Flash Flood Warning 1, NWS Pueblo, CO

719 
WGUS75 KPUB 052121
FFSPUB

Flash Flood Statement
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
321 PM MDT Wed Jun 5 2019

COC023-055-052129-
/O.CAN.KPUB.FF.W.0001.000000T0000Z-190605T2245Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Huerfano CO-Costilla CO-
321 PM MDT Wed Jun 5 2019

...THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR SOUTH CENTRAL HUERFANO AND EAST
CENTRAL COSTILLA COUNTIES IS CANCELLED...

The heavy rain has ended. Flooding is no longer expected to pose a
threat. Please continue to heed any remaining road closures.

LAT...LON 3750 10505 3745 10502 3738 10504 3739 10513
      3742 10517 3747 10519

$$

Heavener

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
1143 AM MDT Wed Jun 5 2019

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 411 AM MDT Wed Jun 5 2019

Early this morning, southern Colorado experiencing variable
cloudiness, light winds and continued above seasonal early morning
early June temperatures.

Latest GOES satellite imagery, PV analysis, real-time data and
computer simulations indicate that closed upper low moving into west-
central New Mexico early this morning is projected to become
centered over far north-central New Mexico by later this afternoon
before shifting into the Texas Panhandle region by sunrise Thursday.

Precipitation shield with this system is expected to begin impacting
southern Colorado by later this morning and continue into this
evening with the highest potential of heavier rains expected from
this afternoon into this evening(favoring southern and western
locations), therefore will maintain the Flash Flood Watch focused on
the recent Hayden Pass, Junkins and Spring burn scars for
potential flooding issues.

In addition, the highest potential for stronger to possibly severe
thunderstorms at times are anticipated from the eastern mountains
and foothills into the southeastern Colorado plains(favoring far
eastern locations) from this afternoon into this evening, which
matches nicely with SPC's latest Marginal Day 1 Convective Outlook.

Also, cooler maximum temperatures(running below early June
climatological averages) when compared to yesterday's temperature
values are anticipated over the majority of southern Colorado today.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday)
Issued at 411 AM MDT Wed Jun 5 2019

Cut off low will move eastward from the TX Panhandle Thursday
morning into central OK by the afternoon. Far southeastern plains
may see some wrap around showers and isolated embedded
thunderstorms continue through the morning hours but activity will
be gradually declining through late morning. Residual moisture
will remain in place and with southeast upslope flow and a few
hundred J/kg of CAPE expected, should see another round of
scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms across the
mountains. Locally heavy rainfall will still be possible with the
stronger storms though threat for flash flooding looks lower due
to less upper level forcing. Thunderstorms should diminish in the
evening with loss of heating.

Flow aloft transitions to southwesterly as the next upper trough
moves into the Pacific northwest. This should start the drying and
warming trend out west, but there will still be sufficient
moisture for at least scattered thunderstorms across the
mountains. Greatest moisture and CAPE will shift across the
eastern plains, east of the I-25 corridor during the afternoon
where CAPE values of 1500 J/kg or better will be in place. Missing
ingredient for a greater severe threat appears to be shear as
values will be around 20-30 kts. Therefore, looking at mainly an
isolated strong storm or two possible along the dry line across
the eastern plains Friday afternoon and evening.

Drier and warmer conditions expected for Saturday with
temperatures pushing into the 90s across the plains. Mountain snow
melt will be ramping up again for Friday and Saturday as
temperatures will be warming into the 50s and 60s over the snow
pack. Overnight temperatures will be staying above freezing as
well.

Next upper trof will cross the northern U.S. Rockies sending a
strong cold front through the southeast plains Saturday night.
Both GFS and EC suggest some stout north winds with the frontal
passage which continue into Sunday morning. Showers and
thunderstorms will be possible behind the front...however latest
GFS scours low level moisture south of the region with Sunday
looking drier. ECMWF with its less amplified trof axis hangs onto
some low level moisture with scattered thunderstorms possible in
the afternoon as the tail end of the upper trof axis moves
through. Didn't stray far from ensemble blends for now.
Temperatures should drop back to below normal for the eastern half
of the area. Temperatures should be near normal for the mountains
and valleys. Another warming trend sets in with another cold front
possible for Tuesday. -KT

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Thursday afternoon)
Issued at 1139 AM MDT Wed Jun 5 2019

Chances for showers and thunderstorms will continue into the
evening hours but by late night, chances should end. On Thu, the
KPUB area may not see any showers or tstms, but KCOS and KALS may
see some in the vicinity in the afternoon and evening hours.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flash Flood Watch until 9 PM MDT this evening for COZ072-074-077-
079-087.

&&

SHORT TERM...77
LONG TERM...KT
AVIATION...28

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
1112 AM MDT Wed Jun 5 2019

COZ058>089-093>099-061715-
Western Mosquito Range/East Lake County Above 11000 Feet-
Leadville Vicinity/Lake County Below 11000 Feet-
Eastern Sawatch Mountains Above 11000 Feet-
Western Chaffee County Between 9000 and 11000 Feet-
Central Chaffee County Below 9000 Feet-
Western Mosquito Range/East Chaffee County Above 9000 Feet-
Saguache County West of Continental Divide Below 10000 Feet-
Saguache County East of Continental Divide Below 10000 Feet-
La Garita Mountains Above 10000 Feet-
Upper Rio Grande Valley/Eastern San Juan Mountains Below
10000 Feet-Eastern San Juan Mountains Above 10000 Feet-
Del Norte Vicinity/Northern San Luis Valley Below 8500 Feet-
Alamosa  Vicinity/Central San Luis Valley Below 8500 Feet-
Southern San Luis Valley-
Northern Sangre de Cristo Mountains Between 8500 And 11000 Feet-
Northern Sangre de Cristo Mountains Above 11000 Feet-
Southern Sangre de Cristo Mountains Between 7500 and 11000 Feet-
Southern Sangre de Cristo Mountains Above 11000 Feet-
Northwestern Fremont County Above 8500 Feet-
Western/Central Fremont County Below 8500 Feet-
Wet Mountain Valley Below 8500 Feet-
Wet Mountains between 6300 and 10000 Feet-
Wet Mountains Above 10000 Feet-
Teller County/Rampart Range Above 7500 Feet/Pikes Peak Between
7500 And 11000 Feet-Pikes Peak Above 11000 Feet-
Canon City Vicinity/Eastern Fremont County-
Northern El Paso County/Monument Ridge/Rampart Range Below
7500 Feet-
Colorado Springs Vicinity/Southern El Paso County/Rampart Range
Below 7400 Feet-Pueblo Vicinity/Pueblo County Below 6300 Feet-
Walsenburg Vicinity/Upper Huerfano River Basin Below 7500 Feet-
Trinidad Vicinity/Western Las Animas County Below 7500 Feet-
Crowley County-La Junta Vicinity/Otero County-
Eastern Las Animas County-Western Kiowa County-
Eastern Kiowa County-Las Animas Vicinity/Bent County-
Lamar Vicinity/Prowers County-Springfield Vicinity/Baca County-
1112 AM MDT Wed Jun 5 2019

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of central...east
central...south central and southeast Colorado.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

Scattered to numerous showers and embedded thunderstorms are
expected into this evening over southern Colorado. Locally heavy
rain over the eastern mountains, may affect the recent Hayden
Pass, Junkins and Spring burn scars, therefore a Flash Flood Watch
is in effect over these locations into the evening.

Across the I-25 corridor and the southeast plains, one or two
storms could become severe. Hail around the size of quarters, and
wind gusts around 60 mph, will be the primary severe storm risks.

Lightning will be a hazard with all storms. The other risks with
non-severe storms will include gusty outflow winds up to 50 mph,
and with stronger storms, there will be the potential for heavy
rain, and hail up to the size of nickels.

High and fast water flow can be expected in creeks, streams and
rivers, for at least the next several days in and near the high
country.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday

Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms will be possible
across the mountains on Thursday. The main threat with
thunderstorms will be locally heavy rainfall, dangerous cloud to
ground lightning, and wind gusts up to 45 mph. Some small hail up
to 1/2 inch in diameter will be possible with any isolated
stronger storms. Localized flash flooding will be possible on
newer burn scars if they take a direct hit from a more intense
thunderstorm.

The focus for showers and thunderstorms will shift eastward,
Friday and Saturday with the potential for a strong storm or two
across the plains. Hail up to the size of nickels and wind gusts
up to 50 mph will be the primary storm threats.

Warmer weather will spread into western areas on Friday and across
all areas on Saturday. This will lead to increased snow melt over
the mountains with creeks and rivers expected to run high.

Scattered thunderstorms return to southern Colorado for Sunday
through Tuesday, with the main risks being locally heavy
rainfall, lightning, small hail, and gusty outflow winds.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Weather conditions that meet reporting criteria for spotters will be
possible this afternoon and evening across southeast and south
central Colorado.

28/28

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
112 PM MDT Wed Jun 5 2019

COZ081-084-085-051930-
Colorado Springs Vicinity/Southern El Paso County/Rampart Range Below
7400 Ft CO-
Teller County/Rampart Range above 7500fT/Pike's Peak Between 7500 And
11000 Ft CO-
Northern El Paso County/Monument Ridge/Rampart Range Below 7500 Ft
CO-
112 PM MDT Wed Jun 5 2019

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR WEST CENTRAL EL PASO COUNTY UNTIL
130 PM MDT...

At 111 PM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Manitou Springs, or near Colorado Springs, moving west at 10 mph.

Penny size hail will be possible with this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Western Colorado Springs, Cascade and Chipita Park.

LAT...LON 3893 10482 3886 10484 3888 10500 3899 10500
TIME...MOT...LOC 1911Z 106DEG 7KT 3891 10490

28