Severe Thunderstorm Warning 217, NWS Pueblo, CO

237 
WWUS55 KPUB 232034
SVSPUB

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
234 PM MDT Fri Aug 23 2019

COC041-232115-
/O.CON.KPUB.SV.W.0217.000000T0000Z-190823T2115Z/
El Paso CO-
234 PM MDT Fri Aug 23 2019

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 315 PM MDT
FOR NORTHEASTERN EL PASO COUNTY...

At 231 PM MDT, a severe thunderstorm was located near Peyton, or 25
miles northeast of Colorado Springs, moving east at 10 mph.

HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts and quarter size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Hail damage to vehicles is possible as well as the 
         potential for wind damage to roofs, siding, and trees.

Locations impacted include...
Calhan and Peyton. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a
building.

Cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm. Move indoors 
immediately. Lightning is one of nature's leading killers. Remember, 
if you can hear thunder, you are close enough to be struck by 
lightning.

Heavy rainfall is occurring with this storm, and may lead to flash 
flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded roadways.

&&

LAT...LON 3893 10449 3913 10451 3913 10423 3890 10422
TIME...MOT...LOC 2031Z 271DEG 11KT 3903 10442 

TORNADO...POSSIBLE
HAIL...1.00IN
WIND...60MPH
 
$$

047 
WWUS55 KPUB 232045
SVSPUB

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
245 PM MDT Fri Aug 23 2019

COC041-232115-
/O.CON.KPUB.SV.W.0217.000000T0000Z-190823T2115Z/
El Paso CO-
245 PM MDT Fri Aug 23 2019

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 315 PM MDT
FOR NORTHEASTERN EL PASO COUNTY...

At 244 PM MDT, a severe thunderstorm was located near Calhan, or 28 
miles northeast of Colorado Springs, moving east at 15 mph.

HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts and quarter size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Hail damage to vehicles is expected. Expect wind damage to 
         roofs, siding, and trees.

Locations impacted include...
Calhan and Peyton. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a
building.

Cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Move indoors immediately. Lightning is one of nature's leading
killers. Remember, if you can hear thunder, you are close enough to
be struck by lightning.

Heavy rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may lead to 
flash flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded roadways.

&&

LAT...LON 3893 10447 3913 10449 3913 10423 3890 10422
TIME...MOT...LOC 2044Z 269DEG 12KT 3903 10435 

TORNADO...POSSIBLE
HAIL...1.00IN
WIND...60MPH
 
$$

914 
WWUS55 KPUB 232058
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Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
258 PM MDT Fri Aug 23 2019

COC041-232115-
/O.CON.KPUB.SV.W.0217.000000T0000Z-190823T2115Z/
El Paso CO-
258 PM MDT Fri Aug 23 2019

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 315 PM MDT
FOR NORTHEASTERN EL PASO COUNTY...

At 257 PM MDT, a severe thunderstorm was located near Calhan, or 31 
miles northeast of Colorado Springs, moving east at 15 mph.

HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts and quarter size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Hail damage to vehicles is expected. Expect wind damage to 
         roofs, siding, and trees.

Locations impacted include...
Calhan.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a
building.

Cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Move indoors immediately. Lightning is one of nature's leading
killers. Remember, if you can hear thunder, you are close enough to
be struck by lightning.

Heavy rainfall is occurring with this storm, and may lead to flash 
flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded roadways.

&&

LAT...LON 3892 10438 3913 10433 3913 10423 3890 10422
TIME...MOT...LOC 2057Z 280DEG 14KT 3902 10428 

TORNADO...POSSIBLE
HAIL...1.00IN
WIND...60MPH
 
$$

733 
WWUS55 KPUB 232108
SVSPUB

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
308 PM MDT Fri Aug 23 2019

COC041-232115-
/O.CON.KPUB.SV.W.0217.000000T0000Z-190823T2115Z/
El Paso CO-
308 PM MDT Fri Aug 23 2019

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 315 PM MDT
FOR NORTHEASTERN EL PASO COUNTY...

At 307 PM MDT, a severe thunderstorm was located near Calhan, or 33
miles east of Colorado Springs, moving east at 15 mph.

HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts and quarter size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Hail damage to vehicles is expected. Expect wind damage to 
         roofs, siding, and trees.

This severe thunderstorm will remain over mainly rural areas of
northeastern El Paso County.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a
building.

Cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Move indoors immediately. Lightning is one of nature's leading
killers. Remember, if you can hear thunder, you are close enough to
be struck by lightning.

Heavy rainfall is occurring with this storm, and may lead to flash 
flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded roadways.

&&

LAT...LON 3891 10429 3913 10426 3913 10423 3890 10422
TIME...MOT...LOC 2107Z 286DEG 14KT 3900 10423 

TORNADO...POSSIBLE
HAIL...1.00IN
WIND...60MPH
 
$$

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
1125 AM MDT Fri Aug 23 2019

.UPDATE...
Issued at 957 AM MDT Fri Aug 23 2019

Updated forecast to add severe weather wording to NDFD products
for areas generally east of a line from Calhan to Fowler to Kim.
\/Hodanish

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 346 AM MDT Fri Aug 23 2019

...Strong to Severe Storms Possible for the Southeast Plains...

Current water vapor imagery and upper air analysis is indicating
increasing west to southwest flow aloft across the region ahead of a
short wave trough translating across the Intermountain West at this
time. GOES blended total precipitable water product is indicating
PWATS around 0.5 inches across the Great Basin and into western
Colorado, increasing to around 1 inch across the southeast Plains
and to around 1.5 inches across south central Oklahoma and Kansas,
with IR imagery indicating mid and upper level clouds spreading
across the state at this time. The westerly flow aloft is developing
lee troughing across the Plains, with current 3 am conditions at PUB
and TAD indicating weak westerly winds and dew pts of 47F and 44F,
respectively, where as at 3 am LHX and LAA are indicating weak
easterly winds and dew pts of 60F and 64F, respectively.

No big changes in forecast thinking for today and tonight, as latest
models continue to indicate weak to moderate westerly flow aloft
spreading across the Rockies today, with flow becoming more
northwest through tonight, as the upper trough continues to
translate east across the northern Rockies today and into the Upper
Midwest later tonight. With steep lapse rates and uvv associated
with the passing system, should see isolated to scattered higher
based storms developing across the higher terrain later this morning
and afternoon, with storms moving east across the adjacent plains
and into a more unstable environment across the far southeast Plains
through the afternoon and evening. Models indicating the far
southeast Plains to be initially capped into the early afternoon,
though with uvv with the passing system, could see a few strong to
severe storms developing along and east of the lee trough/dryline
across the far southeast Plains with mixed layer capes of 1500 to
3000 j/kg and bulk shears of 25-40 kts, with large hail up to 1 1/2
inches in diameter and damaging winds up to 70 mph possible,
generally east of La Junta. The latest SPC Day 1 outlook has a
marginal risk east of the I-25 Corridor and a slight risk across
Baca, Bent Prowers and Kiowa Counties. With ample moisture along and
east of the lee trough, heavy rain and possible flash flooding will
also be a concern across the far southeast Plains this afternoon and
evening. Storms and skies clear from west to east through the
evening, with subsident northwest flow taking hold across the region
behind the passing system.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday)
Issued at 346 AM MDT Fri Aug 23 2019

Upper ridge remains over the ern Pacific Sat, while weak upper
level trough drifts eastward through the central plains. Forcing
for precip with the plains trough will be to the east of CO on
Sat, though enough residual moisture may linger over the ern
mountains for some very isolated weak convection late in the
afternoon. Surface and mid level cool air will be slow to retreat
Sat afternoon, keeping max temps along and east of I-25 in the the
upper 80s to mid 90s for another day. On Sunday, strong jet over
the Pacific NW begins to dig into the nrn Rockies, bringing an
increase in w-nw flow across the region. Combination of dry air
mass and strengthening winds may produce a period of critical fire
weather conditions over the area for several hours Sunday
afternoon, with strongest winds along and north of Highway 50.
Deep mixing Sunday will boost max temps upward, and a few spots
across the lower Arkansas Valley will climb back toward the 100f
mark.

Cold front then drops through the area Monday as nrn Rockies upper
wave slides eastward toward along Canadian border. Models aren't
particularly enthused about thunderstorm chances behind the
front, though ECMWF at least has some lighter precip late Mon
afternoon and evening along and east of the mountains as upslope
flow deepens. Slightly better precip chances may develop Mon night
into Tue as front stalls to our south and lift strengthens along
and north of the boundary, though again ECMWF is much wetter than
past couple runs of the GFS. Forecast at this point has some low
pops over the eastern mountains and plains from Mon night into Tue
night, though confidence is rather low in any precip developing.
Max temps over the ern mountains and plains will cool back toward
seasonal averages both Mon and Tue, while mountains and interior
valleys see little change. Ridge then slides eastward toward the
srn Rockies Wed-Fri, while upper trough deepens over the Great
Lakes through the period. Nrn stream eventually sends another cold
front south into the region late week, though GFS is at least a
day faster and much wetter than the Euro. Overall, forecast trends
slowly toward cooler and wetter conditions by the end of the
week, with timing issues still to be decided.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Saturday afternoon)
Issued at 1113 AM MDT Fri Aug 23 2019

VFR conditions anticipated during the next 24 hours at all 3 taf
sites; KPUb, KALS and KCOS. Isolated convection may occur this
afternoon at the taf sites but should be done with by 00 UTC. No
thunder is expected tomorrow over the taf sites. Some of the
guidance is showing potential for some low cigs at KCOS and KPUB
this late evening/later tonight, but for now believe this may be
a bit overdone.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

UPDATE...HODANISH
SHORT TERM...MW
LONG TERM...PETERSEN
AVIATION...HODANISH

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
1131 AM MDT Fri Aug 23 2019

COZ058>089-093>099-241745-
Western Mosquito Range/East Lake County Above 11000 Feet-
Leadville Vicinity/Lake County Below 11000 Feet-
Eastern Sawatch Mountains Above 11000 Feet-
Western Chaffee County Between 9000 and 11000 Feet-
Central Chaffee County Below 9000 Feet-
Western Mosquito Range/East Chaffee County Above 9000 Feet-
Saguache County West of Continental Divide Below 10000 Feet-
Saguache County East of Continental Divide Below 10000 Feet-
La Garita Mountains Above 10000 Feet-
Upper Rio Grande Valley/Eastern San Juan Mountains Below
10000 Feet-Eastern San Juan Mountains Above 10000 Feet-
Del Norte Vicinity/Northern San Luis Valley Below 8500 Feet-
Alamosa  Vicinity/Central San Luis Valley Below 8500 Feet-
Southern San Luis Valley-
Northern Sangre de Cristo Mountains Between 8500 And 11000 Feet-
Northern Sangre de Cristo Mountains Above 11000 Feet-
Southern Sangre de Cristo Mountains Between 7500 and 11000 Feet-
Southern Sangre de Cristo Mountains Above 11000 Feet-
Northwestern Fremont County Above 8500 Feet-
Western/Central Fremont County Below 8500 Feet-
Wet Mountain Valley Below 8500 Feet-
Wet Mountains between 6300 and 10000 Feet-
Wet Mountains Above 10000 Feet-
Teller County/Rampart Range Above 7500 Feet/Pikes Peak Between
7500 And 11000 Feet-Pikes Peak Above 11000 Feet-
Canon City Vicinity/Eastern Fremont County-
Northern El Paso County/Monument Ridge/Rampart Range Below
7500 Feet-
Colorado Springs Vicinity/Southern El Paso County/Rampart Range
Below 7400 Feet-Pueblo Vicinity/Pueblo County Below 6300 Feet-
Walsenburg Vicinity/Upper Huerfano River Basin Below 7500 Feet-
Trinidad Vicinity/Western Las Animas County Below 7500 Feet-
Crowley County-La Junta Vicinity/Otero County-
Eastern Las Animas County-Western Kiowa County-
Eastern Kiowa County-Las Animas Vicinity/Bent County-
Lamar Vicinity/Prowers County-Springfield Vicinity/Baca County-
1131 AM MDT Fri Aug 23 2019

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of central...east
central...south central and southeast Colorado.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight

Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms will be possible
over and near the higher terrain early this afternoon, with
storms spreading east into a more unstable atmosphere across the
southeast Plains through the afternoon and evening. A few severe
storms will be possible across the southeast Plains, generally
east of line from Calhan...to Fowler...to Kim, with hail up to
the size of ping pong balls and damaging winds up to 70 mph the
main storm threats. However, heavy rain and localized flash
flooding and an isolated tornado can not be ruled out across the
far southeast plains late this afternoon and evening. The main
storm threats from most storms through this evening will be
lightning and gusty outflow winds up to 50 mph.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday

Warm and dry weather will develop Saturday and Sunday, and with
strengthening winds Sunday afternoon, fire danger will increase
over much of the area. Thunderstorm chances will return to the
region beginning Monday, and continuing through much of the week.
The main threats from any storms through this period will be
lightning and gusty winds, with a chance for locally heavy
rainfall developing toward the end of the week.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Weather conditions that meet reporting criteria for spotters will be
possible this afternoon and evening across the southeast Plains.

34/34

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
102 PM MDT Fri Aug 23 2019

COZ094-232030-
Eastern Las Animas County CO-
102 PM MDT Fri Aug 23 2019

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHEASTERN LAS ANIMAS COUNTY
UNTIL 230 PM MDT...

At 1258 PM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking a developing strong
thunderstorm 15 miles southwest of Kim, or 28 miles northeast of Des
Moines.  Additional developing storms were near Trinchera.  These
storms were moving to the east northeast at 15 mph

Half inch hail and wind gusts around 50 mph will be possible with
these developing storms.

Locations impacted include...
Kim, Branson, Trinchera and open country of southern Las Animas
county.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Heavy rainfall is also possible with these developing storms, and
may lead to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through
flooded roadways.

These storms may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional
information and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

&&

LAT...LON 3719 10404 3743 10309 3700 10309 3700 10404
TIME...MOT...LOC 1858Z 249DEG 18KT 3713 10359

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
127 PM MDT Fri Aug 23 2019

COZ081-084-085-232030-
Colorado Springs Vicinity/Southern El Paso County/Rampart Range Below
7400 Ft CO-
Teller County/Rampart Range above 7500fT/Pike's Peak Between 7500 And
11000 Ft CO-
Northern El Paso County/Monument Ridge/Rampart Range Below 7500 Ft
CO-
127 PM MDT Fri Aug 23 2019

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHWESTERN EL PASO COUNTY UNTIL
230 PM MDT...

At 126 PM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking a developing strong
thunderstorm 8 miles southwest of Fountain, or 14 miles south of
Colorado Springs, moving northeast at 15 mph.

Half inch hail and wind gusts around 50 mph will be possible with
this developing storm.

Locations impacted include...
Southeastern Colorado Springs, Fountain, Stratmoor, Schriever AFB,
Fort Carson, Security, Peterson AFB, Security-Widefield, Falcon and
Cimarron Hills.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Heavy rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may lead to
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

&&

LAT...LON 3853 10493 3869 10494 3894 10461 3867 10440
TIME...MOT...LOC 1926Z 230DEG 15KT 3863 10485

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
159 PM MDT Fri Aug 23 2019

COZ084-232130-
Northern El Paso County/Monument Ridge/Rampart Range Below 7500 Ft
CO-
159 PM MDT Fri Aug 23 2019

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHEASTERN EL PASO COUNTY UNTIL
330 PM MDT...

At 158 PM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking a developing strong
thunderstorm near Peyton, or 21 miles northeast of Colorado Springs,
moving east at 15 mph.

Nickel size hail and wind gusts around 55 mph will be possible with
this developing storm.

Locations impacted include...
Calhan, Ramah and Peyton.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Heavy rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may lead to
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm. Lightning
can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe shelter
inside a building or vehicle.

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

&&

LAT...LON 3899 10406 3896 10461 3913 10470 3913 10405
TIME...MOT...LOC 1958Z 264DEG 11KT 3906 10455

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
212 PM MDT Fri Aug 23 2019

COZ086-232145-
Pueblo Vicinity/Pueblo County Below 6300 Feet CO-
212 PM MDT Fri Aug 23 2019

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHEASTERN PUEBLO COUNTY UNTIL
345 PM MDT...

At 211 PM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 20
miles south of Salt Creek, or 22 miles south of Pueblo, moving east
at 10 mph.

Half inch hail and wind gusts around 50 mph will be possible with
this storm.

This storm will remain over mainly rural areas of southeastern Pueblo
County.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Heavy rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may lead to
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm. lightning can
strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe shelter inside
a building or vehicle.

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

&&

LAT...LON 3791 10465 3804 10464 3806 10407 3774 10407
TIME...MOT...LOC 2011Z 276DEG 7KT 3795 10457