Severe Thunderstorm Warning 233, NWS Pueblo, CO

409 
WWUS55 KPUB 302049
SVSPUB

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
249 PM MDT Fri Aug 30 2019

COC071-302115-
/O.CON.KPUB.SV.W.0233.000000T0000Z-190830T2115Z/
Las Animas CO-
249 PM MDT Fri Aug 30 2019

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 315 PM MDT
FOR SOUTHWESTERN LAS ANIMAS COUNTY...

At 248 PM MDT, a severe thunderstorm was located near Segundo, or 16
miles west of Trinidad, moving southeast at 5 mph.

HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts and quarter size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Hail damage to vehicles is expected. Expect wind damage to 
         roofs, siding, and trees.

Locations impacted include...
Cokedale, Segundo, and Boncarbo. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a
building.

&&

LAT...LON 3710 10482 3728 10491 3741 10459 3716 10447
TIME...MOT...LOC 2048Z 320DEG 5KT 3720 10481 

HAIL...1.00IN
WIND...60MPH
 
$$

KT

384 
WWUS55 KPUB 302058 CCA
SVSPUB

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
258 PM MDT Fri Aug 30 2019

COC071-302115-
/O.COR.KPUB.SV.W.0233.000000T0000Z-190830T2115Z/
Las Animas CO-
258 PM MDT Fri Aug 30 2019

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 315 PM MDT
FOR SOUTHWESTERN LAS ANIMAS COUNTY...

At 257 PM MDT, a severe thunderstorm was located near Segundo, or 16
miles west of Trinidad, moving southeast at 5 mph.

HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts and penny size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Expect damage to roofs, siding, and trees.

Locations impacted include...
Cokedale, Segundo and Boncarbo. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a
building.

&&

LAT...LON 3710 10482 3728 10491 3741 10459 3716 10447
TIME...MOT...LOC 2048Z 320DEG 5KT 3720 10481 

HAIL...0.75IN
WIND...60MPH
 
$$

KT

391 
WWUS55 KPUB 302106
SVSPUB

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
306 PM MDT Fri Aug 30 2019

COC071-302115-
/O.EXP.KPUB.SV.W.0233.000000T0000Z-190830T2115Z/
Las Animas CO-
306 PM MDT Fri Aug 30 2019

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR SOUTHWESTERN LAS ANIMAS COUNTY
WILL EXPIRE AT 315 PM MDT...
                
The storm which prompted the warning has weakened below severe
limits, and no longer poses an immediate threat to life or property.
Therefore, the warning will be allowed to expire.  However heavy rain
is still possible with this thunderstorm.

LAT...LON 3710 10482 3728 10491 3741 10459 3716 10447
TIME...MOT...LOC 2105Z 320DEG 5KT 3718 10479 

$$

KT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
1101 AM MDT Fri Aug 30 2019

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 345 AM MDT Fri Aug 30 2019

Currently...

With the passage of the cool front yesterday afternoon, low level
moisture has recovered over the plains with dewpoints in the upper
50s across most of the eastern plains and lower 50 dewpoints across
the I-25 corridor region. Over the higher terrain dewpoints were
still in the 20s and 30s.

Skies were clear over most of the area at 3 am this morning. the
only exception was parts of Teller and El Paso county were a broken
mid level deck was noted, and an isolated pocket of low clouds were
in the greater KLHX area. Ambient temps were n the 60s most of the
plains and 50s valleys.

Today...

With modest synoptically driven upslope flow over the region, and 50
dewpts over the region, conditions will become favorable for
scattered showers and thunderstorms to develop over the eastern
mountains early this afternoon and move over the plains later this
afternoon and evening. With modest NW flow aloft, along with a weak
disturbance in the mid level flow, deep shear will be in the 30 knot
range and CAPE values will be in the 1000 to 1500 range. Likewise, a
few of the storms today will be strong to marginally severe. Latest
HRRR guidance shows storms forming over the Pikes Peak region during
the 2-3 pm time frame and moving southeast as the afternoon
progresses.

Storms should move steadily east today given the westerly flow
aloft, so the risk for burn scar flooding is less today as storms
should move off the higher terrain rather quickly.

Max temps will be noticeably cooler today, with highs mainly in the
80s across the plains and valleys.

Tonight...

Storms should move steadily east across the plains this evening.
guidance does indicate some of the storms may linger over the far
eastern plains and near the CO/NM border into the early morning
hours. The remainder of the region should remain dry.

The main concern late tonight will be low clouds over the plains.
point soundings showing it will remain quite moist and saturated
over parts of the plains tonight. Once again how far west will the
low clouds get? This question will be dependent on how much
convection fires over the far eastern plains tonight and how much
outflow pushes west. For now have cloud getting back as far west as
KLHX. \/HOdanish

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday)
Issued at 345 AM MDT Fri Aug 30 2019

Models are in decent agreement through the extended period.
Ensemble spreads are generally small with high pressure remaining
in place for much of the extended period.

Saturday through Monday...high pressure will be centered over the
Four Corners region into early next week. This will also for hot
conditions to continue across the region with afternoon highs each
day reaching into the mid to upper 90s. Would not be surprised to
see a few lower 100s out across the Plains, especially Sunday and
Monday. As for precipitation, model guidance keeps a majority of
shower and thunderstorm activity confined to the San Juan range
and Southern Sangre de Cristo Mountains. Convection will be
diurnally driven and lack of steering flow should keep
thunderstorms tied to the terrain. There may be a couple of
thunderstorms possible along the New Mexico border on Saturday.

Tuesday...an upper level trough passing well to the north will
send a cold front into southern Colorado by late morning. This
will bring slightly cooler temperatures to the region with upper
80s to lower 90s. The front will also bring better chances for
showers and thunderstorms over the mountains. A few of these
storms will likely shift east across the Plains through the
overnight hours.

Wednesday into Friday...high pressure will build over Colorado
with a return to monsoonal flow across the area. Temperatures will
also warm back up into the 90s for the lower elevations. We will
also see increased chances for showers and thunderstorms. Initial
development is expected over the mountains, but should shift east
into the Plains through the overnight hours. Burn scars will need
to be monitored for flash flooding.  Mozley

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Saturday afternoon)
Issued at 1042 AM MDT Fri Aug 30 2019

Stratus has eroded along the I-25 corridor with VFR conditions at
all three terminals. Thunderstorms will develop over the mountains
during the afternoon and move off into the adjacent plains during
the late afternoon and evening. KCOS and KPUB have the best chance
for TSRA to impact the terminals though it will be hit or miss.
Storms could become strong with the potential for small hail and
gusty erratic winds. Updates may be required should one of these
stronger storms head towards the terminals. Thunderstorms should
push east of the TAF sites by 02z with VFR conditions through the
evening. Another easterly wind surge will push stratus westward
into the I-25 corridor tonight. Once again, KPUB is most likely to
see MVFR to high end IFR conditions for a brief time Saturday
morning. Stratus deck may stay just east of KCOS but this will be
prone to change pending strength of easterly push from central
plains thunderstorms.

KALS will remain VFR with winds under 15 kts.  -KT

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...HODANISH
LONG TERM...MOZLEY
AVIATION...KT

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
1104 AM MDT Fri Aug 30 2019

COZ058>089-093>099-311715-
Western Mosquito Range/East Lake County Above 11000 Feet-
Leadville Vicinity/Lake County Below 11000 Feet-
Eastern Sawatch Mountains Above 11000 Feet-
Western Chaffee County Between 9000 and 11000 Feet-
Central Chaffee County Below 9000 Feet-
Western Mosquito Range/East Chaffee County Above 9000 Feet-
Saguache County West of Continental Divide Below 10000 Feet-
Saguache County East of Continental Divide Below 10000 Feet-
La Garita Mountains Above 10000 Feet-
Upper Rio Grande Valley/Eastern San Juan Mountains Below
10000 Feet-Eastern San Juan Mountains Above 10000 Feet-
Del Norte Vicinity/Northern San Luis Valley Below 8500 Feet-
Alamosa  Vicinity/Central San Luis Valley Below 8500 Feet-
Southern San Luis Valley-
Northern Sangre de Cristo Mountains Between 8500 And 11000 Feet-
Northern Sangre de Cristo Mountains Above 11000 Feet-
Southern Sangre de Cristo Mountains Between 7500 and 11000 Feet-
Southern Sangre de Cristo Mountains Above 11000 Feet-
Northwestern Fremont County Above 8500 Feet-
Western/Central Fremont County Below 8500 Feet-
Wet Mountain Valley Below 8500 Feet-
Wet Mountains between 6300 and 10000 Feet-
Wet Mountains Above 10000 Feet-
Teller County/Rampart Range Above 7500 Feet/Pikes Peak Between
7500 And 11000 Feet-Pikes Peak Above 11000 Feet-
Canon City Vicinity/Eastern Fremont County-
Northern El Paso County/Monument Ridge/Rampart Range Below
7500 Feet-
Colorado Springs Vicinity/Southern El Paso County/Rampart Range
Below 7400 Feet-Pueblo Vicinity/Pueblo County Below 6300 Feet-
Walsenburg Vicinity/Upper Huerfano River Basin Below 7500 Feet-
Trinidad Vicinity/Western Las Animas County Below 7500 Feet-
Crowley County-La Junta Vicinity/Otero County-
Eastern Las Animas County-Western Kiowa County-
Eastern Kiowa County-Las Animas Vicinity/Bent County-
Lamar Vicinity/Prowers County-Springfield Vicinity/Baca County-
1104 AM MDT Fri Aug 30 2019

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of central...east
central...south central and southeast Colorado.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

A few strong to marginally severe thunderstorms are expected to
develop across the east slopes of the southern mountains by mid
afternoon, and move across the southeast plains late this
afternoon and evening. The primary severe weather threats will be
hail up to the size of quarters and winds up to 60 mph. All of
the storms today will be capable of producing locally heavy rain
and dangerous cloud to ground lightning.

Over the interior mountains and valleys, isolated high based
thunderstorms will be possible this afternoon with lightning and
wind gusts up to 40 mph the primary storm risks.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday

Isolated showers and thunderstorms will be possible each afternoon
and evening Saturday through Monday. The focus for storms will be
mainly over the San Juan Mountain Range and Southern Sangre de
Cristo Mountains. Lightning and gusty outflow winds will be the
main threats.

Shower and thunderstorm coverage will increase for Tuesday into
Thursday, initially over the mountains, and spreading east across
the Plains for the evening hours. Locally heavy rainfall will be
possible with stronger storms, leading to an increased risk of
flash flooding on burn scars. Lightning, small hail and gust winds
will also be possible.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Weather conditions that meet reporting criteria for spotters will be
possible over southeast plains this afternoon and evening.

31/23

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
206 PM MDT Fri Aug 30 2019

COZ074-088-302045-
Southern Sangre De Cristo Mountains Between 7500 and 11000 Ft CO-
Trinidad Vicinity/Western Las Animas County Below 7500 Ft CO-
206 PM MDT Fri Aug 30 2019

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTH CENTRAL LAS ANIMAS COUNTY
UNTIL 245 PM MDT...

At 206 PM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 7
miles southeast of Segundo, or 13 miles southwest of Trinidad, moving
northeast at 10 mph.

Half inch hail and wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with this
storm.

Locations impacted include...
Trinidad, Cokedale, Starkville and Raton Pass.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

&&

LAT...LON 3709 10481 3728 10448 3700 10426 3699 10432
      3699 10475
TIME...MOT...LOC 2006Z 243DEG 9KT 3704 10468

KT

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
232 PM MDT Fri Aug 30 2019

COZ074-088-302115-
Southern Sangre De Cristo Mountains Between 7500 and 11000 Ft CO-
Trinidad Vicinity/Western Las Animas County Below 7500 Ft CO-
232 PM MDT Fri Aug 30 2019

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHWESTERN LAS ANIMAS COUNTY
UNTIL 315 PM MDT...

At 231 PM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Boncarbo, or 13 miles west of Trinidad, moving east at 10 mph.

Half inch hail and wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with this
storm.

Locations impacted include...
Trinidad, Cokedale, Segundo, Gulnare and Boncarbo.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

&&

LAT...LON 3709 10482 3728 10491 3742 10457 3715 10444
TIME...MOT...LOC 2031Z 258DEG 10KT 3723 10474

KT