Wind Advisory 18, NWS Phoenix, AZ

576 
WWUS75 KPSR 061202
NPWPSR

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Phoenix AZ
502 AM MST Mon May 6 2019

CAZ562-061315-
/O.EXP.KPSR.WI.Y.0018.000000T0000Z-190506T1200Z/
Imperial County Southwest-
502 AM PDT Mon May 6 2019

...WIND ADVISORY HAS EXPIRED...

$$

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Phoenix AZ
539 PM MST Sun May 5 2019

.UPDATE...Updated Aviation Discussion.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
A slow moving upper level low pressure system will move into the
Desert Southwest early this week bringing cooler and somewhat more
unsettled weather to the region. This low pressure system will
remain parked over the area through the bulk of the week, gradually
bringing slight chances for rain to higher terrain areas. High
temperatures will remain below average.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Another typical early May day continues to unfold but the layer
of high clouds passing through may be enough to keep temperatures
down a few degrees compared to yesterday. The slight ridge of high
pressure that we have been under will shift eastward as a low
pressure system slowly tracks into southern California, and
arriving here by Tuesday. For our area, that will translate into
breezy conditions this afternoon and again on Monday, with cooler
daytime temperatures. The breezy conditions will be more of a
problem in Southeast California, particularly in the southwestern
portion of Imperial County, where gusty conditions will flirt with
wind advisory conditions this evening. A wind advisory for the
area was considered but the 850mb winds on most models appear
relatively weak casting some doubt as to if those stronger wind
gusts will occur.

Tuesday will likely the coolest day of the week with temps 10 to
15 degrees cooler than today. Moisture and dynamics favorable for
shower development are lacking with this system keeping the best
rain chances north across the Arizona high country. However,a
stray shower or two across the lower desert cannot be ruled out.

The cooler weather will remain in place throughout the week as
a trough broadens over the western CONUS. An additional shortwave
will move through the area later in the week enhancing our rain
chances Thursday and Friday. The atmospheric moisture profile will
be slightly better allowing for a chance of light showers or
sprinkles. While rain this time of year is not unprecedented, it
is not too common.

Model signals are less clear heading into next weekend and beyond
but the general trends will keep temperatures below seasonal
normal values (91-94 degrees) through at least next Sunday.

&&

.AVIATION...Updated at 0030 UTC.

South-Central Arizona including KPHX, KIWA, KSDL, and KDVT:
A large area of high clouds has moved into the region bringing
cloudy to mostly cloudy skies with bkn-ovc cirrus. Isolated breezy
conditions with gusts near 15-18 kt may linger for an hour or two
during the early evening, otherwise light to moderate winds will
favor normal diurnal directions along with periods of light and
variable winds. By late Monday morning to early afternoon
occasionally breezy southwesterly winds are expected near 7-12 kt
with some gusts to 15-20 kt into the evening.

Southeast California/Southwest Arizona including KIPL and KBLH
Very strong and gusty westerly winds are expected to continue
well into the night at KIPL with gusts near 26-30 kt. Very gusty
westerly winds will then pick up again by mid morning with gusts
up to 28-34 kt by mid to late afternoon. Meanwhile very breezy
southwesterly winds will continue at KBLH this evening and pick up
again by early afternoon with gusts near 20-25 kt. Skies will be
mostly cloudy with cirrus tonight before thinning out on Monday.

Aviation Discussion not updated for amended TAFs.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Wednesday through Sunday...
No change to the outlook: Somewhat cooler temperatures, increased
humidity values, and spotty chances for sprinkles or very light
rain will affect most districts throughout the week as a series of
weak weather disturbances moves through the region. Higher
terrain north and east of Phoenix would be the most likely to
experience light rain, but wetting rains would even be unlikely.
Humidity values will only fall into a 10-20% range following fair
to good overnight recovery. With weather systems moving through,
occasional breezy afternoon winds will exist, but nothing too
unusual for the middle of spring.

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Spotter activation is not expected for the next 7 days.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...None.
CA...None.
&&

DISCUSSION...Deems
AVIATION...Sawtelle
FIRE WEATHER...MO