Severe Thunderstorm Warning 203, NWS Pueblo, CO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
259 PM MDT Wed Aug 14 2019

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Thursday)
Issued at 238 PM MDT Wed Aug 14 2019

Some isolated showers/tstms will be possible into the early evening
over the mtns and high valleys, but the I-25 corridor and eastern
plains will be the main focus area for storms this evening as a weak
weather disturbance moves across the area.  Isolated to scattered
storms are expected across portions of the I-25 corridor and plains,
with the are east plains likely see the best chances.  The HRRR
shows only some isolated storms,  The NAM Nest has a little more
coverage over the plains, with the potential for some strong storms
early in the evening over Otero and Bent Counties, and then after
about 7 pm, some strong storms moving into Kiowa and eastern Prowers
Counties.  The earlier run of the NAM has showers/tstms continuing
over the far southeast plains into the late night hours, but the 18Z
run, as well as the lastest HRRR, shows activity ending by about
midnight or 1 AM.  SPC still has the southeast plains outlooked for
the possibility of severe storms, with the main threats being large
hail and damaging wind gusts, but with shear values of 40+ kts
cannot rule out an isolated tornado.

On Thu a northerly surge moves through eastern CO by around midday,
and conditions look drier.  Dew points this afternoon over the
southeast plains are in the 50s, but Thu afternoon they are expected
to drop into the 30s along the I-25 corridor, with some lingering
lower 50s over the eastern border area, while over the high country
dew points should be mostly in the 20s to lower 30s. There will
likely still be a be enough moisture and instability for a just a
few showers and tstms. Temps on Thu will be warmer across the
plains, with 90s for highs, with some locations along the Arkansas
River Valley see highs nearing 100.  The San Luis Valley and the
Upper Arkansas River Valleys should see highs in the lower to mid
80s.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday night through Wednesday)
Issued at 238 PM MDT Wed Aug 14 2019

Flat westerly flow across the area will keep best mid level
moisture shunted fairly south of the region into the weekend,
before upper ridge amplifies over the Rockies early next week,
leading to a brief influx of deeper moisture Tue/Wed. Beginning
with Friday, low level moisture in place across the plains early
mixes eastward by late day, though perhaps just enough
instability/moisture linger for isolated afternoon/evening
convection along and east of the mountains. Best chance for a
stronger storm would be over the far east and up into nern CO,
where greater instability will reside. Sat will features a low
risk of some high based storms over the mountains and Palmer
Divide Sat as upper wave slides by to our north, while max temps
begin to creep back upward a few degf at many locations. Sun/Mon
look dry and hot, with only some very isolated weak convection
possible over the mountains Mon afternoon. Moisture returns
Tue/Wed under building high pressure aloft, with thunderstorm
chances increasing both days, especially across the mountains. Max
temps will remain warm, with lower Ark Valley again near 100f
both days.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Thursday evening)
Issued at 238 PM MDT Wed Aug 14 2019

Showers and thunderstorms will be possible thru early this evening
at KALS, KCOS and KPUB. If storms do move into the vicinity of a
terminal forecast site, the main threats will be gusty outflow winds
and lightning. Otherwise, VFR conditions are expected.  Otherwise
VFR conditions are expected tonight and Thu.  Chances for showers
and thunderstorms look lower on Thu.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...28
LONG TERM...PETERSEN
AVIATION...28

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
1105 AM MDT Wed Aug 14 2019

COZ058>089-093>099-151715-
Western Mosquito Range/East Lake County Above 11000 Feet-
Leadville Vicinity/Lake County Below 11000 Feet-
Eastern Sawatch Mountains Above 11000 Feet-
Western Chaffee County Between 9000 and 11000 Feet-
Central Chaffee County Below 9000 Feet-
Western Mosquito Range/East Chaffee County Above 9000 Feet-
Saguache County West of Continental Divide Below 10000 Feet-
Saguache County East of Continental Divide Below 10000 Feet-
La Garita Mountains Above 10000 Feet-
Upper Rio Grande Valley/Eastern San Juan Mountains Below
10000 Feet-Eastern San Juan Mountains Above 10000 Feet-
Del Norte Vicinity/Northern San Luis Valley Below 8500 Feet-
Alamosa  Vicinity/Central San Luis Valley Below 8500 Feet-
Southern San Luis Valley-
Northern Sangre de Cristo Mountains Between 8500 And 11000 Feet-
Northern Sangre de Cristo Mountains Above 11000 Feet-
Southern Sangre de Cristo Mountains Between 7500 and 11000 Feet-
Southern Sangre de Cristo Mountains Above 11000 Feet-
Northwestern Fremont County Above 8500 Feet-
Western/Central Fremont County Below 8500 Feet-
Wet Mountain Valley Below 8500 Feet-
Wet Mountains between 6300 and 10000 Feet-
Wet Mountains Above 10000 Feet-
Teller County/Rampart Range Above 7500 Feet/Pikes Peak Between
7500 And 11000 Feet-Pikes Peak Above 11000 Feet-
Canon City Vicinity/Eastern Fremont County-
Northern El Paso County/Monument Ridge/Rampart Range Below
7500 Feet-
Colorado Springs Vicinity/Southern El Paso County/Rampart Range
Below 7400 Feet-Pueblo Vicinity/Pueblo County Below 6300 Feet-
Walsenburg Vicinity/Upper Huerfano River Basin Below 7500 Feet-
Trinidad Vicinity/Western Las Animas County Below 7500 Feet-
Crowley County-La Junta Vicinity/Otero County-
Eastern Las Animas County-Western Kiowa County-
Eastern Kiowa County-Las Animas Vicinity/Bent County-
Lamar Vicinity/Prowers County-Springfield Vicinity/Baca County-
1105 AM MDT Wed Aug 14 2019

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of central...east
central...south central and southeast Colorado.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

Isolated thunderstorms are expected along the I-25 corridor, and
over the mountains and high valleys this afternoon. In the late
afternoon and evening isolated to scattered storms will be
possible, from the I-25 corridor and eastward. The main storm
threats will be lightning and gusty outflow winds. However there
will be a chance for one or two severe storms over the southeast
plains, with the main severe threats being large hail up to 1.5
inch in diameter, and 60 to 70 mph wind gusts. Locally heavy rain
will also be a threat with stronger storms.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday

Afternoon and evening thunderstorms will be possible each day ,with
the main threats being gusty winds up to 45 mph, brief moderate
rainfall and lightning. One or two severe thunderstorms will be
possible Thursday and Friday across the far eastern plains, where
hail up to around 1 inch in diameter, and wind gusts in excess of
60 mph will be possible with the stronger storms.

Another influx of monsoon moisture will spread up from the
southwest on Tuesday. This will increase thunderstorm chances
across the mountains and bring back the risk for locally heavy
rainfall.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Weather conditions that meet reporting criteria for spotters will be
possible over the southeast plains late this afternoon and this
evening.

28/28

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Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
610 PM MDT Wed Aug 14 2019

COZ087-088-150045-
Walsenburg Vicinity/Upper Huerfano River Basin Below 7500 Ft CO-
Trinidad Vicinity/Western Las Animas County Below 7500 Ft CO-
610 PM MDT Wed Aug 14 2019

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR EAST CENTRAL HUERFANO AND WEST
CENTRAL LAS ANIMAS COUNTIES UNTIL 645 PM MDT...

At 610 PM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Walsenburg, or 26 miles east of Spring Burn Scar north of Highway
160, moving southeast at 20 mph.

Nickel size hail and wind gusts of 50 to 55 mph will be possible with
this storm.

This storm will remain over mainly rural areas of east central
Huerfano and west central Las Animas Counties.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

&&

LAT...LON 3757 10480 3766 10470 3757 10416 3736 10455
TIME...MOT...LOC 0010Z 299DEG 17KT 3761 10466

Hodanish

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
630 PM MDT Wed Aug 14 2019

COZ086>088-093-094-150100-
Pueblo Vicinity/Pueblo County Below 6300 Feet CO-
Walsenburg Vicinity/Upper Huerfano River Basin Below 7500 Ft CO-
Eastern Las Animas County CO-La Junta Vicinity/Otero County CO-
Trinidad Vicinity/Western Las Animas County Below 7500 Ft CO-
630 PM MDT Wed Aug 14 2019

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHWESTERN OTERO...SOUTHEASTERN
HUERFANO...CENTRAL LAS ANIMAS AND SOUTHEASTERN PUEBLO COUNTIES UNTIL
700 PM MDT...

At 629 PM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from 14 miles south of Fowler to 8 miles north of
Tyrone to 6 miles north of Aguilar. Movement was east at 35 mph.

Penny size hail and wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with
these storms.

Locations impacted include...
Model, Delhi, Timpas, Thatcher and Tyrone.

LAT...LON 3784 10363 3744 10381 3722 10422 3746 10474
      3763 10433 3798 10408
TIME...MOT...LOC 0029Z 290DEG 30KT 3792 10402 3757 10422 3750 10462

Hodanish

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
658 PM MDT Wed Aug 14 2019

COZ088-093-094-150130-
Eastern Las Animas County CO-La Junta Vicinity/Otero County CO-
Trinidad Vicinity/Western Las Animas County Below 7500 Ft CO-
658 PM MDT Wed Aug 14 2019

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTH CENTRAL OTERO AND
NORTHEASTERN LAS ANIMAS COUNTIES UNTIL 730 PM MDT...

At 657 PM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Thatcher, or 36 miles southwest of La Junta, moving east at 30 mph.

Nickel size hail and wind gusts of 50 to 55 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Thatcher.

LAT...LON 3747 10414 3775 10392 3762 10334 3724 10371
TIME...MOT...LOC 0057Z 285DEG 27KT 3757 10395

Hodanish

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
731 PM MDT Wed Aug 14 2019

COZ094-150200-
Eastern Las Animas County CO-
731 PM MDT Wed Aug 14 2019

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR EAST CENTRAL LAS ANIMAS COUNTY
UNTIL 800 PM MDT...

At 731 PM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 18
miles southwest of Higbee, or 30 miles south of North La Junta,
moving east at 25 mph.

Penny size hail and wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with
this storm.

This storm will remain over mainly rural areas of east central Las
Animas County.

LAT...LON 3747 10380 3762 10366 3762 10325 3736 10332
TIME...MOT...LOC 0131Z 281DEG 22KT 3755 10364

Hodanish

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
757 PM MDT Wed Aug 14 2019

COZ094-099-150230-
Springfield Vicinity/Baca County CO-Eastern Las Animas County CO-
757 PM MDT Wed Aug 14 2019

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR WEST CENTRAL BACA AND EAST
CENTRAL LAS ANIMAS COUNTIES UNTIL 830 PM MDT...

At 757 PM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 12
miles north of Kim, or 39 miles south of North La Junta, moving east
at 35 mph.

Half inch hail and winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with
this storm.

This storm will remain over mainly rural areas of west central Baca
and east central Las Animas Counties.

LAT...LON 3738 10360 3753 10342 3751 10301 3724 10309
TIME...MOT...LOC 0157Z 282DEG 32KT 3743 10335

Hodanish