Flash Flood Warning 17, NWS Pueblo, CO

203 
WGUS75 KPUB 140023
FFSPUB

Flash Flood Statement
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
623 PM MDT Sat Jul 13 2019

COC023-055-140033-
/O.CAN.KPUB.FF.W.0017.000000T0000Z-190714T0145Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Huerfano CO-Costilla CO-
623 PM MDT Sat Jul 13 2019

...THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR CENTRAL HUERFANO AND NORTHEASTERN
COSTILLA COUNTIES IS CANCELLED...

The heavy rain has ended. Flooding is no longer expected to pose a
threat. Please continue to heed any remaining road closures.

LAT...LON 3757 10517 3749 10513 3747 10521 3746 10530
      3756 10532

$$

Heavener

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
319 PM MDT Sat Jul 13 2019

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Sunday)
Issued at 244 PM MDT Sat Jul 13 2019

...Better Coverage of Storms on Sunday...

Current water vapor imagery and upper air analysis is indicating the
center of large mid level high across south central Colorado, with
weak, north to northwest, mid level steering flow in place across
eastern Colorado and weak but more south to southwest mid level flow
in place across western Colorado at this time. GOES blended total
precipitable water product is indicating PWATS between 0.5 and 0.8
inches across the region with regional radars indicating scattered
showers and storms over higher terrain this afternoon. SPC meso
analysis is indicating mixed layer capes running between 200-400
j/kg across the higher terrain this afternoon, with a pocket of 500-
1000 j/kg across the Front Range into the Pikes Peak region at this
time.

Latest models remain in good agreement of the mid level high
continuing to shunted slowly south and east through the day
tomorrow, as eastern Pacific energy across the Pacific Northwest
continues to translate across the Northern Tier. This will continue
to bring in more moisture from the Desert Southwest within the
continued weak, but more westerly mid level flow progged across the
state tomorrow.

For tonight...Should see storms diminishing through the early
evening, with latest higher res models continuing to indicate storms
across the Front Range at this time, helping to develop a few storms
across the Pikes Peak region, and have kept scattered pops in for
this area thru 03Z. With increasing moisture withing the more
westerly flow developing across the area, I have also kept isolated
pops into the overnight hours along and west of the ContDvd.

For tomorrow, increasing available moisture (PWATS progged between
0.7 and 1 inch) within the weak westerly mid level flow, combined
with strong solar heating, will allow for more widespread showers
and storms to develop across the higher terrain, with starting to
form late in the morning. With the more westerly flow, storms will
move off the higher terrain and across the interior valleys and
immediate adjacent plains through the afternoon.  Storms will
continue to slow moving, with locally heavy rain and gusty outflow
winds remaining the main storm threats, with localized flash
flooding possible if the storms move or develop across the Spring,
Junkins and Hayden Pass burn scars. With the better coverage of
storms and more convective cloud cover, temperatures are expected to
be slightly cooler than the past few days.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday night through Saturday)
Issued at 244 PM MDT Sat Jul 13 2019

Models remain consistent through the extended period with modest
ensemble spreads by the end of the period. Temperatures will
continue to be hot, and chances for precipitation go down mid to
late week.

Sunday night through Tuesday...an upper level disturbance will be
dropping south across Eastern Colorado Sunday evening. This will
lead to decent precipitation chances for much of the region
through Sunday night. Thunderstorms will likely prevail through
the evening hours, with more shower activity spreading east across
the Plains through the overnight period. At the surface a cold
front will drop south by morning, but will do little to cool us
off for Monday. On Monday and Tuesday, an upper disturbance will
be passing across Wyoming. This will likely be close enough to
clip much of the region with more showers and thunderstorms
expected over Southern Colorado. Initial development will be over
the mountains, but increasing flow aloft will help push this
activity east across the Plains for the evening hours.
Temperatures both days will reach well into the 90s with perhaps a
few low 100s across the Plains.

Wednesday...drier air and high pressure will begin to build across
Colorado on Wednesday. Isolated shower and thunderstorm activity
is expected during the afternoon, but coverage looks minimal at
this time. Temperatures will once again warm into the upper 90s to
lower 100s across the Plains.

Thursday into Saturday...high pressure will be centered over
Colorado Thursday and Friday. Models have come in dry for this
period. There could be an isolated mountain thunderstorm, but
coverage looks minimal at this time. Temperatures will be hot,
with upper 90s to lower 100s across the region. For Saturday,
energy will begin to work northward around the upper high which is
forecast to shift east into Kansas. Locations over Western
Colorado will likely see an uptick in shower and thunderstorm
activity for the afternoon and evening hours.  Mozley

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Sunday evening)
Issued at 244 PM MDT Sat Jul 13 2019

A similar weather pattern as yesterday remains in the offing, with
scattered storms developing over and near the higher terrain through
the late morning and afternoon, before diminishing through the early
evening hours. With that said, VFR conditions remain expected at
COS, PUB and ALS over the next 24 hours, with possible storms moving
off the higher terrain and across the terminals through the late
afternoon and early evening. Storms that move across the terminals
will be produce gusty outflow winds up to 50 mph, along with brief
heavy rainfall, with COS seeing the best chances of storms after 20z
thru 02Z. A better coverage of storms across the taf sites remains
in the offing for tomorrow afternoon, as mid level flow becomes more
westerly, allowing for storms to move east off of the higher
terrain.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...MW
LONG TERM...MOZLEY
AVIATION...MW

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
1155 AM MDT Sat Jul 13 2019

COZ058>089-093>099-141800-
Western Mosquito Range/East Lake County Above 11000 Feet-
Leadville Vicinity/Lake County Below 11000 Feet-
Eastern Sawatch Mountains Above 11000 Feet-
Western Chaffee County Between 9000 and 11000 Feet-
Central Chaffee County Below 9000 Feet-
Western Mosquito Range/East Chaffee County Above 9000 Feet-
Saguache County West of Continental Divide Below 10000 Feet-
Saguache County East of Continental Divide Below 10000 Feet-
La Garita Mountains Above 10000 Feet-
Upper Rio Grande Valley/Eastern San Juan Mountains Below
10000 Feet-Eastern San Juan Mountains Above 10000 Feet-
Del Norte Vicinity/Northern San Luis Valley Below 8500 Feet-
Alamosa  Vicinity/Central San Luis Valley Below 8500 Feet-
Southern San Luis Valley-
Northern Sangre de Cristo Mountains Between 8500 And 11000 Feet-
Northern Sangre de Cristo Mountains Above 11000 Feet-
Southern Sangre de Cristo Mountains Between 7500 and 11000 Feet-
Southern Sangre de Cristo Mountains Above 11000 Feet-
Northwestern Fremont County Above 8500 Feet-
Western/Central Fremont County Below 8500 Feet-
Wet Mountain Valley Below 8500 Feet-
Wet Mountains between 6300 and 10000 Feet-
Wet Mountains Above 10000 Feet-
Teller County/Rampart Range Above 7500 Feet/Pikes Peak Between
7500 And 11000 Feet-Pikes Peak Above 11000 Feet-
Canon City Vicinity/Eastern Fremont County-
Northern El Paso County/Monument Ridge/Rampart Range Below
7500 Feet-
Colorado Springs Vicinity/Southern El Paso County/Rampart Range
Below 7400 Feet-Pueblo Vicinity/Pueblo County Below 6300 Feet-
Walsenburg Vicinity/Upper Huerfano River Basin Below 7500 Feet-
Trinidad Vicinity/Western Las Animas County Below 7500 Feet-
Crowley County-La Junta Vicinity/Otero County-
Eastern Las Animas County-Western Kiowa County-
Eastern Kiowa County-Las Animas Vicinity/Bent County-
Lamar Vicinity/Prowers County-Springfield Vicinity/Baca County-
1155 AM MDT Sat Jul 13 2019

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of central...east
central...south central and southeast Colorado.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight

Isolated showers and thunderstorms developing over the mountains late
this morning, will become more widespread through the afternoon before
diminishing through the early evening hours. Isolated to scattered
thunderstorm coverage is expected over the interior valleys and the
Interstate 25 corridor during the afternoon and early evening hours,
while the far southeast Plains look to remain dry again today. With
weak steering flow aloft, storms will be slow moving with the main
threats being lightning, gusty winds up to 45 mph, and locally
heavy rainfall. If heavy rainfall develops over the Spring, Junkins,
or Hayden Pass burn scars, localized flash flooding will be possible.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday

Another round of scattered to widespread showers and thunderstorms
can be expected on Sunday, with greatest coverage over the
mountains. The main threat with thunderstorms will be locally
heavy rainfall, erratic gusty winds up to 50 mph and dangerous
cloud to ground lightning. Localized flash flooding will be
possible should a stronger storm impact one of the newer burn
scars such as Spring, Junkins and Hayden Pass.

Isolated to scattered thunderstorms will be possible Monday
through Friday with thunderstorms on a gradual decreasing trend
through mid to late week. The main risks with thunderstorms will
be erratic gusty winds up to 50 mph and lighting. Brief moderate
rainfall will be possible with the localized stronger storms.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Weather spotters will not be needed today or tonight.

23/23

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
431 PM MDT Sat Jul 13 2019

COZ081-085-132300-
Colorado Springs Vicinity/Southern El Paso County/Rampart Range Below
7400 Ft CO-
Teller County/Rampart Range above 7500fT/Pike's Peak Between 7500 And
11000 Ft CO-
431 PM MDT Sat Jul 13 2019

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHERN TELLER AND NORTHWESTERN
EL PASO COUNTIES UNTIL 500 PM MDT...

At 430 PM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Westcreek, or 26 miles northwest of Colorado Springs, moving east at
15 mph.

Half inch hail and winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Woodland Park, Green Mountain Falls, Divide, Crystola, Chipita Park
and Cascade.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

&&

LAT...LON 3888 10498 3897 10532 3913 10528 3913 10496
TIME...MOT...LOC 2230Z 279DEG 12KT 3906 10521

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