn
areas of the Spring, Junkins and Hayden Pass burn scars, with the
flash flood watch for these areas still looking good for this
afternoon and early evening. As for the potential for severe
weather, SPC Day 1 Outlook has portions of Baca County in a slight
risk, with areas south of the Highway 50 Corridor in a marginal
risk. With northeasterly winds behind the passing frontal boundary
and the modest southwest flow aloft, there could be enough shear to
support a few marginally severe storms, with hail up to inch in
diameter the main severe threat.

With the expected convection and upslope flow, temperatures today
look to be 5-10 degrees cooler than yesterday, with highs in the mid
70s to mid 80s expected across the lower elevations, and in the 50s
and 60s across the higher terrain. Lows tonight will be in the 40s
and 50s areawide, with 30s at the peaks. The cooler temperatures
also looks to slow the melting of the high mountain snowpack,
however, will keep current snowmelt flood warnings and watches in
place, and continue to monitor the latest river stages and trends in
the stages.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Friday)
Issued at 339 AM MDT Sat Jun 15 2019

Subsidence behind departing trough/mid level low and post-MCS
stable cold pool on the plains may tend to limit convective
strength and coverage on Sun, especially east of the mountains.
Farther west, air mass back over the higher terrain will
destabilize enough for fairly widespread thunderstorms by
afternoon, and a few weakening showers/storms will drift across
the plains in the evening, though better forcing may be in nern
CO near the nose of developing low level jet. Overall, heavy rain
and severe threats will be less than Sat given weaker
instability/shear, though still a risk of some burn scar flooding
over the eastern mountains from afternoon into early evening. Max
temps on Sat will drift downward from Saturday's numbers with
moisture and residual surface cold pool, and even usually warm
lower Ark Valley will struggle to make it to 80f.

Stronger mid level flow begins to develop on Mon ahead of next
trough dropping to the wrn US, while surface moisture/instability
increase on the plains as low level winds become s-sely by
afternoon in response to falling pressure over ern CO. Would
expect an boost in thunderstorm strength and coverage Mon
afternoon/evening in response, though severe chance still looks on
the low side given 0-6km shear remains around 30 kts. Will again
have to watch area burn scars for flooding, while at least a low
threat of flash flooding develops on the ern plains as surface
dewpoints climb toward 60f near the KS border. Upper trough then
slides across the area on Tue, bringing another round of showers
and thunderstorms to most locations. Should see rather widespread
coverage of storms given stronger forcing, though with surface
flow taking on a wly component over the area by afternoon, storm
strength may be somewhat limited. Max temps both Mon/Tue will
continue to be held back by clouds/precip, with readings within a
few degf of Sunday's numbers.

After Tuesday, wly flow aloft strengthens enough to push most low
and mid level moisture east of the area, with only some weak
residual convection lingering over the mountains. After several
cool days Sat-Tue, temps will warm back up toward seasonal
averages Wed-Fri. Both ECMWF and GFS then have a cold front
moving through the area late Fri/early Sat, bringing an increase
in thunderstorm chances to at least the eastern mountains and
plains next weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Sunday afternoon)
Issued at 1112 AM MDT Sat Jun 15 2019

Vicinity thunderstorms will develop near KALS, KCOS, and KPUB this
afternoon, with the best chance of thunderstorms developing over
KCOS and KPUB. The winds will become gusty and erratic once the
thunderstorms develop. There may be times when storms are overhead
that visibilities decrease. Thunderstorms will dissipate during the
evening hours over KALS, but KCOS and KPUB will see showers and
thunderstorms throughout the evening hours.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flood Watch through Monday afternoon for COZ065>068-070-071.

Flash Flood Watch until 11 PM MDT this evening for COZ072-074-
077>079-087.

&&

SHORT TERM...MW
LONG TERM...PETERSEN
AVIATION...SKELLY

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
1109 AM MDT Sat Jun 15 2019

COZ058>089-093>099-161300-
Western Mosquito Range/East Lake County Above 11000 Feet-
Leadville Vicinity/Lake County Below 11000 Feet-
Eastern Sawatch Mountains Above 11000 Feet-
Western Chaffee County Between 9000 and 11000 Feet-
Central Chaffee County Below 9000 Feet-
Western Mosquito Range/East Chaffee County Above 9000 Feet-
Saguache County West of Continental Divide Below 10000 Feet-
Saguache County East of Continental Divide Below 10000 Feet-
La Garita Mountains Above 10000 Feet-
Upper Rio Grande Valley/Eastern San Juan Mountains Below
10000 Feet-Eastern San Juan Mountains Above 10000 Feet-
Del Norte Vicinity/Northern San Luis Valley Below 8500 Feet-
Alamosa  Vicinity/Central San Luis Valley Below 8500 Feet-
Southern San Luis Valley-
Northern Sangre de Cristo Mountains Between 8500 And 11000 Feet-
Northern Sangre de Cristo Mountains Above 11000 Feet-
Southern Sangre de Cristo Mountains Between 7500 and 11000 Feet-
Southern Sangre de Cristo Mountains Above 11000 Feet-
Northwestern Fremont County Above 8500 Feet-
Western/Central Fremont County Below 8500 Feet-
Wet Mountain Valley Below 8500 Feet-
Wet Mountains between 6300 and 10000 Feet-
Wet Mountains Above 10000 Feet-
Teller County/Rampart Range Above 7500 Feet/Pikes Peak Between
7500 And 11000 Feet-Pikes Peak Above 11000 Feet-
Canon City Vicinity/Eastern Fremont County-
Northern El Paso County/Monument Ridge/Rampart Range Below
7500 Feet-
Colorado Springs Vicinity/Southern El Paso County/Rampart Range
Below 7400 Feet-Pueblo Vicinity/Pueblo County Below 6300 Feet-
Walsenburg Vicinity/Upper Huerfano River Basin Below 7500 Feet-
Trinidad Vicinity/Western Las Animas County Below 7500 Feet-
Crowley County-La Junta Vicinity/Otero County-
Eastern Las Animas County-Western Kiowa County-
Eastern Kiowa County-Las Animas Vicinity/Bent County-
Lamar Vicinity/Prowers County-Springfield Vicinity/Baca County-
1109 AM MDT Sat Jun 15 2019

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of central...east
central...south central and southeast Colorado.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight

Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms are expected to
develop across the higher terrain through the afternoon, with
storms spreading east across the immediate adjacent plains then
continue out across the far southeast Plains late this afternoon
and evening. Locally heavy rainfall will be possible today,
especially across the lower eastern slopes of the southern
mountains and the southeast Plains. This will lead to the
potential for flash flooding, especially if the heavy rain falls
across the newer burn areas of the Spring, Junkins and Hayden Pass
burn scars. Other storm threats today will be frequent cloud to
ground lighting, gusty outflow winds up to 45 mph and small hail.
However, one or two strong to severe storms will be possible
across the far southeast Plains, with hail to near 1 inch in
diameter and wind gusts to near 60 mph possible.

Fast and high flows in area creeks, streams and rivers will continue
across the area today, with the potential for flooding, especially
in the southwest mountains, portions of the San Luis Valley, and
along the Upper Arkansas River Valley, generally west of the Pueblo
Reservoir.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday

Scattered to numerous thunderstorms are expected across the area
from Sunday into Tuesday, with the greatest chance for storms
over the eastern mountains. Lightning, small hail and gusty
outflow winds will be possible with any thunderstorm through the
weekend and into early next week. Heavy rainfall and flash
flooding will also be possible each day across the entire region,
with the greatest risk across the eastern mountain burn scars.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Conditions that meet reporting criteria for spotters will be
possible across the southeast Plains this afternoon and evening, and
in the southwest mountains, portions of the San Luis Valley and the
Upper Arkansas River Valley through tonight.

SKELLY/27

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Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
214 PM MDT Sat Jun 15 2019

COZ081-083-085-152045-
Canon City Vicinity/Eastern Fremont County CO-
Colorado Springs Vicinity/Southern El Paso County/Rampart Range Below
7400 Ft CO-
Teller County/Rampart Range above 7500fT/Pike's Peak Between 7500 And
11000 Ft CO-
214 PM MDT Sat Jun 15 2019

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHEASTERN FREMONT...SOUTH
CENTRAL TELLER AND SOUTHWESTERN EL PASO COUNTIES UNTIL 245 PM MDT...

At 214 PM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Canon City, or 27 miles north of Junkins Burn Scar, moving northeast
at 10 mph.

Penny size hail and winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Canon City.

LAT...LON 3845 10516 3848 10524 3867 10514 3856 10493
TIME...MOT...LOC 2014Z 217DEG 11KT 3852 10516

KTS