Severe Thunderstorm Warning 172, NWS Pueblo, CO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
300 PM MDT Mon Jul 29 2019

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 259 PM MDT Mon Jul 29 2019

...Couple days of heat start Tuesday...

Currently...An upper ridge of high pressure remains in the region,
with the center located over the Four Corners. A bit more convection
today as compared to the past few days, with showers and storms
moving almost due east at about 15 mph. Temps have climbed to near
80F for the high valleys, and into the mid 80s to mid 90s for the
plains.

Tonight and Tomorrow...The upper ridge will continue to linger,
edging to the east along the CO and NM state line over the next 24
hours. Storm activity is expected to linger well into the night,
with showers perhaps holding on until after midnight across the
eastern plains. SPC expanded the Marginal risk area to cover much of
the plains this evening, and high resolution models indicate storms
affecting the far eastern plains as late as 9 pm. Afterward, look
for clearing skies after midnight, with another round of convection
developing once again by midday Tuesday. The amount of convection
expected will be very similar to today, though as the upper high
moves east, the plume of moisture being drawn up into western CO
becomes more available. Look for overnight low temps tonight to drop
to around 50F for the high valleys, and upper 50s to lower 60s for
the plains. Maximum temps tomorrow are forecast to warm into the 80s
for the high valleys, and 90s to around 100F for the plains. Moore

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday night through Monday)
Issued at 259 PM MDT Mon Jul 29 2019

.Tuesday night and Wednesday...With modest northwest flow aloft
storms will be able to move off of the mountains during the evening
and kept some isolated pops through mid evening over the plains. On
Wednesday...ensemble mean has center of the upper high drifting
southeast to be centered near southeast Colorado. This will allow
for a plume of monsoon moisture to continue to move into the
Rockies. Core of the monsoon plume looks to stay to the west of
Colorado. Still enough moisture with weak forcing to have a risk
of some flash flooding over the eastern San Juan Mountains, and
WPC has marginal for flooding on Wednesday. Warm to hot weather
continues. With some westerly flow aloft, storms will be able to
move off of the mountains onto the plains during the evening.

.Thursday...Shortwave is forecast to move over the ridge and into
the Colorado during the day. The weak shortwave could be a
trigger to increase chances for storms especially over the I 25
corridor and onto the plains. A weak cold front could move into
northern Colorado during the day. Will have to watch that the
front could reach into El Paso and Kiowa Counties increasing
chances for convection in these regions. With increasing winds
aloft, wind shear may be strong enough to get some marginally
severe storms, especially along and north of the surface boundary.
Currently looks as if stronger shear will stay north of the
CWA. Monsoon plume continues to move into Colorado with the best
mid level moisture over the Continental Divide region.

.Friday through Monday...Upper high moves back to the Four Corners
region and meanders around the area during the weekend.  Some middle
and upper level monsoon moisture will remain in the upper high.  In
addition, the models hint at weak upslope maintaining some low level
moisture on the plains. Subtle features will determine amount of
diurnal convection and location of heavier rainfall. In
collaboration with surrounding WFOs, trimmed back POPs over the
mountains as NBM has been having a wet bias for higher PoPs. Grids
still have likely PoPs each day over the mountains. --PGW--

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Tuesday evening)
Issued at 259 PM MDT Mon Jul 29 2019

In general, expect VFR conditions across most of the forecast area
over the next 24 hours, including the three main TAf sites of KCOS,
KPUB and KALS. Showers and thunderstorms will track east across the
adjacent high valleys and plains through the afternoon and evening,
reaching the far eastern plains late tonight. Therefore, VCTS
mentioned for all three TAF sites through 02z-03z tonight. Any
storms that move across the sites will be capable of producing
erratic wind gusts up to 50 mph, brief periods of moderate rain
temporarily reducing visibilities, and small hail. Moore

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...MOORE
LONG TERM...PGW
AVIATION...MOORE

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
1119 AM MDT Mon Jul 29 2019

COZ058>089-093>099-301300-
Western Mosquito Range/East Lake County Above 11000 Feet-
Leadville Vicinity/Lake County Below 11000 Feet-
Eastern Sawatch Mountains Above 11000 Feet-
Western Chaffee County Between 9000 and 11000 Feet-
Central Chaffee County Below 9000 Feet-
Western Mosquito Range/East Chaffee County Above 9000 Feet-
Saguache County West of Continental Divide Below 10000 Feet-
Saguache County East of Continental Divide Below 10000 Feet-
La Garita Mountains Above 10000 Feet-
Upper Rio Grande Valley/Eastern San Juan Mountains Below
10000 Feet-Eastern San Juan Mountains Above 10000 Feet-
Del Norte Vicinity/Northern San Luis Valley Below 8500 Feet-
Alamosa  Vicinity/Central San Luis Valley Below 8500 Feet-
Southern San Luis Valley-
Northern Sangre de Cristo Mountains Between 8500 And 11000 Feet-
Northern Sangre de Cristo Mountains Above 11000 Feet-
Southern Sangre de Cristo Mountains Between 7500 and 11000 Feet-
Southern Sangre de Cristo Mountains Above 11000 Feet-
Northwestern Fremont County Above 8500 Feet-
Western/Central Fremont County Below 8500 Feet-
Wet Mountain Valley Below 8500 Feet-
Wet Mountains between 6300 and 10000 Feet-
Wet Mountains Above 10000 Feet-
Teller County/Rampart Range Above 7500 Feet/Pikes Peak Between
7500 And 11000 Feet-Pikes Peak Above 11000 Feet-
Canon City Vicinity/Eastern Fremont County-
Northern El Paso County/Monument Ridge/Rampart Range Below
7500 Feet-
Colorado Springs Vicinity/Southern El Paso County/Rampart Range
Below 7400 Feet-Pueblo Vicinity/Pueblo County Below 6300 Feet-
Walsenburg Vicinity/Upper Huerfano River Basin Below 7500 Feet-
Trinidad Vicinity/Western Las Animas County Below 7500 Feet-
Crowley County-La Junta Vicinity/Otero County-
Eastern Las Animas County-Western Kiowa County-
Eastern Kiowa County-Las Animas Vicinity/Bent County-
Lamar Vicinity/Prowers County-Springfield Vicinity/Baca County-
1119 AM MDT Mon Jul 29 2019

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of central...east
central...south central and southeast Colorado.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and Tonight

Scattered thunderstorms are expected this afternoon over the
mountains, high valleys and I-25 corridor. Isolated to scattered
thunderstorms are then expected to spread across portions of the
southeast plains through the evening. The main storm risks will be
lightning, gusty outflow winds up to 50 mph, and locally heavy
rain. Some of the stronger storms may produce small hail,
especially over the mountains, high valleys and portions of El
Paso County. There is the potential for one or two severe storms
this evening over Kiowa County, with hail the size of quarters and
winds around 60 mph being the main threats.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday

There will be daily chances for thunderstorms, with the highest
chances being over the mountains, high valleys and Interstate 25
corridor. The main storm risks will be lightning, gusty outflow
winds, locally heavy rain, and with stronger storms, small hail.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Weather conditions that meet reporting criteria will be possible
this afternoon and evening over the mountains, high valleys and
portions of El Paso County, and this evening over Kiowa County.

27/06

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
339 PM MDT Mon Jul 29 2019

COZ084-085-292230-
Colorado Springs Vicinity/Southern El Paso County/Rampart Range Below
7400 Ft CO-
Northern El Paso County/Monument Ridge/Rampart Range Below 7500 Ft
CO-
339 PM MDT Mon Jul 29 2019

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTH CENTRAL EL PASO COUNTY
UNTIL 430 PM MDT...

At 339 PM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Gleneagle, or 19 miles north of Colorado Springs, moving southeast at
15 mph.

Penny size hail and winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Northern Colorado Springs, Monument, Air Force Academy, Black Forest
and Gleneagle.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

To report severe weather, contact your nearest law enforcement
agency. They will relay your report to the National Weather Service
office in Pueblo.

&&

LAT...LON 3905 10448 3892 10483 3913 10488 3913 10456
TIME...MOT...LOC 2139Z 335DEG 12KT 3911 10476

MOORE

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
405 PM MDT Mon Jul 29 2019

COZ074-075-087-292245-
Southern Sangre De Cristo Mountains Between 7500 and 11000 Ft CO-
Walsenburg Vicinity/Upper Huerfano River Basin Below 7500 Ft CO-
Southern Sangre De Cristo Mountains Above 11000 Ft CO-
405 PM MDT Mon Jul 29 2019

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTH CENTRAL HUERFANO AND
WESTERN LAS ANIMAS COUNTIES UNTIL 445 PM MDT...

At 405 PM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
La Veta, or 8 miles east of Indian Creek on the southeastern Spring
Brun Scar. This storm was nearly stationary.

Half inch hail and wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with this
storm.

Locations impacted include...
La Veta and Spanish Peaks.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

To report severe weather, contact your nearest law enforcement
agency. They will relay your report to the National Weather Service
office in Pueblo.

&&

LAT...LON 3738 10504 3753 10504 3757 10483 3736 10483
TIME...MOT...LOC 2205Z 270DEG 2KT 3747 10497

MOORE

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
421 PM MDT MON JUL 29 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0416 PM     HAIL             4 SE MONUMENT           39.05N 104.81W
07/29/2019  M1.00 INCH       EL PASO            CO   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
423 PM MDT Mon Jul 29 2019

COZ060-065-069-072-073-292315-
Saguache County East of Continental Divide below 10000 Ft CO-
Del Norte Vicinity/Northern San Luis Valley Below 8500 Ft CO-
Northern Sangre de Cristo Mountains Between 8500 And 11000 Ft CO-
Northern Sangre de Cristo Mountains above 11000 Ft CO-
Eastern Sawatch Mountains above 11000 Ft CO-
423 PM MDT Mon Jul 29 2019

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHWESTERN FREMONT AND NORTH
CENTRAL SAGUACHE COUNTIES UNTIL 515 PM MDT...

At 422 PM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Bonanza, or 20 miles west of Hayden Pass Burn Scar, moving east at 10
mph.

Half inch hail and winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Bonanza and Villa Grove.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

To report severe weather, contact your nearest law enforcement
agency. They will relay your report to the National Weather Service
office in Pueblo.

&&

LAT...LON 3820 10622 3834 10623 3836 10586 3812 10586
TIME...MOT...LOC 2222Z 277DEG 7KT 3827 10614

MOORE

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
424 PM MDT MON JUL 29 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0424 PM     HAIL             4 E AIR FORCE ACADEMY   39.01N 104.79W
07/29/2019  M1.00 INCH       EL PASO            CO   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
442 PM MDT MON JUL 29 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0442 PM     HAIL             2 N BLACK FOREST        39.05N 104.70W
07/29/2019  M1.00 INCH       EL PASO            CO   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&