Severe Thunderstorm Warning 153, NWS Pueblo, CO

471 
WWUS55 KPUB 210133
SVSPUB

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
733 PM MDT Sat Jul 20 2019

COC089-210141-
/O.CAN.KPUB.SV.W.0153.000000T0000Z-190721T0145Z/
Otero CO-
733 PM MDT Sat Jul 20 2019

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR EASTERN OTERO COUNTY IS
CANCELLED...
    
The severe thunderstorm which prompted the warning has moved out of 
the warned area. Therefore, the warning has been cancelled.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 1100 PM MDT for
southeastern Colorado.

LAT...LON 3769 10335 3798 10337 3839 10338 3859 10257
      3767 10261
TIME...MOT...LOC 0131Z 248DEG 41KT 3788 10301 

$$

COC011-061-099-210145-
/O.CON.KPUB.SV.W.0153.000000T0000Z-190721T0145Z/
Prowers CO-Kiowa CO-Bent CO-
733 PM MDT Sat Jul 20 2019

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 745 PM MDT
FOR WESTERN PROWERS...WESTERN KIOWA AND BENT COUNTIES...

At 731 PM MDT, a severe thunderstorm was located 14 miles south of
John Martin Reservoir, or 25 miles southwest of Lamar, moving east 
at 45 mph. Other strong to severe storms were noted along the Kiowa 
and Bent county line, and 5 miles west of John martin Reservoir.

HAZARD...70 mph wind gusts and half dollar size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Hail damage to vehicles is expected. Expect considerable 
         tree damage. Wind damage is also likely to mobile homes, 
         roofs, and outbuildings.

Significant amounts of wind damage to trees was reported in Sugar 
City as this line of storms moved through. 

Locations impacted include...
Lamar, Las Animas, Eads, Wiley, McClave, Blue Lake, Sweetwater
Reservoir, Hasty, Neenoshe Reservoir, Neegronda Reservoir, Arlington,
Queens Reservoir, John Martin Reservoir, Caddoa and Fort Lyon.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a
building.

&&

LAT...LON 3769 10335 3798 10337 3839 10338 3859 10257
      3767 10261
TIME...MOT...LOC 0131Z 248DEG 41KT 3788 10301 

HAIL...1.25IN
WIND...70MPH
 
$$

Hodanish

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
314 PM MDT Sat Jul 20 2019

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Sunday)
Issued at 314 PM MDT Sat Jul 20 2019

Currently...

A subtle shortwave trough is advancing northeast across central
Colorado while a surface low deepens over southeast Colorado.
Increased mid-upper level moisture accompanies the shortwave as TPW
values are on the rise, just increasing above normal along the
Continental Divide. At the same time, northerly surge on the
backside of the surface low is gradually increasing surface dew
points across the Southeast Colorado plains. Increasing moisture to
go along with strong heating and subtle upper forcing has led to the
development of scattered to widespread showers and weak
thunderstorms across the high terrain early this afternoon. Activity
is just starting to expand east to the I-25 corridor, including
strong to low-end severe storms. Temperatures are around 100 across
much of the plains, and 80s to 90s in the high valleys.

Tonight...

Dew points will continue to increase across the plains under
continued northerly/northeasterly flow. This increase in moisture
along with steep lapse rates will yield favorable CAPE (2000+ ML)
across all of the southeast plains by early evening. Deep layer
shear will be marginal, with around 30 knots north of HWY 50,
decreasing to 20 knots near the CO/NM border. Given upper forcing,
abundant deep moisture, and only marginal deep layer shear, expect
multicellular thunderstorms to be the dominant storm mode as
activity spreads east to the I-25 corridor and the rest of the
eastern plains. Hi-res guidance has been consistent in producing a
line of strong storms with UH tracks developing early this evening
and sweeping east across the plains.  Expect the primary storm
threat with storms to be damaging wind gusts, but hail to the size
of quarters or so will also be possible, especially early on.
Frequent cloud to ground lightning, and locally heavy rainfall, are
also expected hazards. Given these factors, have collaborated with
SPC to issue a Severe Thunderstorm Watch (533) for all of the
southeast plains until 11 PM. By then, storms will be weakening and
exiting the far eastern plains as the atmosphere stabilizes well
behind the front and after dark.  Storm activity over the mountains
will remain sub-severe given an overall lack of moisture and
instability, and mostly done after 9 PM.

Tomorrow...

The upper ridge will center itself over the central NM/AZ border and
build over the southwest US into the Great Basin. This will cause
flow over Colorado to become more northwesterly, and weaken.
Abundant moisture will continue to wrap around the high and over
Colorado, while at the same time easterly low level flow will
driving moisture across the plains and into the eastern mountains.
Given these factors, scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop
across most of the high terrain during the afternoon, including
widespread coverage over the eastern mountains by late afternoon.
With the ridge just starting to build, northwest flow will still be
enough to push storms east onto the eastern plains. Outflow boundary
development will also aid storm development further east. Well above
normal TPW means locally heavy rainfall will be possible with this
activity, with flash flood opportunities over recent burn scars and
urban areas. CAPE will be moderate, but weak shear should limit
storm strength to strong to low-end severe.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday night through Saturday)
Issued at 314 PM MDT Sat Jul 20 2019

.Sunday Night...Models continue to focus the best chances of
precipitation over the eastern mountains and along the
Colorado/New Mexico border, behind the secondary surge of lower
level moisture on the plains. Have some concerns with convective
parameterization overdoing the QPF, but 3km NAM models still focus
precipitation in these regions. There is also a threat for flash
flooding over the burn scars with higher precipitable waters and
lower level northeast flow tending to focus convection over the
mountains. Shear is light so not anticipating much of a severe
threat.

.Monday...Surface high pressure moves onto the high plains with
upper high over the Four Corners region.  Atmosphere looks capped
over much of the eastern plains with forecast highs around 80 while
dew points remain in the 50s.  Thunderstorms chances will be the
highest over the mountains with the elevated surface heating and
pooling of moisture from the east.  With weak northerly flow aloft,
storms will have difficulty moving off of the mountains. Will once
again have to watch for flash flooding on local burn scars.

.Tuesday through Saturday...Upper high over the Four Corners region
gradually shifts to the south.  Monsoon moisture continues to flow
into the region from the west.  Over the eastern plains, surface high
moves to the east and is replaced by weak surface flow.  Subtle
features will determine favored location and amount of convection
each day, and these are tough to predict this far out.  Anticipate
diurnal convection each day with the best chances for precipitation
over and near the mountains.  Temperatures will return to more
seasonal values.  A trough passing to the north at the end of the
week could bring an increase in low level moisture for the weekend,
with weak upslope flow developing. --PGW--

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Sunday evening)
Issued at 314 PM MDT Sat Jul 20 2019

Showers and thunderstorms are expected over or near the TAF sites
this evening and again tomorrow afternoon. KCOS and KPUB will see
periodic showers and thunderstorms move over the sites between 22Z
and 03Z tonight, while activity should only move through the
vicinity of KALS. Winds will remain breezy to gusty out of the north
at KPUB and KCOS, and west at KALS, through the early evening,
becoming light later this evening. Showers and thunderstorms look
likely again tomorrow at KCOS and KPUB, mainly after 4 PM. VFR
conditions are expected most of the time at the TAF sites, though
brief periods of MVFR may occur under heavy rain.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...LINE
LONG TERM...PGW
AVIATION...LINE

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
1208 PM MDT Sat Jul 20 2019

COZ058>089-093>099-211815-
Western Mosquito Range/East Lake County Above 11000 Feet-
Leadville Vicinity/Lake County Below 11000 Feet-
Eastern Sawatch Mountains Above 11000 Feet-
Western Chaffee County Between 9000 and 11000 Feet-
Central Chaffee County Below 9000 Feet-
Western Mosquito Range/East Chaffee County Above 9000 Feet-
Saguache County West of Continental Divide Below 10000 Feet-
Saguache County East of Continental Divide Below 10000 Feet-
La Garita Mountains Above 10000 Feet-
Upper Rio Grande Valley/Eastern San Juan Mountains Below
10000 Feet-Eastern San Juan Mountains Above 10000 Feet-
Del Norte Vicinity/Northern San Luis Valley Below 8500 Feet-
Alamosa  Vicinity/Central San Luis Valley Below 8500 Feet-
Southern San Luis Valley-
Northern Sangre de Cristo Mountains Between 8500 And 11000 Feet-
Northern Sangre de Cristo Mountains Above 11000 Feet-
Southern Sangre de Cristo Mountains Between 7500 and 11000 Feet-
Southern Sangre de Cristo Mountains Above 11000 Feet-
Northwestern Fremont County Above 8500 Feet-
Western/Central Fremont County Below 8500 Feet-
Wet Mountain Valley Below 8500 Feet-
Wet Mountains between 6300 and 10000 Feet-
Wet Mountains Above 10000 Feet-
Teller County/Rampart Range Above 7500 Feet/Pikes Peak Between
7500 And 11000 Feet-Pikes Peak Above 11000 Feet-
Canon City Vicinity/Eastern Fremont County-
Northern El Paso County/Monument Ridge/Rampart Range Below
7500 Feet-
Colorado Springs Vicinity/Southern El Paso County/Rampart Range
Below 7400 Feet-Pueblo Vicinity/Pueblo County Below 6300 Feet-
Walsenburg Vicinity/Upper Huerfano River Basin Below 7500 Feet-
Trinidad Vicinity/Western Las Animas County Below 7500 Feet-
Crowley County-La Junta Vicinity/Otero County-
Eastern Las Animas County-Western Kiowa County-
Eastern Kiowa County-Las Animas Vicinity/Bent County-
Lamar Vicinity/Prowers County-Springfield Vicinity/Baca County-
1208 PM MDT Sat Jul 20 2019

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of central...east
central...south central and southeast Colorado.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight

Showers and thunderstorms will develop over the higher terrain by
midday, then increase in coverage and intensity across the
Interstate 25 corridor and the eastern plains through the
afternoon and evening. Lightning, wind gusts up to 50 mph and
periods of locally heavy rain will be possible with these storms,
and area burn scars will need to be monitored for potential flash
flooding.

A few of the storms over the plains may become severe with wind
gusts in excess of 60 mph and hail to around the size of
quarters. The best chance for severe thunderstorm activity will be
generally along and north of Highway 50.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday

Cooler temperatures in combination with scattered to numerous
primarily afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms, favoring
higher terrain locations will be possible each day from Sunday
into Friday.

The primary threats with thunderstorms will be locally heavy
rainfall, lightning, and wind gusts around 50 mph. The risk for
flash flooding on recent burn scars such as Spring, Junkins and
Hayden Pass will be elevated, initially from Sunday into Monday as
upslope flow brings increasing moisture to the region, which will
fuel thunderstorm development. In addition, any stronger storms
will be capable of generating hail to around the size of nickels
at times.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Weather conditions that meet reporting criteria for spotters will be
possible across the southeast plains this afternoon and evening.

12/12

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
618 PM MDT Sat Jul 20 2019

COZ093-094-097-099-210045-
Springfield Vicinity/Baca County CO-
Las Animas Vicinity/Bent County CO-Eastern Las Animas County CO-
La Junta Vicinity/Otero County CO-
618 PM MDT Sat Jul 20 2019

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHEASTERN OTERO...NORTHWESTERN
BACA...EAST CENTRAL LAS ANIMAS AND SOUTHWESTERN BENT COUNTIES UNTIL
645 PM MDT...

At 618 PM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 17
miles north of Kim, or 33 miles south of North La Junta, moving
northeast at 20 mph.

Nickel size hail and wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with
this storm.

This storm will remain over mainly rural areas of southeastern Otero,
northwestern Baca, east central Las Animas and southwestern Bent
Counties.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 1100 PM MDT for
southeastern Colorado.

LAT...LON 3733 10350 3754 10367 3773 10334 3746 10306
TIME...MOT...LOC 0018Z 234DEG 19KT 3749 10344

Hodanish

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
631 PM MDT SAT JUL 20 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0630 PM     FLASH FLOOD      2 W BLENDE              38.24N 104.61W
07/20/2019                   PUEBLO             CO   NWS EMPLOYEE

            EXTENSIVE FLOODING ON I-25 AT CENTRAL AVE. 6
            INCHES IS THE SHALLOWEST DEPTH IN THE AREA.

&&

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
633 PM MDT SAT JUL 20 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0600 PM     FLASH FLOOD      3 W BLENDE              38.24N 104.62W
07/20/2019                   PUEBLO             CO   NWS EMPLOYEE

            NORTHERN AVE FLOODED FROM I-25 TO PRAIRIE
            AVE. WATER IS AT LEAST AS HIGH AS THE CURBS.

&&

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
650 PM MDT SAT JUL 20 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0650 PM     FLASH FLOOD      2 NW BLENDE             38.26N 104.61W
07/20/2019                   PUEBLO             CO   TRAINED SPOTTER

            CAR COMPLETELY SUBMERGED IN WATER.

&&

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
703 PM MDT SAT JUL 20 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0700 PM     FLASH FLOOD      PUEBLO                  38.30N 104.61W
07/20/2019                   PUEBLO             CO   FIRE DEPT/RESCUE

            FLASH FLOODING ON 29TH UNDER I-25.

&&

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
704 PM MDT SAT JUL 20 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0700 PM     FLASH FLOOD      2 SSE PUEBLO            38.27N 104.61W
07/20/2019                   PUEBLO             CO   FIRE DEPT/RESCUE

            FLASH FLOODING AT SANTA FE AND CITY CENTER.

&&