Special Weather Statement, NWS Pueblo, CO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
1133 AM MDT Mon Jun 3 2019

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 506 AM MDT Mon Jun 3 2019

Currently...An upper low pressure system persists over southern CA,
keeping south to southwest flow aloft in place for the region. A
shortwave was rotating up across the state early this morning,
kicking off a few short-lived showers and storms, but as of 4 am
activity was starting to die off. Temps so far have cooled into the
mid 40s to mid 50s for most locations.

Today and tonight...The upper low will gradually edge to
southwestern AZ by tonight, but very little movement means not a lot
of change to the overall expected weather across the forecast area
through the short term. Another hot day on tap, with convection
forecast to initiate over the higher terrain by midday and gradually
slide east through the afternoon and early evening. Models indicate
that the higher dewpoints will be in KS, but there is the chance of
one or two strong to near-severe storms across the far eastern
plains near the KS border. NAM paints about 1500 J/kg of CAPE across
Baca, Prowers and Kiowa Counties by mid-afternoon, then the area
loses the fuel as everything shifts east. Look for highs in the mid
to upper 70s for the high valleys, and in the 80s to near 90F for
the plains. Tonight, temps will cool into the 40s for the high
valleys, and 50s for the plains. Moore

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 506 AM MDT Mon Jun 3 2019

Meteorological focus is on track of closed upper low, initially
located over far southwestern Arizona sunrise Tuesday before
shifting to far southeastern Arizona by sunrise Wednesday and
then advancing to far northeastern New Mexico by sunrise Thursday
before traversing across Kansas on Friday. In addition, a
northerly surface surge is projected to move across eastern
locations from later Tuesday into Tuesday night.

For sensible weather, have continued to depict daily rounds of
primarily afternoon into nighttime isolated to scattered to
occasionally numerous showers and thunderstorms over many
locations, with the highest potential of more widespread
precipitation over the CWA anticipated Wednesday and Thursday.

In addition, at this time, the parameters for severe thunderstorms
have decreased during the Tuesday into Saturday time-frame,
although a few stronger thunderstorms will be possible over
primarily eastern locations at times. Also, recent burn scars will
continue to need to be monitored closely, especially during the
mid to late week time-frame as the potential for locally heavier
rain increases.

Longer term computer simulations then begin to diverge on
meteorological solutions by this weekend with recent 03.00 ECMWF
simulation attempting to keep majority of the CWA dry this weekend
as systems remain well to the north of Colorado during this
time-frame, while the recent 03.06 GFS simulation suggests that
Saturday should be precipitation-free, with precipitation chances
increasing by Sunday afternoon as another system impacts Colorado.
For now, will depict isolated primarily higher terrain pops
during Sunday afternoon with some stronger storms not out of the
question during Sunday afternoon.

Finally, above seasonal temperatures are expected to continue over
the majority of southern Colorado into Tuesday and then again by
the weekend, with near or below seasonal temperatures anticipated
Wednesday and Thursday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday afternoon)
Issued at 1123 AM MDT Mon Jun 3 2019

Showers and thunderstorms will be possible across much of the area
this afternoon and evening, and could move into the vicinity of
KCOS, KALS and KPUB. Gusty outflow winds, lightning and brief
moderate to heavy rain will be the main storm risks. Otherwise,
VFR conditions are expected.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

AVIATION...28

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
1128 AM MDT Mon Jun 3 2019

COZ058>089-093>099-041730-
Western Mosquito Range/East Lake County Above 11000 Feet-
Leadville Vicinity/Lake County Below 11000 Feet-
Eastern Sawatch Mountains Above 11000 Feet-
Western Chaffee County Between 9000 and 11000 Feet-
Central Chaffee County Below 9000 Feet-
Western Mosquito Range/East Chaffee County Above 9000 Feet-
Saguache County West of Continental Divide Below 10000 Feet-
Saguache County East of Continental Divide Below 10000 Feet-
La Garita Mountains Above 10000 Feet-
Upper Rio Grande Valley/Eastern San Juan Mountains Below
10000 Feet-Eastern San Juan Mountains Above 10000 Feet-
Del Norte Vicinity/Northern San Luis Valley Below 8500 Feet-
Alamosa  Vicinity/Central San Luis Valley Below 8500 Feet-
Southern San Luis Valley-
Northern Sangre de Cristo Mountains Between 8500 And 11000 Feet-
Northern Sangre de Cristo Mountains Above 11000 Feet-
Southern Sangre de Cristo Mountains Between 7500 and 11000 Feet-
Southern Sangre de Cristo Mountains Above 11000 Feet-
Northwestern Fremont County Above 8500 Feet-
Western/Central Fremont County Below 8500 Feet-
Wet Mountain Valley Below 8500 Feet-
Wet Mountains between 6300 and 10000 Feet-
Wet Mountains Above 10000 Feet-
Teller County/Rampart Range Above 7500 Feet/Pikes Peak Between
7500 And 11000 Feet-Pikes Peak Above 11000 Feet-
Canon City Vicinity/Eastern Fremont County-
Northern El Paso County/Monument Ridge/Rampart Range Below
7500 Feet-
Colorado Springs Vicinity/Southern El Paso County/Rampart Range
Below 7400 Feet-Pueblo Vicinity/Pueblo County Below 6300 Feet-
Walsenburg Vicinity/Upper Huerfano River Basin Below 7500 Feet-
Trinidad Vicinity/Western Las Animas County Below 7500 Feet-
Crowley County-La Junta Vicinity/Otero County-
Eastern Las Animas County-Western Kiowa County-
Eastern Kiowa County-Las Animas Vicinity/Bent County-
Lamar Vicinity/Prowers County-Springfield Vicinity/Baca County-
1128 AM MDT Mon Jun 3 2019

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of central...east
central...south central and southeast Colorado.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight

Isolated to scattered thunderstorms will be possible across southern
Colorado through this evening. A few storms could become severe
over the far eastern plains, and in the San Luis Valley. Hail up
to the size of half dollars, and wind gusts up to 60 mph, will be
the primary severe storm risks.

The main threats with thunderstorms across the remainder of the area
will be cloud to ground lightning, wind gusts up to 50 mph, brief
moderate to heavy rainfall, and some of the stronger storms could
produce hail up to the size of nickels.

Warm temperatures have lead to increased snowmelt across the high
country, and the water in creeks, streams and rivers, in and near
the high country, will run high and fast the next few days.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday

Isolated to scattered, primarily afternoon and evening
thunderstorms, are expected Tuesday through Friday, and then
again on Sunday. The primary storm threats from these will be
cloud to ground lightning, locally moderate to heavy rain, hail up
to the size of nickels, and wind gusts up to 50 mph at times.

In addition, storms that develop over the newer burn scars,
especially the Junkins, Hayden Pass and Spring burn scar areas
could cause localized flash flooding.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Weather conditions that meet reporting criteria for spotters will be
possible this afternoon and evening across all of southeast and
south central Colorado.

28/28

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
118 PM MDT Mon Jun 3 2019

COZ088-031945-
Trinidad Vicinity/Western Las Animas County Below 7500 Ft CO-
118 PM MDT Mon Jun 3 2019

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR CENTRAL LAS ANIMAS COUNTY UNTIL
145 PM MDT...

At 117 PM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 9
miles west of Tyrone, or 20 miles north of Trinidad, moving east at
10 mph.

Nickel size hail and winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Tyrone.

LAT...LON 3739 10441 3749 10449 3763 10426 3738 10413
TIME...MOT...LOC 1917Z 248DEG 10KT 3745 10438

28

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
138 PM MDT Mon Jun 3 2019

COZ084-085-032030-
Colorado Springs Vicinity/Southern El Paso County/Rampart Range Below
7400 Ft CO-
Northern El Paso County/Monument Ridge/Rampart Range Below 7500 Ft
CO-
138 PM MDT Mon Jun 3 2019

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHWESTERN EL PASO COUNTY UNTIL
230 PM MDT...

At 138 PM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from 6 miles northeast of Gleneagle to Colorado
Springs. Movement was northeast at 25 mph.

Half inch hail and winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with
these storms.

Locations impacted include...
Colorado Springs, Black Forest, Falcon and Cimarron Hills.

LAT...LON 3913 10445 3892 10455 3880 10487 3913 10477
TIME...MOT...LOC 1938Z 232DEG 23KT 3910 10474 3886 10483

28

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
154 PM MDT MON JUN 3 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0153 PM     HAIL             6 SW BLACK FOREST       38.94N 104.77W
06/03/2019  M0.88 INCH       EL PASO            CO   PUBLIC

&&

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
205 PM MDT Mon Jun 3 2019

COZ069-072-073-077-078-032030-
Western/Central Fremont County Below 8500 Ft CO-
Wet Mountain Valley Below 8500 Ft CO-
Del Norte Vicinity/Northern San Luis Valley Below 8500 Ft CO-
Northern Sangre de Cristo Mountains Between 8500 And 11000 Ft CO-
Northern Sangre de Cristo Mountains above 11000 Ft CO-
205 PM MDT Mon Jun 3 2019

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHWESTERN FREMONT...
NORTHWESTERN CUSTER AND NORTHEASTERN SAGUACHE COUNTIES UNTIL 230 PM
MDT...

At 205 PM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 7
miles southeast of Villa Grove, or 9 miles southwest of Hayden Pass
Burn Scar, moving northeast at 20 mph.

Penny size hail and wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Hayden Pass Burn Scar.

LAT...LON 3809 10586 3823 10596 3836 10573 3817 10560
TIME...MOT...LOC 2005Z 237DEG 18KT 3818 10585

MW

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
208 PM MDT MON JUN 3 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0206 PM     HAIL             5 NNW PETERSON AFB      38.89N 104.73W
06/03/2019  M1.00 INCH       EL PASO            CO   TRAINED SPOTTER

0205 PM     HAIL             6 NNW PETERSON AFB      38.91N 104.74W
06/03/2019  M1.00 INCH       EL PASO            CO   TRAINED SPOTTER

0202 PM     HAIL             6 NNE COLORADO SPRINGS  38.90N 104.78W
06/03/2019  M1.00 INCH       EL PASO            CO   PUBLIC

&&

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
211 PM MDT Mon Jun 3 2019

COZ086>088-032100-
Pueblo Vicinity/Pueblo County Below 6300 Feet CO-
Walsenburg Vicinity/Upper Huerfano River Basin Below 7500 Ft CO-
Trinidad Vicinity/Western Las Animas County Below 7500 Ft CO-
211 PM MDT Mon Jun 3 2019

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR EAST CENTRAL HUERFANO...NORTH
CENTRAL LAS ANIMAS AND SOUTH CENTRAL PUEBLO COUNTIES UNTIL 300 PM
MDT...

At 211 PM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 13
miles northeast of Aguilar, or 27 miles north of Trinidad, moving
northeast at 20 mph.

Nickel size hail and winds in excess of 30 mph will be possible with
this storm.

This storm will remain over mainly rural areas of east central
Huerfano, north central Las Animas and south central Pueblo Counties.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 900 PM MDT for
southeastern Colorado.

LAT...LON 3744 10446 3755 10464 3787 10441 3765 10406
TIME...MOT...LOC 2011Z 216DEG 16KT 3756 10450

PGW