River Flood Warning 6, NWS Pueblo, CO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
345 PM MDT Sun Jun 16 2019

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday)
Issued at 344 PM MDT Sun Jun 16 2019

Showers and thunderstorms continue over the higher elevations and
will begin to develop over the Plains during the beginning of the
forecast period (Sunday at 6PM MDT). There isn't a severe risk
across the region during the afternoon hours today, since the CAPE
values are below 500 J/kg over the San Luis Valley (SLV), the
mountain valleys, and the eastern Plains. The mountains will have
the most instability and have diurnally driven lifting mechanisms,
which means that there is a continued flash flood risk during the
evening hours from thunderstorm development. The thunderstorms will
dissipate before midnight. Low temperatures are expected to be right
around average, with temperatures over the Plains in the low-to-mid
50s, the SLV and upper Arkansas River Valley will be in the mid-40s,
and the mountains will range from the upper 20s to 30s.

There is a Marginal Risk for severe weather outlooked for the
eastern Plains tomorrow afternoon. A ribbon of theta-e will develop
over the I-25 corridor, amplifying CAPE values to around 1000-1500
J/kg, the hodograph reveals a curved profile with around 25 knots of
0-6km bulk shear. With both values being on the low-end, the severe
risk will remain to winds up to 60 mph and hail around 1 inch. There
is also a flash flooding risk over the Spring, Junkins, and Hayden
Pass burn scars, once again. High temperatures will be below average
once again, with temperatures ranging the low 80s over the Plains,
the mid 70s over the SLV and Upper Arkansas River Valley, and 40s to
50s over the mountains.

.LONG TERM...(Monday night through Sunday)
Issued at 344 PM MDT Sun Jun 16 2019

Will keep longer term discussion relatively brief due to ongoing
active conditions.

Recent computer simulations, PV analysis and forecast
model soundings suggest that active meteorological conditions
will continue at times over southern Colorado from later Monday
into Tuesday night, with drier and warmer conditions then
anticipated from mid to late week in advance of cooler and more
unsettled conditions returning by next weekend.

Strong to potentially severe storms are expected to be ongoing
over eastern locations by later Monday afternoon and continue into
Monday night, which matches well with SPC's Day 2 forecast of
marginal severe thunderstorms during this time-frame.

At this time, the focus for stronger to possibly severe
thunderstorms is then expected over eastern and especially far
southeastern locations on Wednesday. In addition, will continue to
monitor for the potential of moderate to heavy precipitation
causing flooding issues on the recent burn scars from Monday
afternoon into Tuesday evening.

Then, drier and warmer conditions are anticipated over southern
Colorado from Wednesday into at least Friday(helping to enhance
snow melt) as drier westerly component upper flow moves across
the region.

An uptick in convection as well as cooler temperatures should be
noted by next weekend as passing upper disturbances interacts
with northerly surface surges during this time-frame.

Warmest temperatures during the longer term are expected from
Wednesday into Friday(with projected maximum temperatures
nearing/exceeding 90F over many eastern locations). Coolest
temperatures during the longer term should be realized Tuesday
and then again next weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Monday evening)
Issued at 344 PM MDT Sun Jun 16 2019

Showers and thunderstorms will remain in the vicinity of KCOS and
KPUB during the evening hours, but they should dissipate before
midnight. Scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop during the
afternoon hours on Monday, which brings the potential for erratic
and gusty winds over KALS, KCOS, and KPUB. Lower visibilities are
possible if a storm develops over the forecast points. VFR
conditions are expected throughout the forecast period, with the
exception of if a thunderstorm develops over the forecast point.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

Flood Watch through Monday afternoon for COZ065>068-070-071.

&&

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
1115 AM MDT Sun Jun 16 2019

COZ058>089-093>099-171715-
Western Mosquito Range/East Lake County Above 11000 Feet-
Leadville Vicinity/Lake County Below 11000 Feet-
Eastern Sawatch Mountains Above 11000 Feet-
Western Chaffee County Between 9000 and 11000 Feet-
Central Chaffee County Below 9000 Feet-
Western Mosquito Range/East Chaffee County Above 9000 Feet-
Saguache County West of Continental Divide Below 10000 Feet-
Saguache County East of Continental Divide Below 10000 Feet-
La Garita Mountains Above 10000 Feet-
Upper Rio Grande Valley/Eastern San Juan Mountains Below
10000 Feet-Eastern San Juan Mountains Above 10000 Feet-
Del Norte Vicinity/Northern San Luis Valley Below 8500 Feet-
Alamosa  Vicinity/Central San Luis Valley Below 8500 Feet-
Southern San Luis Valley-
Northern Sangre de Cristo Mountains Between 8500 And 11000 Feet-
Northern Sangre de Cristo Mountains Above 11000 Feet-
Southern Sangre de Cristo Mountains Between 7500 and 11000 Feet-
Southern Sangre de Cristo Mountains Above 11000 Feet-
Northwestern Fremont County Above 8500 Feet-
Western/Central Fremont County Below 8500 Feet-
Wet Mountain Valley Below 8500 Feet-
Wet Mountains between 6300 and 10000 Feet-
Wet Mountains Above 10000 Feet-
Teller County/Rampart Range Above 7500 Feet/Pikes Peak Between
7500 And 11000 Feet-Pikes Peak Above 11000 Feet-
Canon City Vicinity/Eastern Fremont County-
Northern El Paso County/Monument Ridge/Rampart Range Below
7500 Feet-
Colorado Springs Vicinity/Southern El Paso County/Rampart Range
Below 7400 Feet-Pueblo Vicinity/Pueblo County Below 6300 Feet-
Walsenburg Vicinity/Upper Huerfano River Basin Below 7500 Feet-
Trinidad Vicinity/Western Las Animas County Below 7500 Feet-
Crowley County-La Junta Vicinity/Otero County-
Eastern Las Animas County-Western Kiowa County-
Eastern Kiowa County-Las Animas Vicinity/Bent County-
Lamar Vicinity/Prowers County-Springfield Vicinity/Baca County-
1115 AM MDT Sun Jun 16 2019

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of central...east
central...south central and southeast Colorado.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight

Scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop across the higher
terrain this afternoon, with storms spreading east over the
Interstate 25 corridor this evening. Locally heavy rainfall will be
possible today, especially across the lower eastern slopes of the
southern mountains. This will lead to the potential for flash
flooding, especially if the heavy rain falls across the Spring,
Junkins and Hayden Pass burn scars. Other storm threats today will
be frequent cloud to ground lighting, gusty outflow winds up to 45
mph and small hail.

Fast and high flows in creeks, streams and rivers will continue
across the area today, with the potential for flooding, especially
in the southwest mountains, portions of the San Luis Valley, and
along the Upper Arkansas River Valley, generally west of the Pueblo
Reservoir.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday

Scattered to numerous thunderstorms are expected across the area
Monday and Tuesday, with the greatest chance for storms over the
eastern mountains. Lightning, small hail and gusty outflow winds
will be possible with any thunderstorm that develops. Storms on
Monday that develop over the Interstate 25 corridor and southeast
Colorado plains have the potential to produce hail up to one inch
in diameter and wind gusts up to 60 mph. Heavy rainfall and flash
flooding will also be possible each day across the entire region,
with the greatest risk across the eastern mountain burn scars.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Conditions that meet reporting criteria for spotters will be
possible from Interstate 25 westward across the mountains and
interior valleys this afternoon and tonight.

SKELLY/SKELLY

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
204 PM MDT Sun Jun 16 2019

COZ081-084-162045-
Teller County/Rampart Range above 7500fT/Pike's Peak Between 7500 And
11000 Ft CO-
Northern El Paso County/Monument Ridge/Rampart Range Below 7500 Ft
CO-
204 PM MDT Sun Jun 16 2019

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHEASTERN TELLER AND
NORTHWESTERN EL PASO COUNTIES UNTIL 245 PM MDT...

At 203 PM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Palmer Lake, or 19 miles northwest of Colorado Springs, moving east
at 20 mph.

Half inch hail and winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Woodland Park, Monument, Palmer Lake and Gleneagle.

LAT...LON 3904 10473 3900 10507 3913 10509 3913 10472
TIME...MOT...LOC 2003Z 264DEG 16KT 3908 10499

KTS

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
231 PM MDT Sun Jun 16 2019

COZ081-084-085-162115-
Colorado Springs Vicinity/Southern El Paso County/Rampart Range Below
7400 Ft CO-
Teller County/Rampart Range above 7500fT/Pike's Peak Between 7500 And
11000 Ft CO-
Northern El Paso County/Monument Ridge/Rampart Range Below 7500 Ft
CO-
231 PM MDT Sun Jun 16 2019

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHWESTERN EL PASO COUNTY UNTIL
315 PM MDT...

At 231 PM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Air Force Academy, or 13 miles northwest of Colorado Springs, moving
southeast at 10 mph.

Nickel size hail and wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Northwestern Colorado Springs, Air Force Academy and Gleneagle.

LAT...LON 3894 10497 3901 10500 3905 10474 3895 10474
TIME...MOT...LOC 2031Z 295DEG 8KT 3900 10494

KTS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
315 PM MDT SUN JUN 16 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0314 PM     HAIL             5 NE MANITOU SPRINGS    38.91N 104.86W
06/16/2019  M1.00 INCH       EL PASO            CO   TRAINED SPOTTER

0310 PM     HAIL             5 S AIR FORCE ACADEMY   38.94N 104.86W
06/16/2019  M0.88 INCH       EL PASO            CO   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
328 PM MDT Sun Jun 16 2019

COZ081-085-162200-
Colorado Springs Vicinity/Southern El Paso County/Rampart Range Below
7400 Ft CO-
Teller County/Rampart Range above 7500fT/Pike's Peak Between 7500 And
11000 Ft CO-
328 PM MDT Sun Jun 16 2019

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR WEST CENTRAL EL PASO COUNTY UNTIL
400 PM MDT...

At 328 PM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
western Colorado Springs, moving southeast at 15 mph.

Penny size hail and wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Colorado Springs, Manitou Springs, Cimarron Hills and Stratmoor.

LAT...LON 3890 10490 3893 10482 3884 10469 3873 10488
TIME...MOT...LOC 2128Z 323DEG 12KT 3888 10483

KTS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
339 PM MDT SUN JUN 16 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0325 PM     HAIL             4 NE MANITOU SPRINGS    38.90N 104.85W
06/16/2019  M0.88 INCH       EL PASO            CO   PUBLIC

&&

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
356 PM MDT Sun Jun 16 2019

COZ081-085-162245-
Colorado Springs Vicinity/Southern El Paso County/Rampart Range Below
7400 Ft CO-
Teller County/Rampart Range above 7500fT/Pike's Peak Between 7500 And
11000 Ft CO-
356 PM MDT Sun Jun 16 2019

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHWESTERN EL PASO COUNTY UNTIL
445 PM MDT...

At 356 PM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
southwestern Colorado Springs, moving southeast at 15 mph.

Nickel size hail and winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Colorado Springs, Fountain, Manitou Springs, Stratmoor, Fort Carson,
Security, Peterson AFB, Security-Widefield and Cimarron Hills.

LAT...LON 3887 10496 3894 10485 3878 10456 3862 10480
TIME...MOT...LOC 2156Z 306DEG 12KT 3880 10481

KTS